2020 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Maybe I'm just bored or maybe there's something beneath the convection

[cycloneye]

This basin is well below average on ACE as of June 27 as the normal ACE is 37.4 units while 2020 is at only 7.4 units.

[mrbagyo]

This basin is well below average on ACE as of June 27 as the normal ACE is 37.4 units while 2020 is at only 7.4 units.

[Hayabusa]

Here is a summary of the outlooks issued by various organizations for the 2020 Typhoon Season. The number of tropical/named storms are forecast to be about normal or maybe even slightly above-normal, but intensity-wise, there is a high probability of a weaker than average season. Factors considered are the potential development of La Niña (or La Niña-like) conditions and possible negative IOD in the coming months.

There is only one named storm thus far (Vongfong), which also peaked as a category 3 typhoon.

Details: TSR OWS AccuWeather

https://i.imgur.com/apT7fBr.png

I’m thinking we may only get a single Big One this year in the WPac (think Megi and the 2010 season), and most of the Northern Hemisphere’s monster storms will be in the Atlantic like in 2017.

I'd rather have a 2010 and a Megi or a 2016 and a Meranti than a 2017 and a Nothing, out of those three seasons in terms of strongest TCs, 2017 WPAC ranks last as a TC lover, Lan the strongest of 2017 WPAC was overhyped by the models but didn't live up to the hype even though it got a recon.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1277874513129029634

[euro6208]

The world's most active basin seems to be on a hiatus.

It's scary. What will she do next?

On average, about four tropical storms form each July.

Maybe this year the residents can take a break?

2021 looks to be another powerful year.

Recharge time...

[euro6208]

Models keep the basin quiet.................................................................................................................insidious...

[aspen]

Models keep the basin quiet.................................................................................................................insidious...

The entire Pacific looks to be quiet this year, so it’s likely much of 2020’s biggest storms will be in the Atlantic. Think something like 2010 (very quiet Pacific) or 2005 (very active Atlantic and generally below-average Pacific).

[euro6208]

Expect the other agencies to follow suit.

[euro6208]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/BskQg5b_IvE[/youtube]

[euro6208]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1278715975496462336




Note that three of the five years ended up as hyperactive on the Atlantic side.

[euro6208]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1278715975496462336

Note that three of the five years ended up as hyperactive on the Atlantic side.

Interestingly all those years except 2017 featured an incredibly intense headliner that is off the dvorak scale striking the Philippines.

1995 Angela (+8.0 dvorak)



1998 Zeb (170 knots reanalysis?)



2006 Cimaron (Data T-number was 8.0)



2016 Meranti (tied with Haiyan as the strongest landfalling TC in world history, in terms of 1 minute.)

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1278715975496462336

Note that three of the five years ended up as hyperactive on the Atlantic side.

All except 2006 were above-average, and three of those seasons exceeded 180 ACE.

If 2020 follows the trend of these five seasons, we could see a hyperactive Atlantic and a WPac season that produces a single extremely intense (likely >160 kt) Super Typhoon.

[euro6208]

Goes to show that even during slow seasons, WPAC gonna go bonkers.

1995 35 TC, 26 TS, 15 TY, 5 STY, 4 Cat 5
1998 27 TC, 18 TS, 9 TY, 3 STY, 1 Cat 5
2006 26 TC, 22 TS, 13 TY, 5 STY, 3 Cat 5
2016 30 TC, 26 TS, 17 TY, 6 STY, 5 Cat 5
2017 33 TC, 26 TS, 13 TY, 2 STY ( No Cat 5's)

I'd hate to be in the Philippines. All data points to an extremely intense typhoon making landfall there last half of the season. Except 2017.

[euro6208]

For those that doesn't know the WPAC well, this will explain it better.

El nino increases activity, causes more longer lived and more intense TC's.

La nina tends to decrease activity and TC's develops closer to land. Less warning time. AND warm waters is displaced further west.

[euro6208]

WoW!

[Hayabusa]

The same date but last year had more pinkish spots, the same month that says El Nino ended.

[Kingarabian]

Man the WPAC and EPAC are battling it out in terms of in-activity.

[euro6208]

I wonder what TSR has in mind for the rest of the season when they release the next update this coming Thursday.

Back in May, they forecast 26/15/8 ACE 258.