Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS very bullish… Cat 2 into SFL in 5-6 days…

Wxman 57 disagrees big time, after spending about 30 seconds looking at the setup, im with 57 on this one.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtmN2Ssz/gfs-ow850-seus-fh96-198.gif [/url]
12z GFS very bullish… Cat 2 into SFL in 5-6 days…

Wxman 57 disagrees big time, after spending about 30 seconds looking at the setup, im with 57 on this one.

I agree 100%, but it’s November and my reliable climatology methods don’t apply. When Kate was rolling in to South Florida many years ago I’m sure nobody said that will happen.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC and UKMET both have a NW moving TS centered near Cape Canaveral at hour 144 (Thursday morning). Here is the 12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 71.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2022 96 26.0N 72.6W 1007 32
0000UTC 09.11.2022 108 25.3N 74.0W 1007 35
1200UTC 09.11.2022 120 26.2N 75.1W 1006 39
0000UTC 10.11.2022 132 27.0N 78.1W 1004 40
1200UTC 10.11.2022 144 28.5N 80.8W 1003 42

[tolakram]

ICON and GFS very similar, except for the strength. I like the NAVGEM, hurricane into Georgia. lol The poor NAVGEM.

[Blown Away]

ICON and GFS very similar, except for the strength. I like the NAVGEM, hurricane into Georgia. lol The poor NAVGEM.

12z models really closing off the LLC compared to the big broad gyre in past runs.

[ronjon]

Seeing some of the globals transitioning to a more well-developed tropical cyclone over the Bahamas. I'd say given early November and climatology, we probably shouldn't be worried. At the same time, its been a rather warm October and we haven't transitioned into a robust fall pattern with long wave troughs over the eastern US. Have to watch this one as waters around the Bahamas can crank these subtropical systems into full warm core.

[cane5]

The only model I want to know about the german model UCON the only model that had it going to upper Fort Myers from day 1.

[Category5Kaiju]

Seeing some of the globals transitioning to a more well-developed tropical cyclone over the Bahamas. I'd say given early November and climatology, we probably shouldn't be worried. At the same time, its been a rather warm October and we haven't transitioned into a robust fall pattern with long wave troughs over the eastern US. Have to watch this one as waters around the Bahamas can crank these subtropical systems into full warm core.

Wow, so I'm not alone in thinking that as well. Here in Eastern Virginia, we're supposed to have several straight days of high 70s quite soon, and it honestly does not feel like November yet. I can assure you that the hurricane-snuffing pattern that typically ends a season may not have arrived yet.

[cycloneye]

Recon for Sunday afternoon. Invest comming soon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
23.0N 70.0W FOR 06/1800Z.

[Blown Away]

Recon for Sunday afternoon. Invest comming soon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
23.0N 70.0W FOR 06/1800Z.

12z UKMET

[Blown Away]

Recon for Sunday afternoon. Invest comming soon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
23.0N 70.0W FOR 06/1800Z.

I know this is all just estimates now w/o any circulation, but their initial thoughts are farther SW than 12z GFS at 72 hours...

[gatorcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtmN2Ssz/gfs-ow850-seus-fh96-198.gif [/url]
12z GFS very bullish… Cat 2 into SFL in 5-6 days…

Wxman 57 disagrees big time, after spending about 30 seconds looking at the setup, im with 57 on this one.

Wow that is certainly unexpected.
Besides the the 3-4 day of below normal temps in mid-October we have generally been above normal and lately it is more like a quasi-summer pattern.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtmN2Ssz/gfs-ow850-seus-fh96-198.gif [/url]
12z GFS very bullish… Cat 2 into SFL in 5-6 days…

Wxman 57 disagrees big time, after spending about 30 seconds looking at the setup, im with 57 on this one.

Wow that is certainly unexpected.

12z GEFS... Some Cat 1's in there now...

[jlauderdal]

Recon for Sunday afternoon. Invest comming soon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
23.0N 70.0W FOR 06/1800Z.

12z UKMET

Ukmet was solid for IAN at the end of its life.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected be
very broad and disorganized, but it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part next
week. Environmental conditions could support additional gradual
development and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[ThunderForce]

Is it becoming more likely that future Nicole may become a hurricane now? I can't say I'm looking forward to next week if that's the case.

[cycloneye]

Important key messages from NHC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is a stretch... that looks like an August-type system, not something you'd see in November.

[gatorcane]

Euro looks to be taking a step in the direction of the GFS with the system gradually transitioning to tropical it looks like and slowly approaching South Florida rather than shooting off to the NW in the Bahamas while staying weak. 0-120 hour animation below:

[jlauderdal]

Euro looks to be taking a step in the direction of the GFS with the system gradually transitioning to tropical it looks like and slowly approaching South Florida rather than shooting off to the NW in the Bahamas while staying weak. 0-120 hour animation below:

https://i.postimg.cc/dV0xF8QP/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-120.gif

its the gfs vs the euro vs wxman57