Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Icon develops this wave and brings it west until the trap door opens. Pattern is way to progressive for anything to make it far west before these trofs weaken the ridge.

https://i.postimg.cc/L6ZSL4j6/icon.png

What is that in the gulf? Don’t remember anyone mentioning it

Weak low moving onshore near texas.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave. It's much further south than the ones that have fizzled.

[LarryWx]

Icon develops this wave and brings it west until the trap door opens. Pattern is way to progressive for anything to make it far west before these trofs weaken the ridge.

https://i.postimg.cc/L6ZSL4j6/icon.png

1. ICON is likely too aggressive based on its bullish bias. More likely this will just be at most a weak low near that region. If so, it could actually turn out to more dangerous.

2. With it already being mid Sept by then, progressive becomes pretty normal by that time. As far as the US is concerned, the main risk for the rest of the season is from anything forming in the W basin.

[LarryWx]

I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave. It's much further south than the ones that have fizzled.

Check out the latest SAL map. There is a strong outbreak with the accompanying stratocumulus that gets as far south as 10N just to it's NW!

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development as the system moves generally west-northwestward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be staying quite a bit farther south than the models have been saying, might this be a Caribbean cruiser if it is slow to develop

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1567968258451738625




Maybe a fish?

[AnnularCane]

Lemonhead.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development during the next several days while the
system moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/rx5hsKn.png

Bringing it down to 20% from 30% makes sense based on weaker model consensus and 20% even seems too high to me now. SAL is dominating the MDR again! The UKMET, which was the first model to develop this (12Z run of Sunday 9/4) and had all but one run do the same since has dropped it again in today's 0Z run. The non-ICON models/ensembles have hardly anything now.

Edit: 12z UKMET also doesn't have this. This one is dead, Jim, even before it ever existed!

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. No substantial development of this system is expected
through the middle of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[LarryWx]

Down to 10%.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. No substantial development of this system is expected
through the middle of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Even 10% is too high imho. But NHC prefers to knock it down gradually.

[cycloneye]

Well, at least this wave has something. 18z surface analysis.

[cycloneye]

NHC drops this wave from 8 PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 01N to
16N, with low pressure of 1007 mb along its axis near 08N. It is
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-09N between 30W-34W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are to its northeast within 30 nm of a line from 17N21W to the
Cabo Verde Islands to 13N26W and to 12N29W. No significant
development is expected of this system through the middle of
next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward.

[NDG]

0z Euro develops this TW in its 7-10 day range near the Greater Antilles with a very good UL environment, many of its ensembles as well.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF

[AutoPenalti]

Probably another case of late development and possible concern for the Islands/Bahamas and maybe SECONUS

[NDG]

The GFS shows this TW moving quickly west across the Caribbean but then it comes out with its biased development out of a disturbance from the southern Caribbean/S.A. area, but what I am taking out of it is that it also shows improving UL conditions in the western Basin, EPS also shows improving UL conditions in its 7-14 day range.