Dry May is certain
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Scorpion
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MiamiensisWx
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MiamiensisWx
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CHRISTY
l: 
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CHRISTY
actually iam almost positve it actually helps in preventing storms from going out to sea.iam gonna look again to see if i can find the website were i read this.CapeVerdeWave wrote:Scorpion wrote:I have read conflicting arguments about whether a pos. or neg. nao recurves storms.
Me, too. I think a negative NAO may allow storms to recurve more.
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CHRISTY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 040117 LOOKS DRY AND HOT FOLKS...
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2006
.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DEW POINTS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO UPPER 50S ON THE EAST COAST...AND MID 60S ON THE WEST COAST.
FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGES
PLANNED.
FXUS62 KMFL 040117 LOOKS DRY AND HOT FOLKS...
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2006
.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DEW POINTS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO UPPER 50S ON THE EAST COAST...AND MID 60S ON THE WEST COAST.
FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGES
PLANNED.
0 likes
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CHRISTY
NOUS42 KTBW 042324
PNSTBW
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
715 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2006
...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN, NOT ALL THAT UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, HAS CONTINUED THROUGH APRIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE COMBINED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2006 ENDED
UP BEING IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
INCLUDING TAMPA, SARASOTA-BRADENTON, LAKELAND AND FORT MYERS. IN
GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTHWARD RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN FROM MARCH 1 TO APRIL 30 WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
WELL BELOW THE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES AND NEAR RECORD VALUES IN
MANY SPOTS.
BELOW ARE LISTS OF THE TOP TEN DRIEST MARCH'S AND APRIL'S COMBINED
(MARCH 1-APRIL 30) AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MAR/APR IN TAMPA: MAR/APR IN SARASOTA-BRADENTON:
1 0.24 IN 1898 1 0.53 IN 1967
2 0.66 IN 1967 2 0.75 IN 2006 *
3 0.74 IN 1907 3 0.94 IN 1981
4 0.84 IN 2000 4 1.01 IN 1971
5 1.03 IN 2006 * 5 1.07 IN 1977
6 1.12 IN 1999 6 1.37 IN 1963
7 1.40 IN 1922 7 1.38 IN 1975
8 1.43 IN 1904 8 1.52 IN 1999
9 1.59 IN 1977 9 1.57 IN 1974
10 1.63 IN 1938 10 1.62 IN 1968
NORMAL FOR TPA = 4.64 IN. NORMAL FOR SRQ = 5.19 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN APRIL 1890 RECORDS BEGAN JULY 1948
TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MAR/APR IN LAKELAND: MAR/APR IN FORT MYERS:
1 0.94 IN 2006 * 1 0.14 IN 1974
2 1.05 IN 1977 2 0.20 IN 1946
3 1.31 IN 1967 3 0.31 IN 1945
4 1.36 IN 1945 4 0.33 IN 2006 *
5 1.36 IN 1925 5 0.57 IN 1950
6 1.43 IN 1981 6 0.72 IN 1967
7 1.60 IN 1968 7 0.74 IN 1922
8 1.75 IN 1922 8 0.85 IN 1977
9 1.95 IN 1949 9 0.86 IN 1963
10 2.33 IN 1990 10 1.03 IN 1938
NORMAL FOR LAL = 5.42 IN. NORMAL FOR FMY = 4.41 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1915 RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1902
_____________________________________________________________________
IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2006 FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR MARCH-APRIL, OR
WHAT IS EXPECTED, THE PERCENT OF NORMAL, AS WELL AS THE MARCH-APRIL
RANKING SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT EACH LOCATION. FROM THE LIST WE CAN
SEE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE RANKED IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR
MARCH-APRIL SINCE THEIR RECORDS BEGAN.
