Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[CyclonicFury]

12z GFS makes this AOI a legitimate fish CV hurricane. Would be truly unprecedented for June if it verified.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

12Z GFS moves it significantly west than 0Z GFS

[GCANE]

Healthy dose of SAL in the MDR.
Likely to remain a pouch until it gets to about 40W.
Same old song and dance only a few months early.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS moves it significantly west than 0Z GFS

The 12Z GFS is way stronger than the 0Z GFS but it doesn't look to me to be further west than 0Z. Did you mean stronger?

Edit: You must mean west of the 6Z.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS moves it significantly west than 0Z GFS

The 12Z GFS is way stronger than the 0Z GFS but it doesn't look to me to be further west than 0Z. Did you mean stronger?

Edit: You must mean west of the 6Z.

Your right, its 06Z

At 6/23 00Z
06Z GFS: 987mb, 17.7N 51.5W
12Z GFS: 987mb, 17.5N 53.9W

That would be a shift of 14 miles south and 158 miles west

[NotSparta]

Up to 20/60

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
early to middle portions of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[MarioProtVI]

As if 2023 couldn’t get weirder in the Atlantic. If this becomes HURRICANE Bret of all things in the MDR I will be floored.

[GCANE]

Don't want to see anything like this get into the GOM.
Been tracking the tornado outbreaks last couple days.
7000 CAPE in the GOM!
Never seen it that high before.

[NotSparta]

Don't want to see anything like this get into the GOM.
Been tracking the tornado outbreaks last couple days.
7000 CAPE in the GOM!
Never seen it that high before.

This won't even get close to approaching the Gulf, don't worry

[OuterBanker]

Now up to 20/60
Btw is there a specific percentage of probability to determine an invest?.
Or is it simply a judgement call?

[ouragans]

Now up to 20/60
Btw is there a specific percentage of probability to determine an invest?.
Or is it simply a judgement call?

Generally, it's 20 pct at 48hrs

[LarryWx]

The earliest on record back to 1851 of a TS in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean is June 19th, set by Bret in 2017. This could come close. Next earliest is June 24th (1933). The third earliest is June 30th (Elsa of 2021).

[zzzh]

Elsa became a TS on July 1.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Of note, while early season development is not usually a sign of an active season, early season MDR development -- especially if this becomes a hurricane -- almost always is a sign.

Hurricane Bertha in 2008 is the closest analog I can think of right now.

[USTropics]

Euro shifts west with the 12z run, this could be a close scrape for the NE Caribbean with increasing ridging in the mid Atlantic before troughing off the EC picks it up:

12z Euro


Position at same time from last night's 00z:

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Elsa became a TS on July 1.

Thanks for the correction. I saw a track map at the link below with it suggesting to me that it reached TS intensity as of 0Z on July 1st, which would have still been late evening June 30th in its location. However, after your correction, I saw the advisories, which didn't have it upgraded til 5AM AST/09Z on July 1st. So, not Elsa during June.

Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png

[USTropics]

:uarrow: Elsa became a TS on July 1.

Thanks for the correction. I saw a track map at the link below with it suggesting to me that it reached TS intensity as of 0Z on July 1st, which would have still been late evening June 30th in its location. However, after your correction, I saw the advisories, which didn't have it upgraded til 5AM AST/09Z on July 1st. So, not Elsa during June.

Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png

1979 had Ana become a TS on 06/22 at 00z:

[USTropics]

Of note, while early season development is not usually a sign of an active season, early season MDR development -- especially if this becomes a hurricane -- almost always is a sign.

Hurricane Bertha in 2008 is the closest analog I can think of right now.

Seasons that had a storm form east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1989   135.1
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1964   153
1963   112.1
1961   188.9
1933   258.6
1926   229.6
1916   144
1901   99
1887   181.3
AVG ACE   160.3217391

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1669785384186785793