Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS was actually quite active again with quite a few Hs hitting the SE US. Also, the 6Z GEFS is more active than at least the last 3 runs in the GOM with 3 Hs on 10/12.

[TheStormExpert]

Seeing a strong system in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range is not looking very likely, GFS and Euro are showing the shear not led up in this area. It will help in building convection and a vorticity to develop but because of the same shear it will have a hard time organizing, it will have to move out of the Caribbean. IMO.
El Nino conditions are basically here already.

Yes, the Caribbean has been hostile and full of shear all season. Better chances of a stronger system once north of 20-25N IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

The 0Z EPS was actually quite active again with quite a few Hs hitting the SE US. Also, the 6Z GEFS is more active than at least the last 3 runs in the GOM with 3 Hs on 10/12.

Could you post an image please?

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS was actually quite active again with quite a few Hs hitting the SE US. Also, the 6Z GEFS is more active than at least the last 3 runs in the GOM with 3 Hs on 10/12.

Could you post an image please?

EPS to day 15: click on Gulf for good closeup

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

GEFS: go to Tropical Tidbits

[NDG]

The 0Z EPS was actually quite active again with quite a few Hs hitting the SE US. Also, the 6Z GEFS is more active than at least the last 3 runs in the GOM with 3 Hs on 10/12.

Could you post an image please?

From day 5-15
What I notice is that the ensembles have been trending for development to deepen outside of the NW Caribbean.

[NDG]

Looking closer, the Euro shows that any improvement in the UL environment in the NW Caribbean into the eastern GOM will not be until we get into the 8-14 day range.
The low pressure that will form across the central Caribbean in a couple of days will be a sheared broad low pressure mess with all of the convection well east of it.

[LarryWx]

FV3 back to E coast (FL?) threat at 6Z it appears per 240 hour map.

[stormlover2013]

I think models are bullish right now...they are all getting weaker

[KUEFC]

FV3 back to E coast (FL?) threat at 6Z it appears per 240 hour map.

Very weak and messy though

[toad strangler]

As stated many times before, just have to wait and see. If there is one thing the models in general don't do well with at all is intensity. The calendar demands that guard is not let down.

[SFLcane]

00z EPS has an attack on florida from all sides lol...but yes just about all season the caribbean has been quite hostile.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure the 6z GFS is some of the worst convective feedback I have ever seen with it. it is barely even useful right now.

[ronjon]

00z EPS has an attack on florida from all sides lol...but yes just about all season the caribbean has been quite hostile.

Yeah likely to be a sheared mess with lopsided weather on east side if it does get going although there are a few OP models that really develop it (CMC, ICON, NAVGEM). Yes I know these are the poorer models so can't put much stock in them. Still intensity forecasts this far out are pretty worthless. Watch and wait mode especially for us Floridians.

[CourierPR]

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that the ridge over troubled water pattern that produced Gordon and Florence is showing itself again for the West Caribbean disturbance.

[otowntiger]

Seeing a strong system in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range is not looking very likely, GFS and Euro are showing the shear not led up in this area. It will help in building convection and a vorticity to develop but because of the same shear it will have a hard time organizing, it will have to move out of the Caribbean. IMO.
El Nino conditions are basically here already.

Sounds good. That’s good news!!!

[GCANE]

Many overshooting tops this morning at DMAX.
Very close to my target area of 15N 80W.
Still some UL winds over it.
Watching if it persists today.

[Aric Dunn]

Many overshooting tops this morning at DMAX.
Very close to my target area of 15N 80W.
Still some UL winds over it.
Watching if it persists today.

there is already broad low level turning. nothing organized of course but north winds along the western and sw carrib and ese to Se winds near columbia.

shear has dropped a good deal in the SW Carrib and that will expand northward today as that upper low/trough continues almost westerly at this point.

[robbielyn]

00z EPS has an attack on florida from all sides lol...but yes just about all season the caribbean has been quite hostile.

Yeah likely to be a sheared mess with lopsided weather on east side if it does get going although there are a few OP models that really develop it (CMC, ICON, NAVGEM). Yes I know these are the poorer models so can't put much stock in them. Still intensity forecasts this far out are pretty worthless. Watch and wait mode especially for us Floridians.

We get a lot of those don't we? I will take a sheared mess if we must compared to a hurricane. I work at bayfront health Brooksville and I had to work a 24 hour shift. I would again this year too if a hurricane was to be in our area. So hopefully it will be either a sheared mess of nothing at all.

[cycloneye]

Many overshooting tops this morning at DMAX.
Very close to my target area of 15N 80W.
Still some UL winds over it.
Watching if it persists today.

there is already broad low level turning. nothing organized of course but north winds along the western and sw carrib and ese to Se winds near columbia.

shear has dropped a good deal in the SW Carrib and that will expand northward today as that upper low/trough continues almost westerly at this point.

When you can Aric,post the water vapor to see where is that upper low.

[blp]

The 06Z GEFS has the strongest combined signal I have seen so far with this system and is more inline with the other models versus the OPS run which takes it over Yucatan. I expect the ops run to slowly migrate toward the GEFS.