Recon to check 94L this afternoon TWO 11:30

[Brent]

The tides don't affect tropical development, but they do cause astronomical tides so if a storm is making landfall during it, the water level is higher than normal.

[PTrackerLA]

Sounds like Lake Charles NWS is expecting our GOM system to get named!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
A dome of HIGH pressure will be found over the Ohio Valley ridging
southwest across Louisiana. An inverted trough (or wave-in-the-
easterlies) continues to propagate west along the southern periphery
of the HIGH. The inverted trough will enter the coastal waters
tonight; and exit the coastal waters Friday evening.

Note, at press the National Hurricane Center is contemplating naming
this inverted trough; contingent upon the findings of the aircraft.

However they only show about 1" of rain for us from this system.

[Thunder44]

So where are the recon obs? They should be there already.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd say one thing, the visible satellite representation has been improving throughout the day. If recon finds enough wind in the squalls north of the center we could be looking at a TD or TS by 5pm.

[ROCK]

So where are the recon obs? They should be there already.

Im efforting as I type....it should not take them this long...

[Brent]

So where are the recon obs? They should be there already.

I don't know, but I'm not happy.

[Shoshana]

Justa note 'cause it is confusing ... I don't know if ya'll are takin about Allison or Alicia! Both I think.

From NWS Houston

Tropical Storm Allison, the first named storm of the 2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season, devastated portions of Southeast Texas, including the Houston Metro area and surrounding communities, with severe flooding.

...

Nearly 37 inches of rain was recorded at the Port of Houston during Allison's five day rampage!

...

Allison was even more deadly than Hurricane Alicia (22 lives lost with Allison, 21 with Alicia).

From USA Today via NWS

Alicia, in August 1983, was the first hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Allen hit South Texas on Aug. 9, 1980.

After forming just south of Louisiana on the Aug. 15, 1983, Alicia drifted westward and intensified quickly into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on the west end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of Aug. 18.

'shana

[opera ghost]

Shoshana- we've been chatting about both Most Houstonians remember Allison (so recent) but some remember Alicia.

[golter]

I'd say one thing, the visible satellite representation has been improving throughout the day. If recon finds enough wind in the squalls north of the center we could be looking at a TD or TS by 5pm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I would not call that "improving throughout the day". It might get a number but it wont get a name.

[Shoshana]

opera ghost ... I kinda thought that... but even to me, who knows there were two storms with similar names it was starting to get confusing and I thought I'd just pop some info in for those not in the area who might not have caught the Alicia/Allison thing.

I was in Dallas for Alicia, Austin for Allison.

Unfortunately we have a trip planned to Houston for tomorrow - Thursday, to the Ship Channel that we can't put off. Hopefully the Ivan Poop will hold off till Friday...

'shana

edited cause I type too slow and can't spell!

[Houstonia]

Meterology Mom thinks that the A storms have the highest potential for hitting SE Texas (Alicia, Allison, Allen). I don't know exactly what the score is on this though. Are we more vulnerable to early season storms?

[vbhoutex]

94L will have to continue West and get out from under the shear that is keeping the convection away from the LLCC. Once it does that a quick pop to TS status would not be a surprise at all.

[GalvestonDuck]

Audrey, Debra, Cindy, Felice, Delia, Claudette, Elena, Danielle, Alicia, Bonnie, Chantal, Jerry, Dean, Allison

[Houstonia]

Audrey, Debra, Cindy, Felice, Delia, Claudette, Elena, Danielle, Alicia, Bonnie, Chantal, Jerry, Dean, Allison

Hmm... they kind of seem in the early range of storms, don't they? I'm assuming these are Texas storms? The latest we've gotten is Jerry then -and that's kind of a stretch (between F and J). Most of the storms are in the ABCD area.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, all TX storms - Galveston, to be exact, if my source was correct.

[Portastorm]

LOL!

We Texans/Western GOMers must be pretty starved for tropical weather action if we can merit 4 pages on a thread about an "invest."

[opera ghost]

Not so much starved *Laughs* as interested. We have a large number of Texans who havn't been able to talk aobut anything that might affect us... I'm interested in this little invest.

I mean I feel for the people in the path of the trio out there in the Atlantic... but this might actully come over my house. Interesting in a purely personal way.

[vbhoutex]

Tides are higher than normal, I believe, due to the autumnal equinox. Anyone know if this is actually the case?

We have a coastal flood watch in effect since yesterday due to the East fetch of the winds all the way from FL. Tides are running around 2' above MSL on average I believe.(from my earlier post and an earlier Hou/Gal discussion)

[Houstonia]

Anyone have a link to recon reports?

thanks...

[Yankeegirl]

Well, I have noticed that the winds here have been a little gusty all day... The local met on Fox kept calling it a depression this morning on the news... Go figure... We do need the rain... The local met on Channel 2 said we have a 50/50 shot of it turning into something... My daughters 1st birthday party is on Sunday... I really dont want muddy shoes walking on my freshly cleaned carpets!!

I dont remember Alicia, cause i wasnt here then, but I do remember Allison... We lived in Sugarland, didnt see much rain at all...