5:30 TWO=Broad Low Pressure Forms in NW Caribbean

hurricanefloyd5 · #61 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:56 pm

Will t.s.Alerne form next week??????????????????

rainstorm · #62 Postby **rainstorm** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:59 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote::(

ColdFront77 · #63 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:52 pm

#64 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:55 pm

Posting a shear tendency map without any explanation at all as to what it is about or for does no one any good Tom. You and I may understand it, but there are many who view this site that may not. Please provide an explanation of what the map is about and what it indicates, at least in your perspective.

ColdFront77 · #65 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:24 pm

I explained in the 11:30 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook thread (where I actually had it, along with this thread for about five seconds) that the shear was decreasing some. I didn't think it was appropriate to post the latest image of this map in a thread with the 'older' thread title.

The legend for the shear tendency is self-explanatory.... the solid (white) lines indicate where upper level wind shear is increasting and the dotted (light blue) lines indicate where it's decreasing.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #66 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:48 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In this graphic, the streamlines orientation coupled with the pocket of 20kt of shear over the region in question makes it appear to be no so favorable in my mind. I would like to see a bit more cyclonic curvature to the aforementioned streamlines with much weaker shear before I'd start honking the development horn. Also, I'd like to see convection much closer to the low. Also, it appears to be a wee-bit too much dry ary being entrained into the low. I'm just not very confident this will do much of anything, which is why I suspect there hasn't been an invest issued for this particular low just yet.

-Mike

ColdFront77 · #67 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:51 pm

I'm not implying that development is possible. I, like anyone else could have posted this shear tendency map to show the decreasing shear above the cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #68 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:08 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:I'm not implying that development is possible. I, like anyone else could have posted this shear tendency map to show the decreasing shear above the cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms.

I didn't imply that you implied that development was possible. I, like anyone else, posted another shear tendency map to further the argument against development. Also, it should be noted, that the shear tendency over the convection is very minute -- less than 5 knots. Not much when you already have 20 knots in the area.

#69 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:09 pm

Mike - great analysis!

#70 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:47 pm

Here's a 3Z NW Caribbean analysis map. There ARE some 25-30 kt winds, but straight from the southeast right through the system. Definitely no LLC at all.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb2.gif">

ColdFront77 · #71 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 11:31 pm

senorpepr wrote:I didn't imply that you implied that development was possible. I, like anyone else, posted another shear tendency map to further the argument against development. Also, it should be noted, that the shear tendency over the convection is very minute -- less than 5 knots. Not much when you already have 20 knots in the area.

Thanks Mike. There may be a chance others do.

mobilebay · #72 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:24 am

rainstorm wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote::(

What in the world is this? That is the most disgusting thing I've ever seen! :roll:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #73 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:38 am

Whats disgusting about it? :roll:

mobilebay · #74 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:42 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Whats disgusting about it?

The vomiting, and the ear licking. 8-)

#75 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:31 am

cyclonaut · #76 Postby **cyclonaut** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:39 am

mobilebay wrote:
rainstorm wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote::(

What in the world is this? That is the most disgusting thing I've ever seen!

If thats the most disgusting thing you've ever seen, you live a extremely sheltered life. :wink:

canegrl04 · #77 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:47 am

I've seen posts on Yahoo discussion that are far more disgusting than that :roll:

GalvestonDuck · #78 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:13 am

Let's not hijack a weather thread with an emoticon discussion, okay?

#79 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:04 am

Galvestonduck - GREAT IDEA!!!!!!!!!!!

#80 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:31 am

Here's a 12Z sfc analysis and visible (sort of) satellite picture. My VNC connection allows only 256 colors so the visible shot isn't too good. You can clearly see not even a hint of an LLC. Disturbance appears less organized today. The feature we saw yesterday near 20N/85W appears to be near 23N/84W today.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb3.gif">

5:30 TWO=Broad Low Pressure Forms in NW Caribbean

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