Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[Category5Kaiju]

It’s got pretty decent upper level support per late visibles of the Gulf. If we have a TD or TS out of this ICON is the king of the NW Gulf in 2024. Remember before dropping it for a while as much of a surface entity it had a TS right where it is last Saturday due for this upcoming Sunday. It’s back and doesn’t go anywhere for the next 5 days.

Visible Loop
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

ICON 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 83018&fh=6

After its performance with tracking Beryl, ngl, I've gained some great respect for the ICON. It seems to, sometimes, see patterns in the atmosphere that other models don't see until later for some reason.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. Surface observations at this time indicate that
pressures are relatively high in this area, and there are no signs
of a closed circulation. This system is expected to meander near
the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is
possible if it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Steve]

Steve how would the MJO keep this system stalled for that long? I do see the models keep steering extremely weak over the next 3-4 days though

I lost my link to the shaded areas for enhanced/suppressed activity when I swapped out computers and haven’t found those charts again. But Phase 4 can have activity just off the US Atlantic Coast and just east of Texas. So if the JMA is right and we are in Phase 4 longer than any of the other models are showing (it’s one of the better MJO models) then it stands to reason that you would look in favorable areas during tropical season for convection (organized or not). So I was correlating this being a prolonged low pressure right where it is while we are in Phase 4. Here’s a link to the JMA. It’s out there on an island as no other model shows Phase 4 through 9-9. It will probably correct over time and shorten time in Phase 4, but for now it looks like this system will be just off the Texas coast for at least 5-6 days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[HurricaneBrain]

00z ICON much stronger than previous runs. 999mb landfall in SWLA.

[Stratton23]

Icon has 2 feet of rain in the gulf, i suspect alot of that rain will probably be much closer to land , the icon has a weird biacy of cutting off heavy rain from moving ashore, its really weird

[Nimbus]

It’s got pretty decent upper level support per late visibles of the Gulf. If we have a TD or TS out of this ICON is the king of the NW Gulf in 2024. Remember before dropping it for a while as much of a surface entity it had a TS right where it is last Saturday due for this upcoming Sunday. It’s back and doesn’t go anywhere for the next 5 days.

Visible Loop
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

ICON 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 83018&fh=6

After its performance with tracking Beryl, ngl, I've gained some great respect for the ICON. It seems to, sometimes, see patterns in the atmosphere that other models don't see until later for some reason.

GFS forecast this area over a week ago but the lowest surface pressure is right on the coastline of southern Texas.
I was just about to congratulate the NHC for not wasting any yellow when they pulled the trigger.

Convection is picking up off south Texas this morning and the surface pressures at BZST2 are falling.
Need at least a 29.81 there to confirm the slow development trend.

This one is not likely to be a dangerous storm so its good model competition.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Teban54]

Remove the shore lines and I would have said this is a system well on its way to becoming a TC.

[Nimbus]

Its a broad area of low pressure.
Pressures are slowly coming down offshore now.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

Takes days to organize but the mid gulf buoy is also starting to fall so very shallow broad surface pressure profile.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

If this disturbance in the NW GOM were to become a TC eventually, the ICON will deserve major kudos. A whole bunch of runs in a row, including the 0Z, have shown this. I don’t recall any other global having a TC from this.

[tropicwatch]

Nice rotation in the 10m wind field this morning. Will have to see if it continues because it wasn't there a few hours ago.

[Nimbus]

Exposed low level center meandering SE off Houston.
Outflow boundaries further east but there is a track able center now.

[underthwx]

hey yall....im pretty much out of the loop on this system....but I looked at the satellite imagery of the gulf....the system looks like it's healthy?.....do yall think a tropical depression or storm will evolve from this?....I mean....just by looking at it...im wondering if recon will take a look?....thanks for any replies!....peace out yall!.....

[underthwx]

Remove the shore lines and I would have said this is a system well on its way to becoming a TC.

https://i.postimg.cc/NjBxcXV7/goes16-vis-swir-gom.gif

true that Teban....just looking at it....seems obvious...

[tropicwatch]

hey yall....im pretty much out of the loop on this system....but I looked at the satellite imagery of the gulf....the system looks like it's healthy?.....do yall think a tropical depression or storm will evolve from this?....I mean....just by looking at it...im wondering if recon will take a look?....thanks for any replies!....peace out yall!.....

I think we might see an increase in development chances from the NHC at the next TWO.

[underthwx]

hey yall....im pretty much out of the loop on this system....but I looked at the satellite imagery of the gulf....the system looks like it's healthy?.....do yall think a tropical depression or storm will evolve from this?....I mean....just by looking at it...im wondering if recon will take a look?....thanks for any replies!....peace out yall!.....

I think we might see an increase in development chances from the NHC at the next TWO.

I think so as well.....IF....anything does develop further....its my understanding from reading forecast discussions from houston galveston....and the NHC....that this system is basically not moving anywhere for the next few days?....is this correct?...and thanks for your reply tropicwatch....have an epic labor day holiday!....

[LarryWx]

ICON (12Z) has it once again while CMC, GFS, and UKMET again don’t.

[Stratton23]

I think the ICON is going to be a winner here, likely going to be a rare case where one model sees a system and the others dont, id probably put development chances up to 40-50% now, its definitely starting to look better

[underthwx]

ICON (12Z) has it once again while CMC, GFS, and UKMET again don’t.

Im good with dont Larry....its cloudy here....a bit breezy....so it's helping keep temps down....