Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SFLcane]

If something forms it could get drawn north.

[AutoPenalti]

Rounds the ridge. yikes.

[KWT]

GFS ensembles 12z are roughly 15 out of 31 ensemble members creating *something*. Quite a few barely would qualify as a TD but I've counted them due to having 1 closed isobar like I did earlier. There are some runs that develop a hurricane like the 12z OP, though those runs are right at the top end of the guidance.

Those that do have a TS, there is probably two main camps, one that develops it and takes it northward quite quickly, the other goes more westwards before drawing northwards if it gets strong enough.

[Clearcloudz]

GEFS 150 hours out

[cycloneye]

East of The Windward Islands:
A large area of disturbed weather has formed centered several
hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. While this
system is currently disorganized, environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development in a few days when the system
approaches the Windward Islands or southeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this will have a chance to do something, might have less trouble developing than the waves further E as it's already past the TUTT.

[Clearcloudz]

GEFS 228 Hours out

[SouthFLTropics]

[cycloneye]

[WiscoWx02]

Not expecting it to hold on the models for much longer...doubt the next gfs run will even show it. Very little consistent model output on it so not really concerned about it yet.

[tropicwatch]

It does have some 925mb and 850mb vorticity.

[cycloneye]

Papín has a interesting take about this area.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1562140597107974147

[wxman57]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

[SFLcane]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

A modelcane circled by the NHC?

[BobHarlem]

12z euro is not really picking up on this, but Euro has historically done poorly with systems that come out of this ITCZ area.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1562143504863842305

[sma10]

Not expecting it to hold on the models for much longer...doubt the next gfs run will even show it. Very little consistent model output on it so not really concerned about it yet.

Agreed. Would like to see some run to run consistency. What does make this a little bit interesting is that normally these model battles are for mid-range scenarios, as in, something forecast to develop 5 days or so from now. GFS is basically staking a claim that we should be seeing signs of development/organization by tomorrow night.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1562145070345748483

[wxman57]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

A modelcane circled by the NHC?

Yeah, just like the big, strong wave to the east which the GFS had as a major hurricane. NHC now at 0%. A 20% means models indicate something may form, but development appears unlikely.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEFS is serving delicious spaghetti