Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[tropicwatch]

Pressures are 1008-1011mb in the vicinity of the tropical wave coming off of Africa. Pressures have also come down across the MDR.

[GCANE]

No lemon yet for wave at the 8 AM TWO.

If NHC posts a lemon before it hits the water, then I know we are in trouble.

[cycloneye]

There is a spin with the wave.

[chris_fit]

There is a spin with the wave.

https://i.imgur.com/TWktZnb.gif

So much energy and moisture. This will be an interesting one!

[tropicwatch]

Convection is currently waning, probably because of the SAL it is running into.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection waning is not surprising, it's not expected to develop until late next week. That's when we know if the mid-range models are correct.

[Cpv17]

The longer it takes to develop, the further west it likely gets, just saying!

[LAF92]

The longer it takes to develop, the further west it likely gets, just saying!

I agree, going to be a long next 7 days of model watching as it’ll take that long to materialize

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1953802678737174991

[GCANE]

Large surge of water vapor across the Sahara into the Med.
Driven in large part by the low NW of the Canary's

[IsabelaWeather]

Convection is currently waning, probably because of the SAL it is running into.

Convection almost always pulses down upon splashdown. Im sure youve been here long enough to watch this happen to almost every wave.

[lsuhurricane]

12z ICON indicates both a further west and weaker solution than its 0z run. East Coast ridge filling in with the coastal low deteriorating. All about timing!

[mpic]

One thing is certain. It's time to start paying attention ion. I usually stay prepared with food anyway, but need to review everything else.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs is trying to develop it this on the (10th) Sunday/Monday a little early and getting over the Cabo Verde. (TS on Tuesday) Not sure it'll get there, but that's a very notable difference from the prior few runs. New lemon at 2 based on this alone probably.

TS on Tuesday:

[TampaWxLurker]

GFS takes it on a beeline WNW over the CV islands through 96 hours.

[lsuhurricane]

One thing is certain on this GFS run, no lingering low-pressure systems to its north. Ridging is fairly dominant.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is likely the 1st with a TD from this as it forms in only 114 hours (thus lemon-worthy). After sliding just N of the N Leewards, it ends the run approaching TS strength (33 knts/38 mph winds) 430 miles ENE of PR moving WNW at a pretty brisk 18 mph. Will have to wait for maps to get better idea of whether or not its implying it would likely recurve offshore the Conus

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.8N 46.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2025 120 16.1N 48.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 132 17.8N 51.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 144 18.9N 54.9W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 156 20.3N 57.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 168 21.4N 60.9W 1007 33

[Ian2401]

Watching the GFS run come in. Significantly stronger in the near-short term. Anxiously awaiting to see how much it blows once it gets west. One benefit of a stronger storm earlier is that it will naturally get tugged more north via beta drift. Ridging still looks strong, so it's going to get west - question is how far and will there be an escape route? It is already at 20N at the last frame I can see, so generally it will be difficult to get all the way to the CONUS without really anomalously strong ridging. Track almost looks similar to Irma, except Irma famously had insanely strong high pressure build in to its north that actually shoved the storm SW, losing about 2.5deg of latitude in the process.

[Fancy1002]

Watching the GFS run come in. Significantly stronger in the near-short term. Anxiously awaiting to see how much it blows once it gets west. One benefit of a stronger storm earlier is that it will naturally get tugged more north via beta drift. Ridging still looks strong, so it's going to get west - question is how far and will there be an escape route? It is already at 20N at the last frame I can see, so generally it will be difficult to get all the way to the CONUS without really anomalously strong ridging. Track almost looks similar to Irma, except Irma famously had insanely strong high pressure build in to its north that actually shoved the storm SW, losing about 2.5deg of latitude in the process.

I remember in one of my college classes I think during 2018 or 2019, I mentioned how thankful I was that Irma spent so long hugging the coastline of Cuba, because that prevented Irma from being a strong cat five at landfall in Florida rather than a weakening cat four. That caused one of my classmates to basically say don’t you care about the people in Cuba, and all I could say was I guess but I care about us more.

[StPeteMike]

Not buying the quick in development that the GFS is indicating. There’s a lot of Saharan Dust out ahead of it that will likely impede such development early on. Development likely won’t come together until it gets to 50W, imo.