Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (40W)

[AJC3]

From what I can tell by looking at the global model H85 vort forecasts, whatever vort signature this wave has gets absorbed into wave behind it (currently near 20W) over the next 2 days. This wave may wind up still being carried in the TWDs, however, I think it'll cease to be a well-defined, trackable feature in the not too distant future. When and if that occurs, this thread will probably be locked to avoid confusion/cross-posting.

[cycloneye]

Wave now at 40W per 18z surface analysis.

[LarryWx]

From what I can tell by looking at the global model H85 vort forecasts, whatever vort signature this wave has gets absorbed into wave behind it (currently near 20W) over the next 2 days. This wave may wind up still being carried in the TWDs, however, I think it'll cease to be a well-defined, trackable feature in the not too distant future. When and if that occurs, this thread will probably be locked to avoid confusion/cross-posting.

Tony,
It is a bit confusing but what you laid out is consistent with what I've been seeing. From what the models have been showing for many days, this energy has been shown to be slowing in the E Atlantic while energy just behind it (now just offshore..the other thread) catches up to this one and it all combines into one. And then this combined energy is what has gone on to result in most of the modeled strong TCs in the W Atlantic near the end of August with some then threatening the US near the end of Aug/start of Sept.

Thanks to Tidbits, anyone can look back at runs as far back as a week and they'll see this is what those GFS runs have been doing as opposed to it just developing them from one simple AEW.

Thus, I wonder if it would be best to include some of the modeled storms that are in here with the new thread since in reality those storms all came from the same combined entity.

Edit: Upon further analysis of the old runs at Tidbits, I don't think the wave now at 40W ever had anything to do with those modeled hurricanes as those appear to me to have been generated from two packets of energy that combined east of that wave.

From my perspective, the bottom line is that most of the modeled storms posted in this thread in reality come from a combo of two pieces of energy east of here (which has been referred to as the "lead AEW" at times) and that continues to be a potential threat in the W basin near the end of Aug/start of Sept. Nothing has changed with it. The question continues to be whether or not it will eventually overcome the dryness and develop.

[AJC3]

From what I can tell by looking at the global model H85 vort forecasts, whatever vort signature this wave has gets absorbed into wave behind it (currently near 20W) over the next 2 days. This wave may wind up still being carried in the TWDs, however, I think it'll cease to be a well-defined, trackable feature in the not too distant future. When and if that occurs, this thread will probably be locked to avoid confusion/cross-posting.

Tony,
It is a bit confusing but what you laid out is consistent with what I've been seeing. From what the models have been showing for many days, this energy has been shown to be slowing in the E Atlantic while energy just behind it (now just offshore..the other thread) catches up to this one and it all combines into one. And then this combined energy is what has gone on to result in most of the modeled strong TCs in the W Atlantic near the end of August with some then threatening the US near the end of Aug/start of Sept.

Thanks to Tidbits, anyone can look back at runs as far back as a week and they'll see this is what those GFS runs have been doing as opposed to it just developing them from one simple AEW.

Thus, I wonder if it would be best to include some of the modeled storms that are in here with the new thread since in reality those storms all came from the same combined entity.

Edit: Upon further analysis of the old runs at Tidbits, I don't think the wave now at 40W ever had anything to do with those modeled hurricanes as those appear to me to have been generated from two packets of energy that combined east of that wave.

From my perspective, the bottom line is that most of the modeled storms posted in this thread in reality come from a combo of two pieces of energy east of here (which has been referred to as the "lead AEW" at times) and that continues to be a potential threat in the W basin near the end of Aug/start of Sept. Nothing has changed with it. The question continues to be whether or not it will eventually overcome the dryness and develop.

I'm having a hard time seeing the repositioning of the wave a full 7 degrees west, based off how the 12Z models initialized a sort of elongated "monsoon trough" feature over the eastern Atlantic. However, assuming that wave is actually now at 40W, then it's already is in the process of dampening out into a very minor feature. I still think some of the leftover vorticity around 30-35W gets absorbed into the wave farther east, and becomes the "weaker" lead system. The stronger TC being modeled is no doubt the wave over western Africa.

Things often get confusing in here (i.e. cross posting, and mistakes about which wave the model is developing) when there's a combination of an active wave train and shorter than normal wavelengths in the MDR. This is why we emphasized to members about keeping the thread titles current w/r/t the postion of the wave axes, especially during the peak of the CV season.

[cycloneye]

00:05 UTC discussion.

