Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
early Friday and then move quickly westward at about 20 mph. No
development is expected during the next few days, but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
of the wave early next week while it crosses the west-central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[floridasun78]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
early Friday and then move quickly westward at about 20 mph. No
development is expected during the next few days, but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
of the wave early next week while it crosses the west-central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

same as 2pm outlook copy

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
early Friday and then move quickly westward at about 20 mph. No
development is expected during the next few days, but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
of the wave early next week while it crosses the west-central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

same as 2pm outlook copy

The 5-Day Outlook image is different, though:

[cycloneye]

Latest image of Tropical Wave as it begins to emerge from West Africa.Let's see how it does on it's very long journey.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
early Friday and then move quickly westward at about 20 mph. No
development is expected during the next few days, but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
of the wave early next week while it crosses the west-central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

same as 2pm outlook copy

The 5-Day Outlook image is different, though:

Hi my friend What do mean Abajan? in terms of path? or not?

[AutoPenalti]

Latest image of Tropical Wave as it begins to emerge from West Africa.Let's see how it does on it's very long journey.
https://i.imgur.com/FkRhvoE.jpg

MDR looks extremely dry, I wonder how it will behave under such a supressive phase.

[abajan]

same as 2pm outlook copy

The 5-Day Outlook image is different, though:

https://i.imgur.com/7YGsuFc.png

Hi my friend What do mean Abajan? in terms of path? or not?

Hi Gusty! I just meant that, unlike the text of the latest TWO, the image is not an exact duplicate of the one in the 2 PM TWO. There's a slight difference between the two 5-Day Outlook images.

[cycloneye]

Latest saved loop.

[cjrciadt]

Microwave pass yet?

[Chris90]

Microwave pass yet?

I don't think microwave passes are available until a disturbance is given an invest designation.

[1900hurricane]

[SoupBone]

Latest image of Tropical Wave as it begins to emerge from West Africa.Let's see how it does on it's very long journey.

That's further north in actual than what the NHC has it located on their 5 day.

[Gustywind]

The 5-Day Outlook image is different, though:

https://i.imgur.com/7YGsuFc.png

Hi my friend What do mean Abajan? in terms of path? or not?

Hi Gusty! I just meant that, unlike the text of the latest TWO, the image is not an exact duplicate of the one in the 2 PM TWO. There's a slight difference between the two 5-Day Outlook images.

OK thanks, you're right.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF on day 10 continues to mantain wave and ends in this position.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS of effects of wave passage thru Puerto Rico.

The
tropical wave (currently moving out of Africa now) will roll
through the area Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS is now showing
the wave to be a little less well-defined, but moisture amounts
have remained consistent, so we continue to forecast shower and
thunderstorm activity increasing Wednesday into Thursday with
diminishing activity in the early morning hours both days. This
will mean that urban and small stream flooding will be likely in
many areas during the afternoons and early evenings Wednesday and
Thursday. The GFS had been forecasting very unstable conditions,
however this latest 24/00Z run is showing only minus 7 for the
lifted index (30/18Z) rather than minus 10 and this is consistent
with the model`s weakening characterization of the passing wave.

[NDG]

Don't expect this tropical wave to be a fish, development or no development.

[cycloneye]

0/0

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move quickly westward over the tropical Atlantic at
about 20 mph during the next several days. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity may increase near the wave east of the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of next week, development of this system is
not expected through Wednesday due to its fast forward speed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Ntxw]

0/0

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move quickly westward over the tropical Atlantic at
about 20 mph during the next several days. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity may increase near the wave east of the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of next week, development of this system is
not expected through Wednesday due to its fast forward speed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

It splashed too far north where raw ssts are not nearly as warm to support it. Needs to be south of Cape Verde islands.

[chris_fit]

Wow - that went 'poof' realllll fast

[SoupBone]

0/0

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move quickly westward over the tropical Atlantic at
about 20 mph during the next several days. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity may increase near the wave east of the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of next week, development of this system is
not expected through Wednesday due to its fast forward speed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

It splashed too far north where raw ssts are not nearly as warm to support it. Needs to be south

I posted this last night, that it was much further north than the NHC had shown in their graphic. There's a wall of SAL immediately in front of it that far north.