SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan up on RAMMB-Slider
Sector: Mesoscale 1

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000

[vbhoutex]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081506&fh=6

NAM 3km just moves sort of a frontal type spin across NE FL. I think the real deal (or the almost real deal) might be next week in Texas with something coming up from the South or SSE. JMA progged to hit Phase 2 MJO which has been a good indicator of development last year and this one.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

SSSHHHH!!!! They'll hear you! LOL! Unfortunately WGOM does need to be watching. It is that time of year and several indications have shown up that something may develop in that area.

[GCANE]

Wind speeds picking up on the buoys

[GCANE]

Increasing low-level lapse rate

[GCANE]

MCS's feeding from a 5000 CAPE Ridge.
Checking Buoys, circulation is almost closed off.
Just open on the NE end of the MCS cluster.

[robbielyn]

In hernando county, nw of tampa, it is extremely moist. You could cut it with a knife. Not as humid yesterday just typical.

[Aric Dunn]

Doppler velocities is indicating that we have a circ developing. Combine it with the surface obs and its makes a decent case. It just needs more time over water and the convection to continue. It has a small window.

[GCANE]

Tyndell AFB Radar.
Storm relative velocity.
Increasing movement to the SW on the northern portion of the MCS.

[GCANE]

Doppler velocities is indicating that we have a circ developing. Combine it with the surface obs and its makes a decent case. It just needs more time over water and the convection to continue. It has a small window.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/15/ezgif-1-9a0318652f2a.gif

Just saw that too. Given the strong winds at the West Tampa and Pensacola Buoys, it looks like it may ramp up today.

[GCANE]

The MCS's closest to shore may create a positive feedback mechanism for continued development.
Downdrafts create outflow boundaries at the ocean surface.
Friction when hitting the shore will push the winds back up and create convergence at the surface hence enhancing convective development.
The contour of the Big Bend just enhances this even more.
If this hangs over the water for the next day or two, development IMHO is likely.

[Aric Dunn]

There are cells moving in wards from all quds now. Even saw a few hail indications. Very strong updrafts. Just has to maintain l..

[GCANE]

The whole MCS in Apalachee Bay may be headed back out to sea.

[NDG]

Still a very broad circulation, with a couple of mid level vortiticities, pressures remain high and have not fallen at all from 24 hours ago.
The real development comes next week from the south

[GCANE]

Tyndell AFB Radar.
Storm relative velocity.
Increasing movement to the SW on the northern portion of the MCS.

Correction - this was Moody AFB Radar

[GCANE]

Looks like a vortical hot tower may have pushed the vort down to the surface.

[GCANE]

20 knot gust just reported at the Tyndell AFB Tower

[northjaxpro]

The vort approx 70 miles south/southeast of Apalachicola looks to me trying to actually become the dominant one. It even looks to be trying to close off a circulation.

A very.broad surface circulation in Apalachee Bay late this morning.

Convection still firing.

[wxman57]

There is still nothing in the NE Gulf that looks promising as far as development. Ignore micro-swirls.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs still showing a broad circ with likely a smaller vort in there as well. . Convection has to maintain.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The air is definitely not stable in Pasco county. You could wring the moisture out with your hands its so damn humid.

We don't need anymore rain either. The stuff on the ground wont go down 3/4 of my yard has 1/2 of water in it. Mowing is impossible