Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[Eyes2theSkies]

now things get interesting

[hurricanefloyd5]

florida under the gun with franklin??????????????????

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 240255
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF
FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO.
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG
SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT
LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE
SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT

[wxmann_91]

IMO Frankie could be the next Ginger (1971), which was the longest lasting storm ever in the Atlantic, forming just east of the Bahamas, looking like it's a fish, then looping back and striking the Carolinas.

If you look at the latest models, they are taking Franklin to the east, but then looping it southeast.

No break for the next month it seems.

[Hurricaneman]

I doubt this will pull a ginger

[mike18xx]

It almost looks as if the LCC is moving due north the last few hours. (Such movement takes it directly toward the front above it, rather than east along it, and hence that vector must change shortly.)

[Pebbles]

When I first saw this thread I thought it said "Why Franklin may be loopy after all" (meaning franklin the forecaster LOL)

[DAVE440]

Does look like Frankie has a split personality thing goin on here.

Appears to be splititng into 2 seperate areas of convection with one
moving to the ne and the other to the s or sw. High pressure dropping
in from the north appears to be affecting it.

What happens if Franklin does split then part moves to the NE and part turns into a storm and moves towards FL? Does it get a new name?

Also....look south... say around.... 70/10... area of showers looking
like a wave possibly moving to the wnw...?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
[/url]

[Nimbus]

I'm sure forecaster Franklin was quite pleased to see Storm Franklin going puff puff puff as it moved steadily EENE this morning.
Now we can concentrate on Gert.

[wxwatcher91]

I hope it does a loop and then strengthens to a least a minimal hurricane because if it doesnt, Franklin will be the third hurricane this season to peak at 70mph -just under hurricane threshold

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope it doe's 10 loops over the Atlantic. With at the same time bombing into a cat4 3 times.

Yes wishful thinking

[wxwatcher91]

I hope it doe's 10 loops over the Atlantic. With at the same time bombing into a cat4 3 times.

Yes wishful thinking

well the bamd still has him doing a loop...

[Stunner]

What happens if Franklin does split then part moves to the NE and part turns into a storm and moves towards FL? Does it get a new name?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
[/url]

No. Remember Ivan?

[wxwatcher91]

What happens if Franklin does split then part moves to the NE and part turns into a storm and moves towards FL? Does it get a new name?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
[/url]

No. Remember Ivan?

ya but Ivan never split... it just became extra-tropical...

[wxwatcher91]

[mike18xx]

Does look like Frankie has a split personality thing goin on here. Appears to be splititng into 2 seperate areas of convection with one
moving to the ne and the other to the s or sw.

It's not "splitting"; it's a typical case of a sheared TS off the Bahamas -- a low-level swirl is left while all the other layered convection dies away once removed from the swirl. (The LCC swirl is normally very persistant, however, and will eventually generate new convection.)

[Sanibel]

The ridge plunging above took the convection west. The LLC was on the east side of the divide and went east.

If the center was over where the convection is going west the storm probably would have looped back west too...

[Zadok]

It's not "splitting"; it's a typical case of a sheared TS off the Bahamas -- a low-level swirl is left while all the other layered convection dies away once removed from the swirl. (The LCC swirl is normally very persistant, however, and will eventually generate new convection.)

does this mean that the swirl that is now south toward the bahamas could generate new convection? If it did where would it go?

[Steve Cosby]

Surprisingly, some of the models predicted this decoupling for some time.

Kinda hard to imagine that the models would really be able to forsee such a thing occuring.

[wxwatcher91]

so it IS possible that the MLC could develop into it's own storm... anybody think this could be TD 8 in the making??