Tropical Wave well south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[floridasun]

that be good strong earlier it be better it will move out to sea if get stronger earlier

[chaser1]

The way it's looking, it'll be an Invest by tomorrow, and a T.D. by Tuesday. Its too early to begin to guess where it may track but here's two things to pay attention too. How far south does a COC attempt to organize, and how fast is it's forward speed.

Watching many October MDR tropical cyclones is often like watching sedimentary rock age. They can often move westward soooo slowly. If the deep layer Easterlies remain strong and this develops down near 8N, the Islands need to keep a sharp eye out.

[StormWeather]

This thing is very far south (for the Atlantic at least), like Isidore-far south.

Is it possible for this to develop below 10N?

[LarryWx]

This thing is very far south (for the Atlantic at least), like Isidore-far south.

Is it possible for this to develop below 10N?

Due to a weaker Coriolis force that close to the equator, it’s difficult. But it happens on occasion as there have been 5 on record to form 8-9N in Oct. Of those 5, 2 hit the Windwards and 1 dissipated just before.

[cycloneye]

TAFB circled low at 6N-24W on 18z surface map.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS very bullish early.

[cycloneye]

Too close for comfort.

[LarryWx]

And at the opposite extreme, the 18Z Euro has no TC although once again decent 500/700/850 vorticity is there.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of next week while moving across the central
tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Agree with this.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1974623282507759697

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Veeringwindswx/status/1974307043009048819

[cycloneye]

Posting again a loop as it continues to look better as time goes by.

[abajan]

The way it's looking, it'll be an Invest by tomorrow, and a T.D. by Tuesday. Its too early to begin to guess where it may track but here's two things to pay attention too. How far south does a COC attempt to organize, and how fast is it's forward speed.

Watching many October MDR tropical cyclones is often like watching sedimentary rock age. They can often move westward soooo slowly. If the deep layer Easterlies remain strong and this develops down near 8N, the Islands need to keep a sharp eye out.

No one knows where the Great Hurricane of 1780 originated but it could well have achieved cyclogenesis in the same area as this AOI, at the same time of year.

[cycloneye]

Breaking= ASCAT shows a good circulation.

[AJC3]

Breaking= ASCAT shows a good circulation.

METOP-B/C composite...

[zzzh]

Closed circulation

[Kazmit]

0z ICON runs right through the Leewards as a major hurricane.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/XBOt8Cn.png
Closed circulation

Short-term organization like this should bode well for it down the line when it comes to development prospects.

[cycloneye]

ICON much more west and stronger. 940 mbs north of PR.

[eastcoastFL]

ICON much more west and stronger. 940 mbs north of PR.

https://i.imgur.com/JMsYLt9.gif

Does it start to look like it might curve towards the open ocean?