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I think we've had enough deadly canes for this year...fish gods take this one away.
GFDL predicts invest21l to be 163 mph in 120h an pressure 91
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frankthetank
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truballer#1
Steering currents pushed the invest92l somewhat south of due west, bringing the low so close to the equator that the low was unable to use the Earth's spin to help it maintain its own spin. A tropical system cannot maintain the spin needed to develop if it ventures too close to the equator, since a portion of the Earth's spin is required. There has never been a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic spin up south of 8N.
Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.
Right now since its weak the gfdl won't say it being strong, but
I think if it does go back a little north and organize a lot better I wouldnt be surprised to see the gfdl forcasting it again a strong hurricane.
Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.
Right now since its weak the gfdl won't say it being strong, but
I think if it does go back a little north and organize a lot better I wouldnt be surprised to see the gfdl forcasting it again a strong hurricane.
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truballer#1
truballer#1 wrote:looks like invest 92l is moved up north and should develope as antisipated. Slower than expected since it is below 10N. I still think it could be a major hurricane sometime. I f it does develope well gfdl mostly likly make it a cat 3 again or higher
And you are basing this forecast on?????
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no advance
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wxmann_91
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no advance wrote:I think the mjo is in the altlantic What do you all think?
The MJO is not in its wet phase right now and frankly I now think that we were all too concerned about it. But heck during the last wet phase we saw Katrina.
92L is crap. Thankfully, or else it could've posed a threat to the islands or the US.
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