11:30 AM TWO for 90L and caribbean,Recon going to 90L

#61 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 12:16 pm

>>convection is firing right near the center

Indeed. I never worry about those east side shear/diffluence induced convection msyelf that so many seem to gauge stregth or weakeness of a system by. But I'm curious to know how close to the surface that spin is. It looks fairly tight fwiw.

Steve

Rainband · #62 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 12:18 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:The latest visible shot shows a clear circulation. Best shot I've seen so far of it at least.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

wow

#63 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 12:19 pm

gboudx wrote:Wonder if the shuttle launch for Tuesday will be delayed.....again?

Hubby and I already have hotel reservations for Mon. night and we're both off work, so hush! lol

kevin · #64 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:21 pm

I love your camel avatar. Camels are totally sweet.

#65 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:24 pm

Thanks

I liked him because he's animated, very cool, and no one else had him :wink:

gkrangers · #66 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:26 pm

WTNT02 KNGU 211200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 211130Z JUL 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
050 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N6 73.0W0 TO 28.0N0 77.0W4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 210600Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.0N6 73.0W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221200Z7.//

themusk · #67 Postby **themusk** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:36 pm

The last few frames, starting 5:15:45 UTC, look to me like our blob has turned itself into a full-fledged TS. Of course, the winds may be lagging the appearance. But I would not be surprised if 90L went straight to TS, without first being identified as a TD.

HurriCat · #68 Postby **HurriCat** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:58 pm

kevin wrote:I love your camel avatar. Camels are totally sweet.

My boss did 9 mos w. USMC in Iraq. HIS opinion of camels is very colorful. The ones they saw were aggressive, prone to spitting and biting. Here, Cammie, c'mere, boy (splat!) Arg! My face! (chomp!) Agh! My ear! (kick!) Arg! My scr... (thud.) :oops:

Hey, mostly just venting nervousness, watching the big show.

With all the talk of "Verbotten Threadenzies", what I get sick of are the:

:eek:

Wow /

A-may-zin Season! / :eek:

kinds, where like fifteen posts in a row are all "Waki-nu-nu" over a picture or text-block of weather-gerial incantations! :eek:

#69 Postby **EDR1222** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:02 pm

Some interesting comments from NWS Melbourne AFD for Thursday afternoon.

GFS AND ETA CONTINUE TO PULL THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND ALLOW A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CONUS TO PICK IT UP...KEEPING IT EAST
OF FL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA SUN-MON NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS COULD CAUSE IT TO STALL...OR
MAKE A LOOP...OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND GET STEERED WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINUSLA IN 3-5 DAYS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HINGES ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE
MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING

jpigott · #70 Postby **jpigott** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:04 pm

its like de javu all over - can anyone say Jeanne

11:30 AM TWO for 90L and caribbean,Recon going to 90L

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