Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I have a feeling that this will be a big one too.

[Teban54]

I have a feeling that this will be a big one too.

So far models haven't been ballistic on intensity for this one (outside of a few GFS runs), but they didn't with Helene at this lead time either. Initially, Helene was expected to be a weak TS/C1 either quickly crossing the Florida peninsula or buried in the BoC, depending on which model you looked at.

[Stratton23]

Euro 12z has a weak system approaching the middle texas coast, though not sure if that from the 2nd system or not

[Weathertracker96]

I have a feeling that this will be a big one too.

So far models haven't been ballistic on intensity for this one (outside of a few GFS runs), but they didn't with Helene at this lead time either. Initially, Helene was expected to be a weak TS/C1 either quickly crossing the Florida peninsula or buried in the BoC, depending on which model you looked at.

I agree. Climatology suggests more fronts coming and storms tracking more NE so it’ll be interesting to see what this possibly does.
Eric Webb made a tweet about a west pacific system that may affect the pattern which could lift a potential Caribbean system north early to mid October.

[Kazmit]

Kind of odd that the models are showing this getting so far west. Would think a trough would pick it up sooner at this time of year.

[Travorum]

One thing to watch with this system is the tropical wave currently in front of Joyce. It will be passing through the Caribbean at the same time as the CAG is spitting off an area of low pressure and the two may end up merging to form the system. The latitude and timing of the tropical wave seems to be one contributing factor in the run-to-run variability right now, stronger model runs have the wave either pass by early or aid in the consolidation of the CAG low, whereas weaker runs have the wave to the Northeast of the dominant low stretching out the vorticity and preventing development until the Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

One thing to watch with this system is the tropical wave currently in front of Joyce. It will be passing through the Caribbean at the same time as the CAG is spitting off an area of low pressure and the two may end up merging to form the system. The latitude and timing of the tropical wave seems to be one contributing factor in the run-to-run variability right now, stronger model runs have the wave either pass by early or aid in the consolidation of the CAG low, whereas weaker runs have the wave to the Northeast of the dominant low stretching out the vorticity and preventing development until the Gulf.

MIAMI NWS

LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION LEADING TO AND UPTICK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOCUSING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

[jlauderdal]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

EPS with a similiar idea, October is Florida's month.

[Travorum]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJyYBm9C/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-234.gif

CMC ensembles have another signal around October 10 after this, October is Octobering...

[Blown Away]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJyYBm9C/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-234.gif

EPS with a similiar idea, October is Florida's month.

12z ECENS

[canes92]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJyYBm9C/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-234.gif

No!!!!

Yes let's hope that is very wrong.

[SoupBone]

Euro 12z has a weak system approaching the middle texas coast, though not sure if that from the 2nd system or not

Texas would be incredibly rare, but with this year, I'd believe it.

[Frank P]

The 18z GFS on the AOI in the Caribbean run provides all your necessary entertainment needs for today. It's a two-part series fyi.
Part 1

Part 2

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, likely entering the Gulf of Mexico by the
end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839677235927863635



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839680731712253960

[Nimbus]

Hard to even look at these model runs but at least they are forecasting something weak and sheared.

[NDG]

Still no big development from ICON, who many trust the most, so move along
j/k

[jlauderdal]

The 18z GFS on the AOI in the Caribbean run provides all your necessary entertainment needs for today. It's a two-part series fyi.
Part 1
https://i.ibb.co/frtSWtZ/1.gif
Part 2
https://i.ibb.co/gz1tTdr/2.gif

wxman57 wont have a day off for awhile with this setup.