ACTUAL NORMAL PERCENT YEAR
MAR-APR RAIN FOR OF MAR-APR RECORDS
LOCATION RAIN MAR/APR NORMAL RANKING BEGAN
WEEKI WACHEE 0.17 6.54 3% 1ST 1969
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 0.23 4.43 5% 2ND 1965
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 0.33 4.41 7% 4TH 1902
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 0.36 5.21 7% 1ST 1914
LAKE WALES 0.37 5.14 7% 1ST 1935
TARPON SPRINGS 0.45 5.81 8% 1ST 1892
VENICE 0.51 5.28 10% 2ND 1955
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 0.75 5.19 14% 2ND 1948
AVON PARK 2 W 0.86 5.19 16% 3RD 1892
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 0.90 5.58 16% 1ST 1969
WAUCHULA 2 N 0.90 5.64 16% 3RD 1933
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 0.94 5.42 17% 1ST 1915
DESOTO CITY 8 SW 1.00 5.30 19% 5TH 1947
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 1.03 4.64 22% 5TH 1890
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 1.11 6.84 16% 3RD 1892
ARCADIA 1.16 4.96 23% 6TH 1899
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 1.19 8.20 15% 2ND 1956
ST. LEO 1.47 6.41 23% 5TH 1895
PLANT CITY 1.78 5.59 32% 15TH 1893
INVERNESS 3 SE 2.28 6.57 35% 11TH 1899
_____________________________________________________________________
AS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL...MOST LOCATIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THESE NUMBERS ARE SEVERELY SKEWED FOR AREAS FROM AROUND
TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTH, SINCE HEAVY RAINS OF 4 TO OVER 10 INCHES
OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 3. IF WE REMOVE THE RAINFALL ON THIS DATE
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WOULD END UP BEING IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR
JANUARY TO APRIL.
IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
JANUARY THROUGH APRIL 2006 FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR THIS TIME, OR
WHAT IS EXPECTED, THE PERCENT OF NORMAL, AS WELL AS THE RANKING
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT EACH LOCATION.
ACTUAL NORMAL PERCENT YEAR
JAN-APR RAINFALL OF JAN-APR RECORDS
LOCATION RAIN JAN-APR NORMAL RANKING BEGAN
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 3.02 10.84 28% 4TH 1914
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 3.03 8.74 35% 6TH 1902
LAKE WALES 3.32 9.95 33% 4TH 1935
TARPON SPRINGS 3.68 12.12 30% 7TH 1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 3.92 8.96 44% 7TH 1965
ARCADIA 4.29 9.52 45% 14TH 1899
VENICE 4.36 10.12 43% 6TH 1955
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 4.52 10.28 44% 5TH 1969
AVON PARK 2 W 4.73 10.08 47% 33RD 1892
WAUCHULA 2 N 5.06 10.57 48% 12TH 1933
WEEKI WACHEE 5.47 13.37 41% 2ND 1969
DESOTO CITY 8 SW 6.22 10.18 61% 13TH 1947
ST. LEO 6.23 13.20 47% 14TH 1895
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 6.53 8.56 77% 17TH 1915
PLANT CITY 6.74 11.37 59% 23RD 1893
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 7.61 13.35 57% 23RD 1892
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 8.26 10.79 77% 16TH 1948
INVERNESS 3 SE 8.74 13.08 67% 26TH 1899
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 9.07 16.10 56% 5TH 1956
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 10.82 9.58 113% 70TH 1890
_____________________________________________________________________
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER STREAK OF DRY WEATHER AT
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN SINCE APRIL 9 WHICH MAKES
TODAY MAY 4 THE 25TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW
IS THE LIST OF 30 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT
TAMPA SINCE CONSISTENT RECORDS BEGAN ON APRIL 1, 1890.
NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES
1 52 10/09/1942 - 11/29/1942
2 47 03/30/1967 - 05/15/1967
2 47 10/06/1940 - 11/24-1940
4 45 03/23/1981 - 05/06/1981
5 44 12/26/1949 - 02/07/1950
6 40 02/27/2006 - 04/07/2006 *
6 40 11/01/1960 - 12/10/1960
6 40 02/20/1907 - 03/31/1907
9 39 12/12/1988 - 01/19/1989
10 38 02/12/1955 - 03/21/1955
10 38 10/12/1948 - 11/18/1948
12 37 10/04/2000 - 11/09/2000
13 36 05/09/1941 - 06/13/1941
14 35 04/27/2001 - 05/31/2001
14 35 12/21/1906 - 01/24/1907 **
16 34 11/16/1906 - 12/19/1906 **
17 33 03/11/1978 - 04/12/1978
17 33 11/23/1924 - 12/25/1924
19 32 04/15/1955 - 05/16/1955
19 32 04/15/1914 - 05/16/1914
21 31 05/11/2000 - 06/10/2000
21 31 11/15/1970 - 12/15/1970
21 31 03/21/1965 - 04/20/1965
24 30 02/15/2000 - 03/15/2000
24 30 01/23/1989 - 02/21/1989
24 30 10/04/1988 - 11/02/1988
24 30 11/03/1967 - 12/02/1967
24 30 10/04/1943 - 11/02/1943
24 30 01/15/1927 - 02/13/1927
24 30 02/21/1911 - 03/22/1911
* THE LAST STREAK ENDED WHEN SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA AROUND
11:30 PM EST APRIL 8 (12:30 AM EDT APRIL 9). THIS ENDED THE
STREAK AT 40 DAYS SINCE IT OCCURRED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME ON APRIL 8.
** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ONLY 0.09 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON
12/20/1906...OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 70 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
_____________________________________________________________________
AS FOR FORT MYERS, THEY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR, BUT
MEASURABLE RAIN HAS GENERALLY FALLEN EVERY COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS FROM LATE MARCH THROUGH MOST OF APRIL WHEN THERE
WERE 34 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW IS THE LIST
OF 30 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT FORT MYERS
SINCE CONSISTENT RECORDS BEGAN ON JANUARY 1, 1902.
NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES
1 80 12/29/2000 - 03/18/2001 ***
2 64 10/25/2000 - 12/27/2000 ***
3 63 01/20/1911 - 03/23/1911
4 51 03/27/1970 - 05/16/1970
5 50 12/27/1949 - 02/14/1950
6 48 10/20/1944 - 12/06/1944
7 47 02/19/1935 - 04/06/1935
8 46 01/21/1944 - 03/06/1944
9 43 03/30/1903 - 05/11/1903
10 42 11/17/1926 - 12/28/1926
11 40 12/12/1988 - 01/20/1989
11 40 11/02/1960 - 12/11/1960
13 39 10/18/1974 - 11/25/1974
14 38 10/10/1973 - 11/16/1973
14 38 11/13/1906 - 12/20/1906
16 37 10/21/1990 - 11/26/1990
16 37 03/29/1967 - 05/04/1967
18 36 04/10/1974 - 05/15/1974
19 35 12/27/1989 - 01/30/1990
19 35 04/06/1971 - 05/10/1971
19 35 11/03/1967 - 12/07/1967
22 34 03/24/2006 - 04/26/2006
22 34 03/23/1981 - 04/25/1981
22 34 11/14/1975 - 12/17/1975
22 34 03/25/1912 - 04/27/1912
22 34 12/22/1906 - 01/24/1907
27 33 10/14/1948 - 11/15/1948
27 33 02/22/1904 - 03/25/1904
29 32 01/24/2005 - 02/24/2005
29 32 03/16/1999 - 04/16/1999
29 32 02/20/1955 - 03/23/1955
29 32 02/03/1949 - 03/06/1949
29 32 03/29/1946 - 04/29/1946
29 32 02/20/1908 - 03/22/1908
35 31 11/06/2001 - 12/06/2001
35 31 10/04/1998 - 11/03/1998
35 31 12/29/1959 - 01/28/1960
35 31 05/08/1941 - 06/07/1941
39 30 10/05/1981 - 11/03/1981
39 30 11/16/1970 - 12/15/1970
39 30 03/22/1965 - 04/20/1965
39 30 03/29/1964 - 04/27/1964
39 30 10/03/1963 - 11/01/1963
39 30 11/15/1949 - 12/14/1949
39 30 10/08/1943 - 11/06/1943
39 30 09/29/1940 - 10/28/1940
39 30 10/30/1931 - 11/28/1931
39 30 03/25/1910 - 04/23/1910
*** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD 0.45 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON 12/28/2000...
OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 145 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE TABLE ABOVE LONG STRETCHES OF 30 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAVE OCCURRED MORE OFTEN
AT FORT MYERS, 48 OCCURRENCES, AS OPPOSED TO 30 AT TAMPA DURING
ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
_____________________________________________________________________
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS IS FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
USUALLY BY THE FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF JUNE THE THUNDERSTORM SEASON
BEGINS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW/ THEN CLICK ON THE LOCAL CLIMATE PAGE
LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE MENU.
$$
PRC
PNSTBW
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
715 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2006
...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN, NOT ALL THAT UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, HAS CONTINUED THROUGH APRIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE COMBINED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2006 ENDED
UP BEING IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
INCLUDING TAMPA, SARASOTA-BRADENTON, LAKELAND AND FORT MYERS. IN
GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTHWARD RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN FROM MARCH 1 TO APRIL 30 WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
WELL BELOW THE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES AND NEAR RECORD VALUES IN
MANY SPOTS.
