SW Carribean development

[Ivanhater]

I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.

ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture

Persistance is always key

Especially when any development will be very slow and gradual.

yep, how did you do by the way with wilma, ive been to nassau and its very beautiful

[tampaflwx]

if you bring up the Historical Hurricane Tracks site which NOAA has produced, and search for that late 1925 storm, you will see that it didn't actually hit Tampa Bay. It hit more in the Sarasota region, which still makes all the difference for the Bay area. The database says the storm was an 85kt Category 2 at landfall.



http://s4m.us/uploads/cee22e2239.gif

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N77W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1009 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT
TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.



8 PM Special Feature Discussion.

[krysof]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N77W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1009 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT
TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.



8 PM Special Feature Discussion.

Invest soon?

[Brent]

I keep thinking of Mitch or Michelle... Not that I'm saying this will be that strong, just the location of development is similar, and it's the same time of year.

[Nimbus]

Apparantly the cold front that dug down through Florida behind Wilma won't pick this up since they are forecasting it to move west?

[cycloneye]

The convection is quite disorganized at this time and maybe they are waiting for the system to organize more before having an invest.

By the way floater 2 is with it as pic above shows.

[thermos]

:eek:

I keep thinking of Mitch or Michelle... Not that I'm saying this will be that strong, just the location of development is similar, and it's the same time of year.

Mitch These forums are so quiet. So many without power.

[bahamaswx]

I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.

ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture

Persistance is always key

Especially when any development will be very slow and gradual.

yep, how did you do by the way with wilma, ive been to nassau and its very beautiful

Nassau saw little more than a bit of rain and wind, and loss of cable internet access. We run our fibre optics through Florida, and though we have redundant lines, some fool decided those should run to the same place in Florida! Nevertheless, nothing much more than a poor day. Can't say the same for Freeport though, I'm sure they saw at least cat2 sustained.

[Ivanhater]

I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.

ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture

Persistance is always key

Especially when any development will be very slow and gradual.

yep, how did you do by the way with wilma, ive been to nassau and its very beautiful

Nassau saw little more than a bit of rain and wind, and loss of cable internet access. We run our fibre optics through Florida, and though we have redundant lines, some fool decided those should run to the same place in Florida! Nevertheless, nothing much more than a poor day. Can't say the same for Freeport though, I'm sure they saw at least cat2 sustained.

glad to hear yall did ok!

[tampaflwx]

I have a feeling this area of disturbed weather was just handed the ball and is about to run with it. I wouldn't doubt a thing with this season. In other words, I sniff a killer Beta fish lurking in these warm SW caribbean waters.

Current satellite imagery shows truly beautiful banding features for such an early system...



http://s4m.us/uploads/4be2d1601c.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

we don't have to worry about this one though right? isn't it supposed to just head into central america?

[WindRunner]

Invest up now . . . new thread it looks like.