TD 10...Back Again

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NastyCat4

#61 Postby NastyCat4 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:20 pm

The T-storms over the Yucatan look far better than the remnant of TD 10 at this point.
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#62 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:21 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:The T-storms over the Yucatan look far better than the remnant of TD 10 at this point.


yeah. too much shear in that location though. not that the remnants of TD10 doesnt have any.

<RICKY>
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#63 Postby jrod » Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:20 pm

That low level swirl keeps on persisting and this morning I thought it may even be a TD again. As long as that swirl lingers the system has a decent shot of regenerating, all it needs are more favorable conditions.
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NastyCat4

#64 Postby NastyCat4 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:25 pm

I'd bet on the Yucatan mess first--that looks MUCH stronger, and has had many convective flare-ups.
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#65 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:35 pm

Swirl is SE of the little convection flare...
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#66 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:19 pm

I guess they stopped running models on 10L?
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#67 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:24 pm

sma10 wrote:I guess they stopped running models on 10L?


It may still be too early (it's only 83 minutes past 00Z initialization time), but the latest from ATCF is 18Z...
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#68 Postby jrod » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:43 pm

I just checked the satellite and it looks like a depression.
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gfdl

#69 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:45 pm

GFDL 2300Z

Image
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:51 pm

jrod wrote:I just checked the satellite and it looks like a depression.


Image

Does this look like a depression to you? Maybe in a few days, but right now it's nothing more than a swirl and a few patches of convection. That's not enough to be qualified as a depression.
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#71 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:53 pm

looks like S. Florida could be a potential target if this thing gets going
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#72 Postby jrod » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:56 pm

The shortwave IR loop shows it well and quikscat shows a closed low. It is close to a depression at least IMO. If it maintains or stregthens in the next day then I think it will advisories will be issued again. Ive seen worse called depressions.
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Last edited by jrod on Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby boca » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:56 pm

Hurakan that's a real nice sat anyway you can definetely see all the details.
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#74 Postby jrod » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:58 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html

The link to the shortwave IR if anyone is interested and doesnt have the link already.
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#75 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:00 pm

jrod wrote:The shortwave IR loop shows it well and quikscat shows a closed low. It is close to a depression at least IMO. If it maintains or stregthens in the next day then I think it will advisories will be issued again. Ive seen worse called depressions.
Image


No one is arguing that there isn't a closed low, but you need a lot more than a closed low to be a depression. There isn't near enough convection around the low for NHC to upgrade this. The last thing they want to do is upgrade it and then have to downgrade it a 2nd time. You can be assured that they will be very cautious with upgrading this system.
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#76 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:02 pm

sma10 wrote:
jrod wrote:The shortwave IR loop shows it well and quikscat shows a closed low. It is close to a depression at least IMO. If it maintains or stregthens in the next day then I think it will advisories will be issued again. Ive seen worse called depressions.
Image


No one is arguing that there isn't a closed low, but you need a lot more than a closed low to be a depression. There isn't near enough convection around the low for NHC to upgrade this. The last thing they want to do is upgrade it and then have to downgrade it a 2nd time. You can be assured that they will be very cautious with upgrading this system.

I agree, NHC will very cautious in re-upgrading. Its better organized than it was 24 hours ago, but its still got a ways to go.

I think it will be at least a couple of days, if not longer, before we see this go back to depression, if at all.
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#77 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:07 pm

jrod wrote:The shortwave IR loop shows it well and quikscat shows a closed low. It is close to a depression at least IMO. If it maintains or stregthens in the next day then I think it will advisories will be issued again. Ive seen worse called depressions.
Image


Yeah I think Irene was looking pretty pitifull.
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#78 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:09 pm

jrod wrote:The shortwave IR loop shows it well and quikscat shows a closed low. It is close to a depression at least IMO. If it maintains or stregthens in the next day then I think it will advisories will be issued again. Ive seen worse called depressions.
Image


By the way, this quickscat imager IS nearly 24 hours old. Check the time out at the bottom.
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here you go then

#79 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:11 pm

here you go then


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i guess

#80 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:12 pm

i guess that is old
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