Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

EPS probability continues to rise now near 60-65%

[SFLcane]

Look who’s onboard...

[aspen]

It’ll be crazy if this ends up becoming a major as well as Zeta, because that’ll be FOUR consecutive majors, all in October-November after just one each in August and September, with three in the WCar after none in that region since 2011.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

As others have stated this is now rather strong model support for something surely more then Zeta ever had. We wait and see

[MetroMike]

As others have stated this is now rather strong model support for something surely more then Zeta ever had. We wait and see

What is the next letter in the Greek alphabet?

[ElectricStorm]

As others have stated this is now rather strong model support for something surely more then Zeta ever had. We wait and see

What is the next letter in the Greek alphabet?

Eta

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/mhQOGxx.gif

That is almost where Zeta is now?...

[SFLcane]

I think development is “likely” once again in the Caribbean. Unanimous model support right now

[ElectricStorm]

Tremendous model support for this one... Could be a serious player down the road

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

It’ll be crazy if this ends up becoming a major as well as Zeta, because that’ll be FOUR consecutive majors, all in October-November after just one each in August and September, with three in the WCar after none in that region since 2011.

Didn't Sandy briefly reach Major Hurricane status before landfall on Cuba, or does that not count as WCar?

[toad strangler]

I think development is “likely” once again in the Caribbean. Unanimous model support right now

This one gonna make me eat all my November words?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

I think development is “likely” once again in the Caribbean. Unanimous model support right now

This one gonna make me eat all my November words?

Potentially yes. I am really impressed with the model support right now. I will be watching the upper pattern quite closely in the coming week.

[Loveweather12]

What day would we know for sure this might actually develop & not ghost. The weekend? Just wondering so I know I need to take more serious as steering might be interesting

[ElectricStorm]

What day would we know for sure this might actually develop & not ghost. The weekend? Just wondering so I know I need to take more serious as steering might be interesting

I don't think this one will be a ghost since most of the models are on board this time

[SFLcane]

What day would we know for sure this might actually develop & not ghost. The weekend? Just wondering so I know I need to take more serious as steering might be interesting

With this model support across the board I find it unlikely this is a ghost. My concern is being in November the odds of a trof potentially picking this up might be higher in my opinion.

[ClarCari]

There is alot of convective waves rolling thru the MDR rn that will most likely reach the Caribbean by around the same timeframe the models are suggesting. With a favorable MJO and Kelvin Wave over this area for another week or so, it’s a safe bet something will try and spin up.

[cycloneye]

I hope this thread does not break my record of 59 pages set by the precursor of Zeta.

[aspen]

It’ll be crazy if this ends up becoming a major as well as Zeta, because that’ll be FOUR consecutive majors, all in October-November after just one each in August and September, with three in the WCar after none in that region since 2011.

Didn't Sandy briefly reach Major Hurricane status before landfall on Cuba, or does that not count as WCar?

It was in the eastern half of the Caribbean. Same with Matthew, and Otto was in the SWCar and not the typical WCar like Wilma and Delta.