Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Pulled rope a dope.. It blows it up again in the Gulf very late in the run.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The 12z GFS does blow it up again in the Gulf very late in the run, though.

https://i.imgur.com/Anzvcoo.png

This post explains why the gfs is pushing it further west compared to the consensus:

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1952354802274304146

[TallyTracker]

That GFS run into Melbourne almost made my head spin. We can’t do another hurricane in central Florida again. Pray it curves OTS. I have my first born child coming in the next 24 hours. God bless everyone!

Congratulations! I had my first last year. Had to evacuate twice with my wife in the last three months due to Debby and Helene. I completely understand wanting this to stay far away!

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
currently producing minimal shower activity. As the wave moves
west-northwestward over the next few days, environmental conditions
are forecast to become favorable for gradual development. A tropical
depression could form by the latter portion of this week as the
system continues moving generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Fancy1002]

12z Euro AI looks interesting. Unfortunately, it ends before we can see whether it continues on or turns north.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro AI looks interesting. Unfortunately, it ends before we can see whether it continues on or turns north.

FWIW that's not the TWO area, it's the storm east of that... still in Africa that gets to the Bahamas.

The 12z Euro AI takes the area for the thread and recurves it very weakly east of Bermuda. Same with the operational Euro, doesn't develop it at all, and stays east of Bermuda. (12z euro takes the one behind it into the Bahamas though... as a cat 5, image in the global model thread)

[Stratton23]

EPS/ Euro AIFS ensembles remain exceptionally aggressive with this wave, spread from mexico to out to sea though lol

[WeatherBoy2000]

Andy now casting doubts on development, says stability was once again underestimated by models:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854



Imo this not developing out in the mdr may not be a good thing for impacts as it could mean delayed development instead (see recent gfs runs).

[cycloneye]

No change at 8 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of
this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Andy now casting doubts on development, says stability was once again underestimated by models:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854



Imo this not developing out in the mdr may not be a good thing for impacts as it could mean delayed development instead (see recent gfs runs).

18z Euro kind of went back to showing a more coherent entity eventually forming as it lifts out of the MDR after two straight runs of no development interestingly enough.

[chaser1]

Andy now casting doubts on development, says stability was once again underestimated by models:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854



Imo this not developing out in the mdr may not be a good thing for impacts as it could mean delayed development instead (see recent gfs runs).

That is a potential outcome.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS is way further east than previous runs, recurves near Bermuda

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS is far less active with this AEW than it was on Friday, when it had developed 50% of the members and with a good portion of these threatening the Conus with a hurricane within 8/14-16. Now it has very few members developing and has delayed the main threat to the Conus til the followup AEW.

[Nimbus]

0z GFS is way further east than previous runs, recurves near Bermuda

So GFS joining the other models with an early recurve scenario.
Ridging may close the door again for the following wave though, and at the start of the Cape Verde season lower latitude tracks usually have a more favorable environment.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS with a huge shift west


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[kevin]

06z GFS, MH landfall in North Carolina.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily
to the southwest of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over
the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Bigtenfan]

I am a little surprised that this has stayed at 50% for several TWOs in a row. Normally once it hits 50% it goes up from there rather quickly.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I am a little surprised that this has stayed at 50% for several TWOs in a row. Normally once it hits 50% it goes up from there rather quickly.

Because model support has generally gone down, at least in the short term. No indication this is developing anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

Some more convection with the wave.