BELOW ARE LISTS OF THE TOP TEN DRIEST MARCH'S AND APRIL'S COMBINED
(MARCH 1-APRIL 30) AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MAR/APR IN TAMPA: MAR/APR IN SARASOTA-BRADENTON:
1 0.24 IN 1898 1 0.53 IN 1967
2 0.66 IN 1967 2 0.75 IN 2006 *
3 0.74 IN 1907 3 0.94 IN 1981
4 0.84 IN 2000 4 1.01 IN 1971
5 1.03 IN 2006 * 5 1.07 IN 1977
6 1.12 IN 1999 6 1.37 IN 1963
7 1.40 IN 1922 7 1.38 IN 1975
8 1.43 IN 1904 8 1.52 IN 1999
9 1.59 IN 1977 9 1.57 IN 1974
10 1.63 IN 1938 10 1.62 IN 1968
NORMAL FOR TPA = 4.64 IN. NORMAL FOR SRQ = 5.19 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN APRIL 1890 RECORDS BEGAN JULY 1948
TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MAR/APR IN LAKELAND: MAR/APR IN FORT MYERS:
1 0.94 IN 2006 * 1 0.14 IN 1974
2 1.05 IN 1977 2 0.20 IN 1946
3 1.31 IN 1967 3 0.31 IN 1945
4 1.36 IN 1945 4 0.33 IN 2006 *
5 1.36 IN 1925 5 0.57 IN 1950
6 1.43 IN 1981 6 0.72 IN 1967
7 1.60 IN 1968 7 0.74 IN 1922
8 1.75 IN 1922 8 0.85 IN 1977
9 1.95 IN 1949 9 0.86 IN 1963
10 2.33 IN 1990 10 1.03 IN 1938
NORMAL FOR LAL = 5.42 IN. NORMAL FOR FMY = 4.41 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1915 RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1902
_____________________________________________________________________
IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2006 FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR MARCH-APRIL, OR
WHAT IS EXPECTED, THE PERCENT OF NORMAL, AS WELL AS THE MARCH-APRIL
RANKING SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT EACH LOCATION. FROM THE LIST WE CAN
SEE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE RANKED IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR
MARCH-APRIL SINCE THEIR RECORDS BEGAN.
ACTUAL NORMAL PERCENT YEAR
MAR-APR RAIN FOR OF MAR-APR RECORDS
LOCATION RAIN MAR/APR NORMAL RANKING BEGAN
WEEKI WACHEE 0.17 6.54 3% 1ST 1969
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 0.23 4.43 5% 2ND 1965
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 0.33 4.41 7% 4TH 1902
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 0.36 5.21 7% 1ST 1914
LAKE WALES 0.37 5.14 7% 1ST 1935
TARPON SPRINGS 0.45 5.81 8% 1ST 1892
VENICE 0.51 5.28 10% 2ND 1955
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 0.75 5.19 14% 2ND 1948
AVON PARK 2 W 0.86 5.19 16% 3RD 1892
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 0.90 5.58 16% 1ST 1969
WAUCHULA 2 N 0.90 5.64 16% 3RD 1933
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 0.94 5.42 17% 1ST 1915
DESOTO CITY 8 SW 1.00 5.30 19% 5TH 1947
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 1.03 4.64 22% 5TH 1890
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 1.11 6.84 16% 3RD 1892
ARCADIA 1.16 4.96 23% 6TH 1899
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 1.19 8.20 15% 2ND 1956
ST. LEO 1.47 6.41 23% 5TH 1895
PLANT CITY 1.78 5.59 32% 15TH 1893
INVERNESS 3 SE 2.28 6.57 35% 11TH 1899
_____________________________________________________________________
AS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL...MOST LOCATIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THESE NUMBERS ARE SEVERELY SKEWED FOR AREAS FROM AROUND
TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTH, SINCE HEAVY RAINS OF 4 TO OVER 10 INCHES
OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 3. IF WE REMOVE THE RAINFALL ON THIS DATE
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WOULD END UP BEING IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR
JANUARY TO APRIL.
IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
JANUARY THROUGH APRIL 2006 FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR THIS TIME, OR
WHAT IS EXPECTED, THE PERCENT OF NORMAL, AS WELL AS THE RANKING
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT EACH LOCATION.
