Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

[sphelps8681]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[cycloneye]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

[Wampadawg]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

https://i.imgur.com/REKimj5.gif

This is 93L correct?

[Iceresistance]

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

https://i.imgur.com/REKimj5.gif

This is 93L correct?

93L has not been designated yet, the Tropical Wave over Africa could be the one as 93L!

[IcyTundra]

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

https://i.imgur.com/REKimj5.gif

This is 93L correct?

93L or 94L depends on if this gets designated before the wave coming off of Africa.

[cycloneye]

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

https://i.imgur.com/REKimj5.gif

This is 93L correct?

No invest yet.

[Nederlander]

Keeping an eye on it, but not too concerned with this one yet. Looks like it could be a setup where most of the rainfall stays offshore as showers have trouble with onshore flow with dry air across TX.

[IcyTundra]

Keeping an eye on it, but not too concerned with this one yet. Looks like it could be a setup where most of the rainfall stays offshore as showers have trouble with onshore flow with dry air across TX.

I'm thinking this could be similar to TS Beta from last year as Beta was dealing with a lot of dry air and wind shear but still managed to drop 10+ inches of rain across SE Texas in areas close to the coast.

[tropicwatch]

12Z Euro wants this to take a similar track to Beta from last year. Looks like the Euro wants to keep most of the highest rain totals just offshore though it does look like coastal areas in Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties could get 10+ inches of rain. The highest inland rain totals are actually in SW Louisiana with some areas getting 15+ inches of rain. Areas inland in far East Texas near Nacogdoches also receive 10+ inches of rain in this Euro run. As we all know it is close to impossible to predict where the highest rain totals will occur, but the main idea is that areas in SE Texas, E Texas, and SW Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding early next week.

Do you have a pic of the model? I am in Lumberton, Tx and very close to SW La.

Here is another one.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1559649060

[Cpv17]

Keeping an eye on it, but not too concerned with this one yet. Looks like it could be a setup where most of the rainfall stays offshore as showers have trouble with onshore flow with dry air across TX.

I'm thinking this could be similar to TS Beta from last year as Beta was dealing with a lot of dry air and wind shear but still managed to drop 10+ inches of rain across SE Texas in areas close to the coast.

West of 45 there might not be much rain. As of now I’d say the Golden Triangle area would be in the bullseye for the highest totals. Now if this system would go in more towards central Texas then all of southeast TX would be in for some high totals.

[cycloneye]

It will be 94L as 93L has been tagged for African Wave.

[tropicwatch]

It will be 94L as 93L has been tagged for African Wave.

Anybody know why it hasn't been tagged already?

[xironman]

42055 is keeping it up with westerly winds. Campeche's pressures are quite low.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[lsuhurricane]

Ummmm, this GFS run literally parallels the TX coast and becomes a hurricane. Baffling run to run consistently.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/0u4h2oy.gif

Well that's just great.

[IcyTundra]

Maybe we shouldn't write this one off as weak TS. Waters are plenty warm to support intensification and if it can find a pocket of lower wind shear I can see it getting stronger than expected.

[cycloneye]

Weathernerds has a floater for this area. Not a invest yet but getting closer to be one.