Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

[Hyperstorm]

My response to what Stormernie wrote in another thread......

I very much see what he's talking about, but I would rather see some persistence before I say that it will develop. The area he mentioned is also the area that caught my attention earlier this evening as it appears to have a band just to its SE, which is persistent and indicative of a MLC developing.

We'll have to see what happens during the next 12-24 hours as this is not the tropical wave itself, but rather some ITCZ related convection next to the HUGE low-level cloud swirl that is located to its NW.

Persistance of convection is key to watch there.

What do you think of wave emerging Africa? Will wave in front help it moist it more?

Definitely Cycloneye. If the wave behind it doesn't develop, it will not be because of lack of moisture or cool SSTs (located far enough south). It will likely be because of a lack of good forcing in the system (lack of low pressure center). It is NOT a vigorous wave moving offshore, but being that conditions are favorable, low pressure development is not out of the question during the weekend...

[cycloneye]

Big wave in front of wave emerging West Africa.What will happen with these 2 waves we will see in next few days.

[EDR1222]

Regardless of what happens with these systems, these images are sure impressive for this time of year. There has been action for all of July for the most part. I am still amazed by the consistency so far.

[Hurricaneman]

We have Franklin and possibily two other features to watch

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow that system off Africa is very impressive. It already has curving to it with banding. Its at the perfect lat around 10 to 12 north not to deal with cool water. It looks good. The system ahead of it looks impressive to. That needs to be watched.

Can we get 3 named storms with in the next week. We will find out!!!

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldnt be suprised

[EDR1222]

What do you guys think the chances are for these waves to make it all the way across?

Comments and thoughts welcome

[wxwatcher91]

well we have Franklin right now, Gert this afternoon in the Gulf, and it looks like Harvey and Irene may join the party...

wow

[Duffy]

EDR,
i am not an expert, but just from the little experience i have, i would say it depends on how Strong the Ridge will be for one...for two, how strong these Systems get and how quickly and the lattitude they are when they start devoloping
From what i've read, Generally speaking, the farther North Lattitude a storm is or the quicker it gets devoloped, the more likely the chance they will be a Fish
so we'll have to see what happens i suppose

[cycloneye]

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N43W 1012
MB. WAVE REMAINS LARGE IN AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
DUST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALONG
AND W OF THE WAVE...KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ALONG
AND W OF WAVE. E OF THE WAVE...SLY SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
35W-39W.

A weak low formed around 11n.Let's keep watching it.

[Petmom]

well we have Franklin right now, Gert this afternoon in the Gulf, and it looks like Harvey and Irene may join the party...

wow

It is hard to believe we have such a busy season. I thought last year was pretty bad............we are still in July...........

[WeatherEmperor]

Augst will begin in just 9 days so we are quickly reaching the ramp-up portion of the hurricane season. I hope you guys are all strapped in and ready to go cause once August does roll around its gonna wave after wave causing some interesting developments.

<RICKY>

[Duffy]

you don't think the Season will end in a Lull? there's a saying a Season that starts off active ends in a Lull or as was the case last year, the other way around

[fci]

Augst will begin in just 9 days so we are quickly reaching the ramp-up portion of the hurricane season. I hope you guys are all strapped in and ready to go cause once August does roll around its gonna wave after wave causing some interesting developments.

<RICKY>

Isn't that how July has been?
Can't see August being that much MORE active.
Pedal to the metal is pedal to the metal and we have had full acceleration for the past few weeks!

[WeatherEmperor]

you don't think the Season will end in a Lull? there's a saying a Season that starts off active ends in a Lull or as was the case last year, the other way around

Well 1995 didnt agree with that. And this year has defied climatology in so many different ways. All Im saying is strap in and be prepared for the unexpected. its gooooin be wild! lol

<RICKY>

[Duffy]

hehe yep we shall!
My fearless Prediction is a Cat 5 165 Monster making landfall somewhere in the US!!!!!!
With everything that's happened so far this year, you can't bet against a scenario like that lol

[cycloneye]

AT THIS TIME PUERTO RICO LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MILKY AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST THAT STRETCHES FROM BEHIND THE WAVE THAT JUST PASSED...
TO EAST OF THE NEXT WAVE TO COME ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE DRY
AIR IS INHIBITING THE CONVECTION ON THE SECOND WAVE...BUT MORE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE AREA WHEN IT ARRIVES...HAVING BEEN
PULLED UP FROM A FAIRLY ACTIVE ITCZ. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST MOISTURE UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE PUSHED THE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THIS WAVE HAS
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW NEAR 11 NORTH 43 WEST...BUT ONLY A LIMITED
POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING OUR WATERS.

DRYING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WAVE WHICH HAS MOVED OFF OF AFRICA ALREADY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THIRD WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MOST OF IT IS BEING FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THE WAVE FOLLOWING THAT AND ARRIVING HERE IN THE FIRST
PART OF AUGUST HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM.


The above a portion from discussion at NWS San Juan.From those words there it looks like august will start like a lion for the NE caribbean.

[Hyperstorm]

I just looked at the latest satellite images and it appears that the tropical wave that moved offshore yesterday is starting to get itself noticed.

There appears to be some forcing going on near 10 N 19 W. If the thunderstorm updrafts continue near that area, low pressure development is possible during the next 24 hours.

I'll be watching because if it does, there is potential for development...

[cycloneye]

I just looked at the latest satellite images and it appears that the tropical wave that moved offshore yesterday is starting to get itself noticed.

There appears to be some forcing going on near 10 N 19 W. If the thunderstorm updrafts continue near that area, low pressure development is possible during the next 24 hours.

I'll be watching because if it does, there is potential for development...

Interesting that observation so let's continue to watch not only that wave but the big one in front and wave that will emerge in a couple of days as those 2 behind the big dry one will have less Sal Layer air to work with.

[caribepr]

I'm thinking...mix Sahara dust with Montserrat ash (both brushed off every surface we have) and make some sort of brilliant product to sell.
For you who don't know, the beautiful orange Sahara dust, it will eat your car paint.
But how cool, that dust from the SAHARA DESERT!!! is on your car! The first time I saw it on my windowsill on St. Croix I left it there for a week, just amazed that such a thing could land on MY windowsill, so very far away!