ACTUAL NORMAL PERCENT YEAR
JAN-APR RAINFALL OF JAN-APR RECORDS
LOCATION RAIN JAN-APR NORMAL RANKING BEGAN
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 3.02 10.84 28% 4TH 1914
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 3.03 8.74 35% 6TH 1902
LAKE WALES 3.32 9.95 33% 4TH 1935
TARPON SPRINGS 3.68 12.12 30% 7TH 1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 3.92 8.96 44% 7TH 1965
ARCADIA 4.29 9.52 45% 14TH 1899
VENICE 4.36 10.12 43% 6TH 1955
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 4.52 10.28 44% 5TH 1969
AVON PARK 2 W 4.73 10.08 47% 33RD 1892
WAUCHULA 2 N 5.06 10.57 48% 12TH 1933
WEEKI WACHEE 5.47 13.37 41% 2ND 1969
DESOTO CITY 8 SW 6.22 10.18 61% 13TH 1947
ST. LEO 6.23 13.20 47% 14TH 1895
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 6.53 8.56 77% 17TH 1915
PLANT CITY 6.74 11.37 59% 23RD 1893
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 7.61 13.35 57% 23RD 1892
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 8.26 10.79 77% 16TH 1948
INVERNESS 3 SE 8.74 13.08 67% 26TH 1899
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 9.07 16.10 56% 5TH 1956
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 10.82 9.58 113% 70TH 1890
_____________________________________________________________________
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER STREAK OF DRY WEATHER AT
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN SINCE APRIL 9 WHICH MAKES
TODAY MAY 4 THE 25TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW
IS THE LIST OF 30 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT
TAMPA SINCE CONSISTENT RECORDS BEGAN ON APRIL 1, 1890.
NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES
1 52 10/09/1942 - 11/29/1942
2 47 03/30/1967 - 05/15/1967
2 47 10/06/1940 - 11/24-1940
4 45 03/23/1981 - 05/06/1981
5 44 12/26/1949 - 02/07/1950
6 40 02/27/2006 - 04/07/2006 *
6 40 11/01/1960 - 12/10/1960
6 40 02/20/1907 - 03/31/1907
9 39 12/12/1988 - 01/19/1989
10 38 02/12/1955 - 03/21/1955
10 38 10/12/1948 - 11/18/1948
12 37 10/04/2000 - 11/09/2000
13 36 05/09/1941 - 06/13/1941
14 35 04/27/2001 - 05/31/2001
14 35 12/21/1906 - 01/24/1907 **
16 34 11/16/1906 - 12/19/1906 **
17 33 03/11/1978 - 04/12/1978
17 33 11/23/1924 - 12/25/1924
19 32 04/15/1955 - 05/16/1955
19 32 04/15/1914 - 05/16/1914
21 31 05/11/2000 - 06/10/2000
21 31 11/15/1970 - 12/15/1970
21 31 03/21/1965 - 04/20/1965
24 30 02/15/2000 - 03/15/2000
24 30 01/23/1989 - 02/21/1989
24 30 10/04/1988 - 11/02/1988
24 30 11/03/1967 - 12/02/1967
24 30 10/04/1943 - 11/02/1943
24 30 01/15/1927 - 02/13/1927
24 30 02/21/1911 - 03/22/1911
* THE LAST STREAK ENDED WHEN SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA AROUND
11:30 PM EST APRIL 8 (12:30 AM EDT APRIL 9). THIS ENDED THE
STREAK AT 40 DAYS SINCE IT OCCURRED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME ON APRIL 8.
** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ONLY 0.09 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON
12/20/1906...OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 70 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
_____________________________________________________________________
AS FOR FORT MYERS, THEY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR, BUT
MEASURABLE RAIN HAS GENERALLY FALLEN EVERY COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS FROM LATE MARCH THROUGH MOST OF APRIL WHEN THERE
WERE 34 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW IS THE LIST
OF 30 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT FORT MYERS
SINCE CONSISTENT RECORDS BEGAN ON JANUARY 1, 1902.
NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES
1 80 12/29/2000 - 03/18/2001 ***
2 64 10/25/2000 - 12/27/2000 ***
3 63 01/20/1911 - 03/23/1911
4 51 03/27/1970 - 05/16/1970
5 50 12/27/1949 - 02/14/1950
6 48 10/20/1944 - 12/06/1944
7 47 02/19/1935 - 04/06/1935
8 46 01/21/1944 - 03/06/1944
9 43 03/30/1903 - 05/11/1903
10 42 11/17/1926 - 12/28/1926
11 40 12/12/1988 - 01/20/1989
11 40 11/02/1960 - 12/11/1960
13 39 10/18/1974 - 11/25/1974
14 38 10/10/1973 - 11/16/1973
14 38 11/13/1906 - 12/20/1906
16 37 10/21/1990 - 11/26/1990
16 37 03/29/1967 - 05/04/1967
18 36 04/10/1974 - 05/15/1974
19 35 12/27/1989 - 01/30/1990
19 35 04/06/1971 - 05/10/1971
19 35 11/03/1967 - 12/07/1967
22 34 03/24/2006 - 04/26/2006
22 34 03/23/1981 - 04/25/1981
22 34 11/14/1975 - 12/17/1975
22 34 03/25/1912 - 04/27/1912
22 34 12/22/1906 - 01/24/1907
27 33 10/14/1948 - 11/15/1948
27 33 02/22/1904 - 03/25/1904
29 32 01/24/2005 - 02/24/2005
29 32 03/16/1999 - 04/16/1999
29 32 02/20/1955 - 03/23/1955
29 32 02/03/1949 - 03/06/1949
29 32 03/29/1946 - 04/29/1946
29 32 02/20/1908 - 03/22/1908
35 31 11/06/2001 - 12/06/2001
35 31 10/04/1998 - 11/03/1998
35 31 12/29/1959 - 01/28/1960
35 31 05/08/1941 - 06/07/1941
39 30 10/05/1981 - 11/03/1981
39 30 11/16/1970 - 12/15/1970
39 30 03/22/1965 - 04/20/1965
39 30 03/29/1964 - 04/27/1964
39 30 10/03/1963 - 11/01/1963
39 30 11/15/1949 - 12/14/1949
39 30 10/08/1943 - 11/06/1943
39 30 09/29/1940 - 10/28/1940
39 30 10/30/1931 - 11/28/1931
39 30 03/25/1910 - 04/23/1910
*** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD 0.45 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON 12/28/2000...
OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 145 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE TABLE ABOVE LONG STRETCHES OF 30 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAVE OCCURRED MORE OFTEN
AT FORT MYERS, 48 OCCURRENCES, AS OPPOSED TO 30 AT TAMPA DURING
ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
_____________________________________________________________________
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS IS FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
USUALLY BY THE FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF JUNE THE THUNDERSTORM SEASON
BEGINS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW/ THEN CLICK ON THE LOCAL CLIMATE PAGE
LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE MENU.
$$
PRC
0 likes
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CHRISTY
STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE !CONFIRMED TODAY BY THE NWS....ITS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT THIS YEAR SO FAR IN MY OPINION! 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA!
FXUS62 KMFL 050848
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
448 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY AND SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST STATES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH A NEAR
STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STABLE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. EVEN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WILL NOT LIKELY
HELP IN FORMATION OF PRECIP TODAY. WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW..THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE STIFLED...A
WEAK ONE MAY FORM BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE VERY FAR
WESTWARD. SO ALL IN ALL ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SEEM
INSUFFICIENT IN SCALE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BE LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY THE
LINGERING EDGE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW...ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INCREASE. WILL JUST HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGIONAL GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...SEAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE NO GULF STREAMS HAZARDS TODAY. A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM LATER TODAY BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH OR LAST ENOUGH TIME TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT. LASTLY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE THERE IS
NO SWELL EXPECTED TO AFFECT REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE TERM OF
THE FORECAST.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA!
FXUS62 KMFL 050848
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
448 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY AND SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST STATES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH A NEAR
STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STABLE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. EVEN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WILL NOT LIKELY
HELP IN FORMATION OF PRECIP TODAY. WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW..THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE STIFLED...A
WEAK ONE MAY FORM BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE VERY FAR
WESTWARD. SO ALL IN ALL ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SEEM
INSUFFICIENT IN SCALE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BE LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY THE
LINGERING EDGE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW...ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INCREASE. WILL JUST HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGIONAL GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...SEAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE NO GULF STREAMS HAZARDS TODAY. A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM LATER TODAY BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH OR LAST ENOUGH TIME TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT. LASTLY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE THERE IS
NO SWELL EXPECTED TO AFFECT REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE TERM OF
THE FORECAST.
