Might see an invest soon.
2021 WPAC Season
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Might see an invest soon.
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
I can now see some westerly wind flow (North of West Papua and Kapingamarangi Atoll).
Time to watch the progress of the area of convection SSW of Guam
Time to watch the progress of the area of convection SSW of Guam
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Models are in good agreement that westerly winds will strengthen south of 5N by early next week.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
GFS long range confused.
00z
06z
00z
06z
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Looks like to-be Surigae is about to become a monster typhoon; all of that warm water and extremely high UOHC make me want to believe that at least a 175 mph typhoon is very possible
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Long range fantasy aka GFS
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
12z GFS 
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
18z almost the same as 12z except it is further east.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Looks like the models have backed down from any additional developments...
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
GFS hinting on possible development mid to long range for several days now.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
We now have a Cat 5 180 mph super typhoon Surigae. This is the WPAC after all, arguably the most consistently favorable basin for powerful cyclones in the entire world!
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:We now have a Cat 5 180 mph super typhoon Surigae. This is the WPAC after all, arguably the most consistently favorable basin for powerful cyclones in the entire world!
It’s most likely around 165-170 kt (190-195 mph), due to being assessed as a T#8.0 by manual and automatic Dvorak fixes. If the JTWC doesn’t pull the trigger for 18z, then it’ll probably get a massive post-season upgrade like Hagibis (140 kt —> 160 kt) and Halong (155 kt —> 165 kt) got.
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doomhaMwx
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).
^ Props to this guy!
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
2021 starts off with a bang!
Another global record!
Surigae is the most intense April typhoon on record, as well as the most intense pre-June tropical cyclone on record in the northern hemisphere.
Another global record!
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cycloneye
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Kingarabian wrote:90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).
^ Props to this guy!
Agreed. He said it on March 15 so kudos.
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 WPAC Season
wxman57 wrote:The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.
It’s funny how poorly some of these posts aged when we all thought the GFS was going way too bonkers with this system. Who would’ve thought the 888 mbar Fantasy Land run would’ve correctly predicted the exact peak?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.
I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.
I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.
I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.
I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.
I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.
I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.
I don't think anything is going to beat it this year. But there definitely will be more monsters though
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