2021 TCRs

[Ubuntwo]

And the Josh data is out for Grace in Veracruz landfall. Pressure 981 mbs and he does not recommend upping to cat 4.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1450549479531171840

On a radar loop, looks like Josh’s location got a dry slot in the south eyewall (weak side) rather than the true eye. Though 110kt was based on an extrapolation of trends from the last flight so could see a bump down to 105.

[MHC Tracking]

Likely we'll see a downgrade to 105 kt for Grace's peak wit h a 100 kt landfall after figuring in the fact he was likely in a dry slot instead of the true eye, as Ubuntwo stated

[Hammy]

My guesses for the remaining 2021 NATL TCRs:
Kate: Maybe a primary peak as a 35 kt TS added based on ASCAT data which showed 1 35 kt barb about 12 hours after the designation

There were 2-3 40kt barbs at the time they designated.

[galaxy401]

Danny's report got a small update BTW. It's just an adjustment to the storm surge levels.

[MHC Tracking]

There were 2-3 40kt barbs at the time they designated.

actually, that was at naming. There was an earlier peak, about 12 hours after it was designated as a TD, with 1 35 kt barb. It was between advisories however, and by the next advisory, the presentation had degraded.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Julan is up.

[Ubuntwo]

Tropical Storm Julan is up.

Pressure dropped a couple mb to 993 and it looks like the 50kt peak has been extended.

[MHC Tracking]

ETT was also put 6 hours later than operationally, and we had a fairly significant net ACE gain for such a short-lived storm. I expect the next TCR will likely be Kate, or possibly Claudette.

[AlphaToOmega]

Changes I would make:
1. Upgrade Invest 92L (Unnamed subtropical storm)
2. Upgrade Invest 94L (Unnamed subtropical storm)

[MHC Tracking]

AlphaToOmega wrote: Changes I would make:
1. Upgrade Invest 92L (Unnamed subtropical storm)
2. Upgrade Invest 94L (Unnamed subtropical storm)

Though I agree that 92L was likely a subtropical storm for a short while, it may not have been long enough to breach the 6 hour rule. 94L still has a good chance to be named. If it forms though, its duration will likely be extended rather significantly in its TCR.

[galaxy401]

So how much ACE it Julian gain after that report? It probably more than doubled its tiny output.

[Ubuntwo]

So how much ACE it Julian gain after that report? It probably more than doubled its tiny output.

You would be correct. Julian's ACE jumped from 0.5 to 1.1 with the TCR. The updated data is not in HURDAT yet, so if anyone wants to double check be my guest.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Enrique is up.

[MHC Tracking]

Tropical Storm Odette is up.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152021_Odette.pdf
Time while a TC was knocked down to 12 hours, a decision which seems very reasonable given the multiple LLCs it had while it was supposedly a TC in real-time.

[MarioProtVI]

Tropical Storm Odette is up.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152021_Odette.pdf
Time while a TC was knocked down to 12 hours, a decision which seems very reasonable given the multiple LLCs it had while it was supposedly a TC in real-time.

I still strongly disagree with their reanalysis given ASCAT clearly showed an elongated trough the duration of its existence. Not a TC and should have been removed from the database IMO.

[MHC Tracking]

MarioProtVI Wrote:
I still strongly disagree with their reanalysis given ASCAT clearly showed an elongated trough the duration of its existence. Not a TC and should have been removed from the database IMO.

I agree with this statement.

[Iceresistance]

Tropical Storm Odette is up.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152021_Odette.pdf
Time while a TC was knocked down to 12 hours, a decision which seems very reasonable given the multiple LLCs it had while it was supposedly a TC in real-time.

I still strongly disagree with their reanalysis given ASCAT clearly showed an elongated trough the duration of its existence. Not a TC and should have been removed from the database IMO.

I've seen Tropical Storms with Multiple LLCs before

[galaxy401]

That report probably only took a hour to complete considering this storm's very short existence.

[Hammy]

Tropical Storm Odette is up.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152021_Odette.pdf
Time while a TC was knocked down to 12 hours, a decision which seems very reasonable given the multiple LLCs it had while it was supposedly a TC in real-time.

I still strongly disagree with their reanalysis given ASCAT clearly showed an elongated trough the duration of its existence. Not a TC and should have been removed from the database IMO.

I've seen Tropical Storms with Multiple LLCs before

Cindy in 2017, quite a few storms in the Gulf actually. Those are generally large vorts and not closed in their own right, despite their appearance on satellite.

MarioProtVI Wrote:
I still strongly disagree with their reanalysis given ASCAT clearly showed an elongated trough the duration of its existence. Not a TC and should have been removed from the database IMO.

This is blatantly false as there were no full passes on the 17th, and the partial pass that led to upgrade, along with cloud motion, indicated a tighter circulation under the convection.



Even on the 18th, before it started elongating later in the afternoon, there's a clear broad but circular location--something common with disorganized subtropical systems.



That said do not understand the reasoning of going with "tropical" vs "subtropical" designation.

[Hurricane2021]

Hurricane Sam could be upgraded to Category 5 status in the Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR)?