Last edited by CHRISTY on Fri May 05, 2006 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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March and April Rainfall in NE Florida is the lowest on record in quite a few decades
Less than 2 inches of rain was record for both March and April combined
pretty much all of Florida is hurting:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/p_imag ... 06_pct.gif
Less than 2 inches of rain was record for both March and April combined
pretty much all of Florida is hurting:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/p_imag ... 06_pct.gif
0 likes
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CHRISTY
SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES DRY....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
.UDPATE...BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN
PALM BEACH COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF IS KEEPING DEW POINTS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE UPPER 60S THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ON
THE EAST COAST ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS ARE JUST OVER INCH ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OUR BASIC SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
SAME THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE IS NOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND
OUR ZONES ARE ON ITS WESTERN END. THE ONLY DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN
THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN ITS STRENGTH. THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY
RELATED TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS WAS INDICATED EARLIER WE ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TODAY THAN WE HAVE BEEN THIS WEEK. THIS SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGING
SOME OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
STILL IS NOT DEEP MOISTURE BUT MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS. WE COULD HAVE MINIMAL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE STILL IN THE DRY SEASON AND BASICALLY A DRY
PATTERN WILL LEAVE THESE LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS OUT OF THE TEXT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE COULD SEE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING UP THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WE NEED FOR CONVECTION. SO HAVE DECIDED TO PUT THE
FIRST REAL CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
FAR THIS YEAR THESE UPPER TROUGHS HAVE NOT BEEN AS DEEP AS FORECAST
SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DUD.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
.UDPATE...BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN
PALM BEACH COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF IS KEEPING DEW POINTS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE UPPER 60S THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ON
THE EAST COAST ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS ARE JUST OVER INCH ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OUR BASIC SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
SAME THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE IS NOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND
OUR ZONES ARE ON ITS WESTERN END. THE ONLY DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN
THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN ITS STRENGTH. THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY
RELATED TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS WAS INDICATED EARLIER WE ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TODAY THAN WE HAVE BEEN THIS WEEK. THIS SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGING
SOME OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
STILL IS NOT DEEP MOISTURE BUT MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS. WE COULD HAVE MINIMAL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE STILL IN THE DRY SEASON AND BASICALLY A DRY
PATTERN WILL LEAVE THESE LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS OUT OF THE TEXT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE COULD SEE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING UP THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WE NEED FOR CONVECTION. SO HAVE DECIDED TO PUT THE
FIRST REAL CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
FAR THIS YEAR THESE UPPER TROUGHS HAVE NOT BEEN AS DEEP AS FORECAST
SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DUD.
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CHRISTY
RIDGE HOLDING STEADY!!!
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061411
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1011 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2006
.UPDATE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTS A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT NEAR 1 INCH AT MIA ON
MORNING SOUNDING)...WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY.
UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY JUST TO REFLECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
MET...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S...EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...RUNNING SOME 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SHOWN BY BOTH THE
NAM AND WRF. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 90S INTERIOR...LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH`S ARE EXPECTED
THERE. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT COASTAL ZONES WILL MEET THE RFW
CRITERIA IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE THE RFW AS IS FOR NOW
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS. /DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061411
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1011 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2006
.UPDATE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTS A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT NEAR 1 INCH AT MIA ON
MORNING SOUNDING)...WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY.
UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY JUST TO REFLECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
MET...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S...EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...RUNNING SOME 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SHOWN BY BOTH THE
NAM AND WRF. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 90S INTERIOR...LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH`S ARE EXPECTED
THERE. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT COASTAL ZONES WILL MEET THE RFW
CRITERIA IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE THE RFW AS IS FOR NOW
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS. /DG
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
MiamiensisWx
It looks like dry conditions may slowly retreat as ridging continues to be rather weaker than earlier and slowly weaken. It is also interesting that my area and eastern Palm Beach County is mre closer to normal than earlier because of more developing popup thunderstorms than earlier, including in western areas moving to the east. All this may prove to be some good news, along with the approach of the rainy season.
000
FGUS72 KMFL 051600
ESFMFL
FLZ063-066>075-080800-
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES...
...REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...
THE DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS AFFECTED SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE FEBRUARY HAS
PERSISTED INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAPLES AND
MARCO ISLAND RECEIVING ONLY 0.17 AND 0.13 INCHES OF RAIN
RESPECTIVELY SINCE FEBRUARY 6TH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY
PATTERN HAS BEEN OVER METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A FEW HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO PUSH THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.
THE RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS AND DEPARTURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM JANUARY 1, 2006 TO APRIL 30, 2006 ARE:
AIRPORTS : YEARLY : YEARLY : APRIL
TOTALS DEPARTURES DEPARTURES
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 5.12 : -4.75 : -3.13
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 7.71 : -4.64 : -2.42
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL :10.88 : -2.67 : +1.12
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 3.85 : -6.14 : -1.99
SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES
IMMOKALEE : 5.53 : -4.06 : -1.84
DEVILS GARDEN : 3.71 : -5.98 : -1.42
CLEWISTON : 4.92 : -4.62 : -1.13
BELLE GLADE : 7.44 : -2.08 : -1.14
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 6.15 : -3.17 : -1.36
MIAMI BEACH : 4.98 : -4.61 : -2.15
THE SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN LOW THROUGH APRIL...
EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE IT HAS BEEN VERY
LOW. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS RANGED
BETWEEN 600 TO 700 OVER MOST LOCATIONS. WELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ARE RUNNING AT ONLY 10 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL LEVELS.
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WELLS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS AT 13.5 FEET WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
(D1). THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
(D0).
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS...LEADING
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE MAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE START OF THE RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH
FLORIDA IS DURING THE THIRD AND FOURTH WEEKS OF MAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
$$
BAXTER/MOLLEDA
000
FGUS72 KMFL 051600
ESFMFL
FLZ063-066>075-080800-
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES...
...REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...
THE DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS AFFECTED SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE FEBRUARY HAS
PERSISTED INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAPLES AND
MARCO ISLAND RECEIVING ONLY 0.17 AND 0.13 INCHES OF RAIN
RESPECTIVELY SINCE FEBRUARY 6TH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY
PATTERN HAS BEEN OVER METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A FEW HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO PUSH THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.
THE RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS AND DEPARTURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM JANUARY 1, 2006 TO APRIL 30, 2006 ARE:
AIRPORTS : YEARLY : YEARLY : APRIL
TOTALS DEPARTURES DEPARTURES
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 5.12 : -4.75 : -3.13
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 7.71 : -4.64 : -2.42
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL :10.88 : -2.67 : +1.12
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 3.85 : -6.14 : -1.99
SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES
IMMOKALEE : 5.53 : -4.06 : -1.84
DEVILS GARDEN : 3.71 : -5.98 : -1.42
CLEWISTON : 4.92 : -4.62 : -1.13
BELLE GLADE : 7.44 : -2.08 : -1.14
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 6.15 : -3.17 : -1.36
MIAMI BEACH : 4.98 : -4.61 : -2.15
THE SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN LOW THROUGH APRIL...
EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE IT HAS BEEN VERY
LOW. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS RANGED
BETWEEN 600 TO 700 OVER MOST LOCATIONS. WELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ARE RUNNING AT ONLY 10 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL LEVELS.
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WELLS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS AT 13.5 FEET WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
(D1). THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
(D0).
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS...LEADING
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE MAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE START OF THE RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH
FLORIDA IS DURING THE THIRD AND FOURTH WEEKS OF MAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
$$
BAXTER/MOLLEDA
0 likes
-
Scorpion
NOUS42 KMLB 052031
PNSMLB
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
...DRIEST JANUARY-APRIL ON RECORD FOR ORLANDO...
THE DRY PATTERN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
PRODUCED A RECORD LOW RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE ORLANDO AREA. THE
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM JANUARY 1ST TO APRIL 30TH AT THE ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 3.86 INCHES. THIS WAS 6.88 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THAT PERIOD...OR JUST 36% OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL.
THE RAINFALL FOR KISSIMMEE WAS ALSO A RECORD DRY 4 MONTHS WITH ONLY
3.15 INCHES MEASURED OR JUST 30% OF NORMAL.
SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS...WHILE NOT RECORD LOW STARTS...WERE BELOW
50% OF NORMAL FOR THE JANUARY TO APRIL PERIOD.
LISBON - 6.07 INCHES - 47% OF NORMAL
DAYTONA BEACH - 5.76 INCHES - 47% OF NORMAL
VERO BEACH - 5.48 INCHES - 44% OF NORMAL
MELBOURNE - 4.08 INCHES - 41% OF NORMAL.
$$
PNSMLB
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006
...DRIEST JANUARY-APRIL ON RECORD FOR ORLANDO...
THE DRY PATTERN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
PRODUCED A RECORD LOW RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE ORLANDO AREA. THE
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM JANUARY 1ST TO APRIL 30TH AT THE ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 3.86 INCHES. THIS WAS 6.88 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THAT PERIOD...OR JUST 36% OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL.
THE RAINFALL FOR KISSIMMEE WAS ALSO A RECORD DRY 4 MONTHS WITH ONLY
3.15 INCHES MEASURED OR JUST 30% OF NORMAL.
SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS...WHILE NOT RECORD LOW STARTS...WERE BELOW
50% OF NORMAL FOR THE JANUARY TO APRIL PERIOD.
LISBON - 6.07 INCHES - 47% OF NORMAL
DAYTONA BEACH - 5.76 INCHES - 47% OF NORMAL
VERO BEACH - 5.48 INCHES - 44% OF NORMAL
MELBOURNE - 4.08 INCHES - 41% OF NORMAL.
$$
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