Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn pointed that out in one of his posts and all the convection is north of their X.

No way NHC is 150 miles off. All due respect to Aric of course. This wave isn’t going to blossom well N of the Greater Antilles.

you need only to see the curvature on visible to see the wave axis extends farther north than models and where the NHC has it.

It is also slowly amplifying/sharpening.

as the old adage goes.. follow the convection....

[TheProfessor]

The strongest low level vorticity is currently over Hispaniola, but it's begun to stretch northward near the Bahamas. The thing to watch is to see if this vorticity either moves closer to the convection or if the convection begins to develop it's own vorticity that could win out. However, if the strong vorticity over Hispaniola moves off the coast and begins developing convection I could see it becoming the dominant energy and the models may be more correct with the southern solution.

[Aric Dunn]

The strongest low level vorticity is currently over Hispaniola, but it's begun to stretch northward near the Bahamas. The thing to watch is to see if this vorticity either moves closer to the convection or if the convection begins to develop it's own vorticity that could win out. However, if the strong vorticity over Hispaniola moves off the coast and begins developing convection I could see it becoming the dominant energy and the models may be more correct with the southern solution.

The tricky thing with the location over Hispaniola is that there is always a Semi-permanent vorticity off the west-nw coast of the island when there is a ESE flow.

We have seen the high terrain aid in development with this added vorticity and we have seen it tear systems apart( Hurricane Debby 2000).

[SoupBone]

12z Euro now shows a closed weak circulation coming into TX Friday night.

https://i.imgur.com/oeaE85W.png
https://i.imgur.com/btGqOVp.png

This run looks like a more potent high over SE Texas, shoving the system more towards the Corpus Christi area, rather than Houston/Galveston. Lots of rain potentially though on that northern section.

[NDG]

Latest Euro run also shows not bad UL conditions in the NW GOM late in the week before the system moves onshore.

[SoupBone]

Latest Euro run also shows not bad UL conditions in the NW GOM late in the week before the system moves onshore.

https://i.imgur.com/QZZ29Dx.png
https://i.imgur.com/PZ5Vpvs.png

Man that's way further south into the Texas coast than I had originally thought. That high better transition/expand further west for that to happen.

[Cpv17]

Latest Euro run also shows not bad UL conditions in the NW GOM late in the week before the system moves onshore.

https://i.imgur.com/QZZ29Dx.png
https://i.imgur.com/PZ5Vpvs.png

Man that's way further south into the Texas coast than I had originally thought. That high better transition/expand further west for that to happen.

We need it to go further south. Need the rains down here.

[jasons2k]

I just hope to get some rain out of it. It’s parched in my neighborhood.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas and
adjacent waters are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development of
this system over the Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida Monday, over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf
on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Aric Dunn]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas and
adjacent waters are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development of
this system over the Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida Monday, over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf
on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

https://i.imgur.com/gskI6ys.png

That is much better lol

[SoupBone]

I don't know what resolution the models are displayed on TropicalTidbits, but the 18Z GFS doesn't show anything unless I just missed it.

Ahh ok I see something coming through south of Galveston on Saturday.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas, central
and eastern Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated
with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today, over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on
Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[northjaxpro]

850 mb vorticity squarely on the Eastern Cuba island early this morning.

[NDG]

Despite the latest 0z Euro not doing much with it it acquired a few more ensemble members for development.

[Aric Dunn]

The most interesting thing this morning is the north to south inflow with the western side of that convection along the coast.

the wave axis is sharpening quite a bit more with this convective burst.

definitely need to watch this closely today for signs of slow low level flow changes.

[dantonlsu]

Will be an interesting day today.

Think we get an official invest?

[NDG]

GFS has the mid level ridge to the north not as strong as the Euro has it thus it has the TW tracking further north into SW LA/the upper TX coast, closing off a weak circulation as it makes landfall very early Friday morning.

[SoupBone]

GFS has the mid level ridge to the north not as strong as the Euro has it thus it has the TW tracking further north into SW LA/the upper TX coast, closing off a weak circulation as it makes landfall very early Friday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/ceH4jMO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/OqxcmGc.png

We can definitely use some rain, so I won't complain about that, but that's ALL this needs to be. Too early in this season for repeated threats to the Greater Houston area.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS sends this further south into the Corpus Christi area again, at 96 hours (Friday).

[davidiowx]

12Z GFS sends this further south into the Corpus Christi area again, at 96 hours (Friday).

Looks more like Galveston to me..