2019 TCRs

[CrazyC83]

Confirming the $5 billion damage figure for Imelda. That would be the 2nd costliest tropical storm on record. Retirement case is legitimate...

Given the area of heavy rain on radar, I do wonder if a spot or two may have had 50 inches of rain that wasn't recorded?

[galaxy401]

Octave is out. The East Pacific is complete.

[DioBrando]

Of those remaining, what do you think the release order would be? (Doing this because someone forgot that Humberto even existed.)

Dorian
Humberto
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Sebastien

I'd put it in this order:
Nestor (early February)
Olga (early February)
Sebastien (early February)
Pablo (late February)
Humberto (March)
Dorian (June)

Does anyone want to differ?

[aspen]

Of those remaining, what do you think the release order would be? (Doing this because someone forgot that Humberto even existed.)

Dorian
Humberto
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Sebastien

I'd put it in this order:
Nestor (early February)
Olga (early February)
Sebastien (early February)
Pablo (late February)
Humberto (March)
Dorian (June)

Does anyone want to differ?

If I remember correctly, Michael’s TCR came out in April. I estimate Dorian’s will come out around the same time this year, perhaps a little later because of its much longer life history.

[galaxy401]

I don’t think any report ever got published in June (though I think some did come out in May). I’m going bold and think Dorian will come out later this month.

[Chris90]

I just went back and looked, Irma was released on March 9th, and she was a long track Cape Verde with multiple landfalls, taking place during 2017 with all those other majors like Harvey and Maria. If Irma was released then, then galaxy401's bold call for later this month for Dorian might actually happen. Personally, I think it'll be around the Ides of March for Dorian's report, but definitely not June. I expect all reports will be released by early April at the latest.

[DioBrando]

I just went back and looked, Irma was released on March 9th, and she was a long track Cape Verde with multiple landfalls, taking place during 2017 with all those other majors like Harvey and Maria. If Irma was released then, then galaxy401's bold call for later this month for Dorian might actually happen. Personally, I think it'll be around the Ides of March for Dorian's report, but definitely not June. I expect all reports will be released by early April at the latest.

I can totally see that.
I think Dorian and Humberto are the last two to come out. Here's why:

Dorian - obvious reasons
Humberto - possible upgrade, weird nature

Imagine if Humberto gets upgraded to a cat 4
He'll join the likes of Debby, that other storm in 1981 and Diana
Totally born in the wrong generation!

[BadLarry95]

Sebastian is out

[galaxy401]

There's a detailed section on the difficulties of the NHC in forecasting Sebastian due to speed and if it would get absorbed by the front.

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Pablo has been released. It first became a Subtropical storm before turning Tropical (never was a STS originally).

Imelda also got an update.

[DioBrando]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092019_Humberto.pdf

A fat 44 page report waitin' for you.

[CrazyC83]

Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.

[CrazyC83]

Only three remain. Dorian has the most information, while Nestor and Olga likely have significant track, status and intensity adjustments (particularly in terms of storm structures) that likely will bring significant in-house debates.

[DioBrando]

Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.

What storms would you say are comparable with humberto? Or is he one of a kind? Because it looks like the authorities took ages to do his report... I'm actually quite surprised he didn't get an upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.

What storms would you say are comparable with humberto? Or is he one of a kind? Because it looks like the authorities took ages to do his report... I'm actually quite surprised he didn't get an upgrade.

In the satellite era, I can't think of any that had Recon in the ET transition phase that still had bona fide major hurricane winds. Hazel 1954 seems fairly similar, but there was no satellite then to confirm its structure.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nestor

[CrazyC83]

Is the NHC still operating (in off-season mode) due to COVID-19? Or have they suspended things like report writing and planning too?

[wxman57]

Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.

[ncforecaster89]

Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.

Did they allude to any adjustments to the operational intensity estimate, by chance?

[wxman57]

Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.

Did they allude to any adjustments to the operational intensity estimate, by chance?

No, and I didn't ask.