Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[FireRat]

All models are on board for development except the GFS, I’d bet against the GFS on this alone but also moves this wave much faster than every other model. I would think the GFS will come around to the other models the next day or 2 or it will either be right and all other models wrong or the GFS will bust badly again

True indeed, and given the GFS's track record thus far, I'd say it's questionable and we should take it with a grain of salt this season. Perhaps the corrections they made to it got rid of the phantoms but in the process also tilted the balance the other way, possibly being too "corrected" or "rigid" and leading to sniffing out fewer storms than reality. Time will tell, but yeah, I'd say the other models are probably right about this one.

[Hammy]

All models are on board for development except the GFS, I’d bet against the GFS on this alone but also moves this wave much faster than every other model. I would think the GFS will come around to the other models the next day or 2 or it will either be right and all other models wrong or the GFS will bust badly again

CMC has backed off and has it flattening out in a few days.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, Canadian backs off development. ICON may follow suit.

[ColdMiser123]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.3N 51.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2020 108 13.2N 53.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 29.07.2020 120 14.1N 57.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 29.07.2020 132 14.7N 61.6W 1003 39
0000UTC 30.07.2020 144 15.6N 65.2W 999 44

[sma10]

It's the North American models (GFS, CMC) versus European models (Icon, UK, Euro)

[caneseddy]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.3N 51.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2020 108 13.2N 53.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 29.07.2020 120 14.1N 57.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 29.07.2020 132 14.7N 61.6W 1003 39
0000UTC 30.07.2020 144 15.6N 65.2W 999 44

Has it entering the Caribbean heading WNW towards PR and Hispaniola. Seen that track many times

Let’s see if the Euro continues showing it

[Hurricaneman]

Euro has it by the Yucatán channel as a intense hurricane, basically North America models vs the world

[Shell Mound]

The past several runs of the EPS, including the latest, have been gradually trending toward a +NAO by day six, along with a westward extension or retrogression of the mid-level ridging over the Sargasso Sea, as mentioned previously. There are already hints of a cutoff low beginning to form over the lower Mississippi River valley over time. The overall evolution of the pattern would also tend to favour ridging over the Gulf of Alaska forming an Omega block with lows riding beneath and gradually being cut off. Overall, if a system were approaching the islands in this kind of pattern, it would likely pass over or very near Puerto Rico and then track toward the lower Bahamas and South Florida, given the retrogressive, blocky +NAO pattern. Most MH hits on Southeast FL during August/September tend to occur during +NAO periods. This trend needs to be watched closely. I think that future EPS runs may show westward shifts toward PR/S Bahamas/S FL, while the operational ECMWF drops its “Caribbean cruiser” in favour of a 1928- or Irma-type solution. Another possibility is a stair-stepping track into N FL or GA, similar to that of the 1898 hurricane. As of now, both the Yucatán and Carolinas-to-New-England solutions may be eclipsed.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1286446369465602053



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286503894462410752



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286506470708838400

[StruThiO]

00z EC...

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1286604676327251968

[TheStormExpert]

This is one to definitely watch!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286608583694655488




 https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1286609785429925888

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located less than 600 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Hanna, located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico
less than 300 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas.

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual
development of this system is possible by early next week when it
reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[jfk08c]

Yikes!

https://iili.io/dIKoG9.png

So if I remember correctly, a stronger storm is more influenced by atmospheric steering patterns. Which would explain why most of the runs heading towards Florida tend to be more intense. Would this be a correct assessment?

[aspen]

00z EC...

https://i.imgur.com/J3TgC9S.gif

The main Euro run has been keeping this system further south for a while now, so even if it doesn’t develop in 3-5 days, that wave might have the chance to become something in the western Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

Yikes!

https://iili.io/dIKoG9.png

ridge appears to be firm, good bet to make it at least 75W

Gonzalo energy also has to be watched carefully for gulf development

we are in primetime at least a month early

ppe , hurricane supplies should be fortified

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This one definitely looks like trouble down the road. Because of its sprawling size it will likely take a little longer to consolidate wouldn't expect any significant development until it is past 40W or so (which is what the NHC appears to be anticipating). That being said, this will have a much more favorable environment to work with compared to Gonzalo (and its larger size will likely make it less vulnerable to any impediments).

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON show development while the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM do not. There are a few GFS ensembles that show some weak development now but most continue to show nothing.

[JaxGator]

Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON show development while the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM do not. There are a few GFS ensembles that show some weak development now but most continue to show nothing.

Everyone on this forum doesn’t want a major hurricane season with potential landfalls, myself included and I’m sure that has gotten everyone a little anxious on might be to come. However, it’s not a good thing to completely ignore something that could develop regardless or a lot or no model support. Back on topic, this wave has more favorable conditions going for it than the over preforming daredevil Gonzalo (even that was impressive is to see). The lid has come off, I think it’s safe to say.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON show development while the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM do not. There are a few GFS ensembles that show some weak development now but most continue to show nothing.

The way the models are acting seems completely backwards from normal. Typically the GFS and CMC would be developing everything and the Euro and UKMET would be more conservative. Not sure what the GFS and CMC aren't seeing. Every indication is that this wave is going to be a problem. Meanwhile, the NAVGEM keeps wanting to develop Gonzalo further and send it into South Florida.

I guess that's what we get with it being 2020. Nothing is normal.