Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

Kennethb · #61 Postby **Kennethb** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:33 pm

Proximity of 92 and 93 probably not allowing for either to reach potential. Both look like formiable waves, but too close. Besides 93 is headed for the traditional no development zone.

May have to wait until they can reach the west Carribean.

Ixolib · #62 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:37 pm

Swimdude wrote:Less organized than this afternoon, for sure.

Lull is boring me...

Well, then, you outta go to this thread!! :lol:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69456

Anonymous · #63 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:51 pm

Kennethb wrote:Proximity of 92 and 93 probably not allowing for either to reach potential. Both look like formiable waves, but too close. Besides 93 is headed for the traditional no development zone.

May have to wait until they can reach the west Carribean.

Chantal...Emily...Ivan...Charley.....I am beginning to think that the Eastern Caribbean may not be as bad as we thought.

wxmann_91 · #64 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:57 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
Kennethb wrote:Proximity of 92 and 93 probably not allowing for either to reach potential. Both look like formiable waves, but too close. Besides 93 is headed for the traditional no development zone.

May have to wait until they can reach the west Carribean.

Chantal...Emily...Ivan...Charley.....I am beginning to think that the Eastern Caribbean may not be as bad as we thought.

Don't forget about Dennis. Seems like every storm that forms in the eastern Caribbean affects Cuba and Jamaica and then the Florida panhandle or the west coast of the peninsula. (e.g. Charley and Dennis)

Astro_man92 · #65 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:04 pm

come check out my dumb tread i'm still working on it
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69461 lol

#66 Postby **fci** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:06 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:
Kennethb wrote:Proximity of 92 and 93 probably not allowing for either to reach potential. Both look like formiable waves, but too close. Besides 93 is headed for the traditional no development zone.

May have to wait until they can reach the west Carribean.

Chantal...Emily...Ivan...Charley.....I am beginning to think that the Eastern Caribbean may not be as bad as we thought.

Don't forget about Dennis. Seems like every storm that forms in the eastern Caribbean affects Cuba and Jamaica and then the Florida panhandle or the west coast of the peninsula. (e.g. Charley and Dennis)

Living in SE Florida, generally speaking; when a system develops in the SE Carib; we are off the hook. Not as lucky west of here in the GOM, but selfishly; we can breath easier here once a system gets past the islands (rare exceptions do exist however; David....)

Swimdude · #67 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:17 pm

93L might be heading for hurricane graveyard... But look at Emily!

#68 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:19 pm

Swimdude wrote:93L might be heading for hurricane graveyard... But look at Emily!

Also Charley.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #69 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:19 pm

Dennis

#70 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 4:43 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310905
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 MPH THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Nimbus · #71 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:47 am

Living in SE Florida, generally speaking; when a system develops in the SE Carib; we are off the hook. Not as lucky west of here in the GOM, but selfishly; we can breath easier here once a system gets past the islands (rare exceptions do exist however; David....)

One thing that caught my eye about 93L was that the convection bursts are moving west much slower than the express train systems we have been seeing this year.

The Caribbean upper air pattern is kind of a mess so I am expecting 93L to reach the western edge of the marginally favorable high pressure area she is developing in and that may contribute to a gain in latitude.

My initial impression is that this storm might track up the east coast of Florida if there is not a strong ridge in place over the Bahamas.

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:06 am

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS WEAKENED IS
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

The above is from the 8:05 discussion from TPC which tells us that there is anything with this wave that opens eyebrows.Shear is plenty in the caribbean at this time and that is a big hurdle 93L has to pass thru.

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:34 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050731 1200 050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 57.8W 12.4N 60.7W 13.0N 63.6W 13.8N 66.4W
BAMM 12.0N 57.8W 12.6N 60.6W 13.3N 63.3W 14.2N 65.8W
A98E 12.0N 57.8W 12.7N 60.5W 13.4N 63.2W 14.2N 65.8W
LBAR 12.0N 57.8W 12.7N 60.9W 13.4N 64.0W 14.2N 67.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050802 1200 050803 1200 050804 1200 050805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 69.1W 15.5N 74.6W 16.2N 79.8W 16.9N 84.7W
BAMM 14.9N 68.3W 15.7N 73.2W 15.9N 78.5W 16.0N 84.2W
A98E 14.8N 68.3W 16.4N 72.7W 17.7N 76.6W 19.1N 80.5W
LBAR 14.8N 70.3W 15.9N 76.4W 16.5N 81.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 69KTS 75KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 69KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 54.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

After no model runs last night the 12:00z comes out.Interesting that ship has it as a hurricane in 120 hours despite shear in the caribbean.

WindRunner · #74 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:47 am

It's kinda interesting watching so many people get worried over a ball of storms so far away. I know they've gotten pounded, and we've never had to deal with much in northern VA (Isabel has been the worst in the past decade - 50mph i think at the time), but i guess i just can't understand what it's like to be in the path of the big one.

Thunder44 · #75 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:49 am

The inital model plots the center right in the middle of the southern ball of convection. If that's the case, then TPC would it was more organized then earlier.

Thunder44 · #76 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:52 am

This morning's QS:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

#77 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:55 am

Here is the graphic of the 12:00z run.

#78 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:29 am

479
TCCA21 KNHC 311306
STDECA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 31 2005

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...E CARIBBEAN WAVE

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
31/1215 UTC 13.8N 59.2W 280/13 6.0 IN 8.9 IN

clfenwi · #79 Postby **clfenwi** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050731 1200 050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 57.8W 12.4N 60.7W 13.0N 63.6W 13.8N 66.4W
BAMM 12.0N 57.8W 12.6N 60.6W 13.3N 63.3W 14.2N 65.8W
A98E 12.0N 57.8W 12.7N 60.5W 13.4N 63.2W 14.2N 65.8W
LBAR 12.0N 57.8W 12.7N 60.9W 13.4N 64.0W 14.2N 67.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050802 1200 050803 1200 050804 1200 050805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 69.1W 15.5N 74.6W 16.2N 79.8W 16.9N 84.7W
BAMM 14.9N 68.3W 15.7N 73.2W 15.9N 78.5W 16.0N 84.2W
A98E 14.8N 68.3W 16.4N 72.7W 17.7N 76.6W 19.1N 80.5W
LBAR 14.8N 70.3W 15.9N 76.4W 16.5N 81.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 69KTS 75KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 69KTS 75KTS

(snip)

After no model runs last night the 12:00z comes out.Interesting that ship has it as a hurricane in 120 hours despite shear in the caribbean.

Situation has improved significantly in the area west of 70° ...
compare 12Z today

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

with 24 hours ago

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-8.html

guess who hasn't had any caffeine yet this morning...

#80 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 9:51 am

That's the same image.

Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

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