Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Blown Away]

06z GFS likes this TW.

[SFLcane]

I will say this South Florida Playing with fire with trof pattern in place.

How long do you see that holding ????

From what i can see the ridge will temporarily rebuild after Fiona moves out and another trof digs and weakens the ridge again with the break somewere near Florida.

[hurricane2025]

Such a longs ways out

[SFLcane]

Such a longs ways out

Gfs has development taking place in 72 hrs. We shall see

[hurricane2025]

I’m talking about the pattern

[SFLcane]

I’m talking about the pattern

EPS,GFS show a trof pattern which would tend to bring anything down there eventually north.

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that both the GFS and Euro show a very good UL environment for the TW once it gets into the central Caribbean and into the NW Caribbean.

Definitely a threat for areas surrounding the NW Caribbean, too early to know for sure which way it will go until we get closer to the 3 day range of reaching at least the central Caribbean.

[skyline385]

Feels like we have had a trough or a shortwave dipping low all season. Alex, Earl and Fiona all got yanked by one and that pattern is typically the most dangerous setup for Florida in October. The western Atlantic does not seem anywhere as hostile as the MDR with tons of untapped OHC so October will be a month to keep an eye out for this season.


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[SFLcane]

All in all there should be a lingering weakness over the eastern U.S. with the ridge position in the Plains.

[Iceresistance]

One thing for sure is that both the GFS and Euro show a very good UL environment for the TW once it gets into the central Caribbean and into the NW Caribbean.

Definitely a threat for areas surrounding the NW Caribbean, too early to know for sure which way it will go until we get closer to the 3 day range of reaching at least the central Caribbean.

That's the part I'm really concerned about: an organized system heading into virtually untapped waters of the Western Caribbean and exploding into an absolute monster. The latest GFS (as mentioned above) is clearly showing this scenario.

[toad strangler]

One thing for sure is that both the GFS and Euro show a very good UL environment for the TW once it gets into the central Caribbean and into the NW Caribbean.

Definitely a threat for areas surrounding the NW Caribbean, too early to know for sure which way it will go until we get closer to the 3 day range of reaching at least the central Caribbean.

That's the part I'm really concerned about: an organized system heading into virtually untapped waters of the Western Caribbean and exploding into an absolute monster. The latest GFS (as mentioned above) is clearly showing this scenario.

Quite an active pattern I'd say if this one comes to fruition somewhere in the western basin.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, GEFS has split members (again far out in time) with only 2 members hitting SFL and majority crashing into CA.

[toad strangler]

FWIW, GEFS has split members (again far out in time) with only 2 members hitting SFL

https://i.imgur.com/kaxl4Lq.gif

SFL from that direction is like cupping a 100 yard 9 iron from the rough.

[SFLcane]

EC troughs flip from friend to enemy right around 9/20 per climo. Will there be a storm? we shall see

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, GEFS has split members (again far out in time) with only 2 members hitting SFL

https://i.imgur.com/kaxl4Lq.gif

SFL from that direction is like cupping a 100 yard 9 iron from the rough.

Yeah anything at 300hrs is hard to forecast.

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

HWRF-P has a TS before crossing the Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

HWRF-P has a TS before crossing the Lesser Antilles.
https://i.imgur.com/ZzqasZY.png

Good catch... certainly getting to the point were there is more then enough model support for a lemon.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS initialized but nothing yet.

Looks like a strong TW at 48hrs.

[skyline385]

TD at 54 hours on GFS, has a very moist envelope




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