92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[nequad]

not 1 global model shows that...they all bring it in the gulf and loop it

That is not entirely true. The globals are not really developing this system at all.

Most of the guidance develops another piece of energy over the gulf and maintain 92 as an open wave that later develops as a frontal low off the SE coast. At this time I don't think it's clear at all as to how this system will evolve...other than to say that any organized tropical system approaching the SE coast by day 3 should turn poleward in response to lowering heights over the ERN US and a retreating high pressure ridge off the NE US.

Just my 2 cent.

[no advance]

Looking at Orka seems Christy might have something. Develop TW moving west

[CHRISTY]

why does everybody say by day 3 doesnt anybody think in 2 days this will onshore in florida.

[Downdraft]

not 1 global model shows that...they all bring it in the gulf and loop it

That is not entirely true. The globals are not really developing this system at all.

Most of the guidance develops another piece of energy over the gulf and maintain 92 as an open wave that later develops as a frontal low off the SE coast. At this time I don't think it's clear at all as to how this system will evolve...other than to say that any organized tropical system approaching the SE coast by day 3 should turn poleward in response to lowering heights over the ERN US and a retreating high pressure ridge off the NE US.

I'm wondering the possibility of a hybrid. The models really don't deal with hybrids very well. Besides without an initialized center model data is pretty much meaningless. You can throw out the tropical models above 20N especially this time of year.
Just my 2 cent.

[Air Force Met]

Disagree, Frank..If it was caught between 2 highs, it would be moving, and
quite fast, towards the north..sort of like a seed squeezed between a thumb and forefinger..IMO

That's incorrect. B/W two highs there is a COL The steering flow in the COL is non-existant. So...many times when a storm stalls, it is because it is b/w two highs...especially when the highs are close enough together to allow for some break in the ridge in which the storm gets trapped...but not enough of a break to allow for recurvature around the periphery of the eastern ridge.

Ophelia was an example of this. From an NHC discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/03. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND HAS PERHAPS EVEN STALLED AS THE CYCLONE IS...ONCE AGAIN... CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES.

[WeatherEmperor]

Ive decided to stop using the tropical models from now on out and stick exclusively to the global models. and even moreso at this time of year as we are entering October the tropical models are becoming more and more worthless.

<RICKY>

[CHRISTY]

what direction is 065/03

[Air Force Met]

Ive decided to stop using the tropical models from now on out and stick exclusively to the global models. and even moreso at this time of year as we are entering October the tropical models are becoming more and more worthless.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I wish more people would follow that line of thinking. North of 20 in an atmosphere that is changing (when ridges are eroding or building) they are pretty worthless. People need to really educate themselves on the various models before they get wrapped around the axil when they see the NHC98 sending the storm in their path (or the BAMS steering a Cat 3 towards them...which or course is equally as worthless).

[Air Force Met]

what direction is 065/03

065 degrees is ENE.

[vaffie]

what direction is 065/03

65 degrees is east-northeast

(0 is north, 90 is east, 180 is south, 270 is west)
3 refers to knots--multiply that by 1.15 to get miles per hour.
They were talking about Ophelia, though, not 92L.
Also, do you realize how much you've posted? An average of one post every two hours for the 22 days since you joined! That's amazing!

[WeatherEmperor]

Ive decided to stop using the tropical models from now on out and stick exclusively to the global models. and even moreso at this time of year as we are entering October the tropical models are becoming more and more worthless.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I wish more people would follow that line of thinking. North of 20 in an atmosphere that is changing (when ridges are eroding or building) they are pretty worthless. People need to really educate themselves on the various models before they get wrapped around the axil when they see the NHC98 sending the storm in their path (or the BAMS steering a Cat 3 towards them...which or course is equally as worthless).

Thanks. I appreciate that. Im learning more and more each season.

<RICKY>

[ronjon]

All of the global models bring the system into the GOM in 3-4 days. The ridge over the Atlantic is anomalously strong and forecast to be so for the next 3 days. Since this system will be riding under the Ridge, it should maintain a pretty steady westward motion over the next 72 hours. What happens when it gets into the GOM and how far west it gets are an open question now. The strong cold front that some are saying may sweep this thing up the east coast may not actually be that strong. Remember, this is the first true front to be forecast into the deep south for the Fall season. Usually, the models are a little too agressive with the first fronts as they need to dislodge the Bermuda Ridge which usually takes several episodes of sweeping fronts to do so. Plus the Ridge so far this year has been persistently strong so the current motion into the GOM seems a good bet.

[skysummit]

Yea....they're talking about one POTENT cold front for this time of year. They're saying our lows Friday night in SELA will be in the upper 50's???? Nah....not yet.

[cycloneye]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1500Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST
C. 04/1330Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tomorrow afternoon the first plane will go to 92L.

[Canelaw99]

Good/bad points about the CMC aside - just look at this run (most recent available at this site at time of posting) and imagine the implications of it. Also, imagine the chaos here at S2K

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[skysummit]

Good/bad points about the CMC aside - just look at this run (most recent available at this site at time of posting) and imagine the implications of it. Also, imagine the chaos here at S2K

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Slow connection here today...what does it show?

[Canelaw99]

Across southern FL, out into the Gulf developing into a hurricane. Then, it loops the entire Gulf counter-clockwise back towards the western coast of FL. Can you just imagine the landfall & wobble threads? lol

[caneman]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1500Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST
C. 04/1330Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tomorrow afternoon the first plane will go to 92L.

I think this tells the tale. Based on where they think it will be by tomorrow. This should definitely cross Florida in advance of the front.

[Frank2]

Re: Air Force Met's post

Thanks for explaining the COL issue - that's what I was referring to earlier (without referring to it directly, though I should have).

Frank

[CHRISTY]

that cmc model shows the system moving back to florida.