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#61 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:10 am

I think you need to go more north with your arror. Good picture though
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cycloneye
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:12 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Nothing very impressive well east of the islands this morning - it looks more like something you'd see late in the season, with a quasi-stationary area of sheared convection about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands, though a weak circulation is seen in the same area south of 10N.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank


Actually, Im quite impressed. the convection is the orange/red that you look for, rather than the yellows that we have seen. Also look...
Image


Where you made those circular lines is not where the position of the models is as they are at 9.8n-42.7w NW of that circule.
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#63 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:13 am

Apparently it's not significant enough for the NHC to mention at this time, probably due to the strong shear in the area (as mentioned in the TWD), though we'll see if they mention it in the 11:30 TWO.

Frank

P.S. If I lived in Ohio, perhaps I'd be looking at it differently, too...
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#64 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:16 am

Re: cycloneye's post

Yes, per the TWD, most of the convection is sheared well to the east, so Floydbuster's map needs to be re-analyzed.

Frank
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#65 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:19 am

Frank 2 I think Floyds got something there. Arrow more north.
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#66 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:19 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
Actually, Im quite impressed. the convection is the orange/red that you look for, rather than the yellows that we have seen. Also look...
Image


At least according to the model initializations, the center is not where you put it, but rather up where you have the leading band.
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#67 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:31 am

NEW IMAGE OUT:::
Image

MY THINKING:::
Image
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#68 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:07 am

Look at this. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg Organizing.
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#69 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:20 am

Im going out on a limb and Im going to say this is a Carribean storm....Well below PR at time of Developmemt...I don't buy ant NW motion in the 5 day...
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#70 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:24 am

Where is that Saharan dust when you need it?
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#71 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:54 am

This area won't develop. An abnormally strong upper trough will shear it if it moves northwestward. To keep going in a weak shear environment, it would have to go WSW, and even then it would either slam into S. America or go into a strong shear environment in the Caribbean. Looks like a TD 10 situation here.

Chances are slim, I'd say, thatit would reach TS strength (even if it did reach TD strength).
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#72 Postby gtalum » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:59 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Looks like a TD 10 situation here.


Didn't TD10 ultimately become TD12 and then Katrina?
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#73 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:05 am

Yes TD 10 did become Td 12 which ultimately became Katrina.
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#74 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:20 am

11:30am TWO!!!

A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
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#75 Postby bartman » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:28 am

Check this out. NWS in Wilmington got their wires wet. If you look closely, the current conditions indicate snow in the middle of Ophelia. Could this qualify as a blizzard? Winds - yes! temperature - no!

Image
Last edited by bartman on Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#76 Postby Florida_TSR » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:37 am

What shear are you talking about?
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#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:15 am

SAT IMAGERY
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Convection looks to be a little more concentrated now around the weak low pressure.
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#78 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:18 am

It looks to be at a pretty low latitude. I think chances for a recurve to the north or getting slighter and slighter.
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#79 Postby EDR1222 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:20 am

It definately is improving. It does look like the low latitude it is maintaining is decreasing the chance of an early recurve.
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#80 Postby Florida_TSR » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:32 am

This one needs to be watched very closely.
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