A tropical wave previously located along 33W is relocated near
40W based on the Tropical Wave Diagnostics. It axis extends from
20N southward. Limited convection is near the wave axis.

[LarryWx]

From what I can tell by looking at the global model H85 vort forecasts, whatever vort signature this wave has gets absorbed into wave behind it (currently near 20W) over the next 2 days. This wave may wind up still being carried in the TWDs, however, I think it'll cease to be a well-defined, trackable feature in the not too distant future. When and if that occurs, this thread will probably be locked to avoid confusion/cross-posting.

Tony,
It is a bit confusing but what you laid out is consistent with what I've been seeing. From what the models have been showing for many days, this energy has been shown to be slowing in the E Atlantic while energy just behind it (now just offshore..the other thread) catches up to this one and it all combines into one. And then this combined energy is what has gone on to result in most of the modeled strong TCs in the W Atlantic near the end of August with some then threatening the US near the end of Aug/start of Sept.

Thanks to Tidbits, anyone can look back at runs as far back as a week and they'll see this is what those GFS runs have been doing as opposed to it just developing them from one simple AEW.

Thus, I wonder if it would be best to include some of the modeled storms that are in here with the new thread since in reality those storms all came from the same combined entity.

Edit: Upon further analysis of the old runs at Tidbits, I don't think the wave now at 40W ever had anything to do with those modeled hurricanes as those appear to me to have been generated from two packets of energy that combined east of that wave.

I'm having a hard time seeing the repositioning of the wave a full 7 degrees west, based off how the 12Z models initialized a sort of elongated "monsoon trough" feature over the eastern Atlantic. However, assuming that wave is actually now at 40W, then it's already is in the process of dampening out into a very minor feature. I still think some of the leftover vorticity around 30-35W gets absorbed into the wave farther east, and becomes the "weaker" lead system. The stronger TC being modeled is no doubt the wave over western Africa.

Things often get confusing in here (i.e. cross posting, and mistakes about which wave the model is developing) when there's a combination of an active wave train and shorter than normal wavelengths in the MDR. This is why we emphasized to members about keeping the thread titles current w/r/t the postion of the wave axes, especially during the peak of the CV season.

This is how I'm assessing it, too. So, what do you as a moderator do with the model posts in here? Do they get moved into the wave now at 22W thread?

[AJC3]

Tony,
It is a bit confusing but what you laid out is consistent with what I've been seeing. From what the models have been showing for many days, this energy has been shown to be slowing in the E Atlantic while energy just behind it (now just offshore..the other thread) catches up to this one and it all combines into one. And then this combined energy is what has gone on to result in most of the modeled strong TCs in the W Atlantic near the end of August with some then threatening the US near the end of Aug/start of Sept.

Thanks to Tidbits, anyone can look back at runs as far back as a week and they'll see this is what those GFS runs have been doing as opposed to it just developing them from one simple AEW.

Thus, I wonder if it would be best to include some of the modeled storms that are in here with the new thread since in reality those storms all came from the same combined entity.

Edit: Upon further analysis of the old runs at Tidbits, I don't think the wave now at 40W ever had anything to do with those modeled hurricanes as those appear to me to have been generated from two packets of energy that combined east of that wave.

I'm having a hard time seeing the repositioning of the wave a full 7 degrees west, based off how the 12Z models initialized a sort of elongated "monsoon trough" feature over the eastern Atlantic. However, assuming that wave is actually now at 40W, then it's already is in the process of dampening out into a very minor feature. I still think some of the leftover vorticity around 30-35W gets absorbed into the wave farther east, and becomes the "weaker" lead system. The stronger TC being modeled is no doubt the wave over western Africa.

Things often get confusing in here (i.e. cross posting, and mistakes about which wave the model is developing) when there's a combination of an active wave train and shorter than normal wavelengths in the MDR. This is why we emphasized to members about keeping the thread titles current w/r/t the postion of the wave axes, especially during the peak of the CV season.

This is how I'm assessing it, too. So, what do you as a moderator do with the model posts in here? Do they get moved into the wave now at 22W thread?

Well, assuming the wave axis is where the 8PM TWD says it is, from here on out, we'll need to keep posts about the "lead" system shown in the models in that other thread you mentioned. What I'm going to do is lock this thread, and we'll keep any mention of this wave in the "tropical waves" thread, since there's hardly anything going on convectively out at 40W, and thus prspects for anything to come out of this wave are now virtually nil.