Shell Mound wrote:chaser1 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Does anyone know why the EPS was initially so aggressive with this disturbance? Normally the EPS tends to be conservative vs. the GEFS. What happened?
Wind shear above 12N, SAL above 12N, it's June, Crack Cocaine - take your pick
The EPS is normally adept at forecasting short-term conditions. The EPS evinced a strong, short-term consensus for TC genesis within three days at most. It is very unusual for a normally conservative and relatively reliable dynamical suite to bust so badly within the short term, especially relative to the much less reliable GEFS. In this case the GEFS, for some reason, was much more bearish than the EPS and apparently ended up winning. I would certainly be interested in understanding what factors went into the algorithms that caused the EPS to be so bullish at first.
EPS has had its issues this year. Most of its members developed Cristobal into a sub-980 mb hurricane because they avoided land interaction. And now it seems to have been too bullish with this disturbance.
