Concern of Strong Feeder Bands Impacting South Florida

#61 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:28 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the farthest north it could go is Palm Beach County. A direct hit is more likely farther south in Miami-Dade. The NHC is forecasting a TS when reaching S. Florida but I think they are being conservative. Storms in this part of the Atlantic have historically developed faster than anywhere else (e.g. Camille, Katrina, etc). A near major hurricane impacting S. Florida would not be out of the question here.

sfwx · #62 Postby **sfwx** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:39 pm

I was out at friend's place in Western St. Lucie Co. and there were birds all over. They all moved north!

Eric

#63 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:41 pm

I was out at friend's place in Western St. Lucie Co. and there were birds all over. They all moved north!

Eric

EXACTLY. That is because Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach are going to see some very NASTY weather in a few days. The birds sense it before we do and I don't see ANY of them out here Boca Raton.

Lifesgud2 · #64 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:43 pm

Thanks Chris...I think Homestead in in the path. JMO

#65 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:52 pm

models are too far South. I have said South Florida for several days now and I will continue to go with that. Miami-Dade looks to be the target, however, we'll see very nasty weather in Broward and Palm Beach county. The north side of this storm will be worse than Katrina for us.

NastyCat4 · #66 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:55 pm

Given the storm's Westward track, I would guess it is more likely to be South of Florida, with a possible indirect hit on the Keys. I'd bet on a track closer to Cuba, given the ridge's position, and the general W with a slightly Southern component to the storm's movement.......Strait of Fla, on the Southern side, and possibly over Cuba into the Gulf towards Mexico (a la Emily).

#67 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:01 pm

according to the latest Recon reports, the center is developing alittle further North than earlier

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 7&start=80

LSue · #68 Postby **LSue** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:02 pm

Hey Chris (and anyone else who wants to take a stab at this!!)

What are you thinking the possible impact from TD 18/Rita might be for Collier/Naples?

Enjoy reading your thoughts and predictions...

Linda

#69 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:02 pm

Yes, it is and I expect the NHC to shift their track right at 5pm and put the line through FL Keys/Miami-Dade

#70 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:03 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:according to the latest Recon reports, the center is developing alittle further North than earlier

are you serious? forgive me for being a bit slow today but do you have a link so for me that I can see?

<RICKY>

#71 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:04 pm

are you serious? forgive me for being a bit slow today but do you have a link so for me that I can see?

Ricky, look at the latest satellite loop, there is no center where the NHC has put it. It's farther north by at least 50 miles or more.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

#72 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:05 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:according to the latest Recon reports, the center is developing alittle further North than earlier

are you serious? forgive me for being a bit slow today but do you have a link so for me that I can see?

<RICKY>

Just put the link in my post...sorry forgot to do that

#73 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:07 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:according to the latest Recon reports, the center is developing alittle further North than earlier

are you serious? forgive me for being a bit slow today but do you have a link so for me that I can see?

<RICKY>
Just put the link in my post...sorry forgot to do that

Windtalker1, I agree with you and I can see it a bit clearer now. Thanks for helping me out

<RICKY>

#74 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:08 pm

Bryan Norcross on CBS 4 here in Dade just broke in to say that within the hour watches, etc. could be posted for Dade and maybe Broward. He also said that the center appears to be reforming up at 23 degrees north and there's possibility that the track will shift north which would make watches necessary for areas further north. More evacs for Monroe may be ordered later today also, but nothing else beyond the lower (south of the 7-mile bridge) portion yet. They'll have a full update at halftime of the Dolphins game.

#75 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:12 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:according to the latest Recon reports, the center is developing alittle further North than earlier

are you serious? forgive me for being a bit slow today but do you have a link so for me that I can see?

<RICKY>
Just put the link in my post...sorry forgot to do that

Windtalker1, I agree with you and I can see it a bit clearer now. Thanks for helping me out

<RICKY>

Your welcome ! 8-)

#76 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:32 pm

Oh Rita...Rita...Rita...What a system.

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that the inner structure of the system is gradually, but impressively, becoming better organized. The LLC appears to be slowly reforming further north (near 23.4N 72.4W) near the center of the cloudmass, which suggests an expanding outflow pattern. The earlier ULL that had been disrupting its structure is traveling westward away from the system. Once that inner core consolidates, strengthening is likely.

Future Rita will now only be left standing by itself, unbothered, in the center of a very warm and favorable ocean near the Bahamas. This area of the ocean has been known for decades to be able to spawn some of the most rapidly deepening cyclones we've seen in the Atlantic. We could be looking at a rapidly deepening storm over the 90* SSTs if this favorable pattern (as suggested by the models) persists.

PLEASE listen to your local authorities and if you have to evacuate, DO SO. This could be a potentially serious and dangerous situation.

Please continue to monitor this situation CAREFULLY.

Here is a comment from Hyperstorm in another thread, who in my opinion, is very knowledgeable and a solid forecaster.

#77 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:19 pm

it all depends on where the new center forms...if it forms forther north as some are speculating then the FL Keys and S. Florida will be impacted severely.

canegrl04 · #78 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:01 pm

The current forecast for my neck of the woods(North Texas) calls for cooling off and a chance of storms by Saturday.Wonder how this will affect Rita

NastyCat4 · #79 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:36 pm

NHC is going with a center at 22.2. If you look at the visible, and not the infared, it shows that they are correct. Most likely point of impact would be the Keys, since the center of the cone is on the Strait of Florida, thus the 50% probability would be Keys, or further South.

#80 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:07 pm

The 8pm advisory that just came out has the center further north at 22.7N and moving NW9 instead of W10. I wonder how much this will impact the future track now.

<RICKY>

Concern of Strong Feeder Bands Impacting South Florida

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