GOM is very active right now......

#61 Postby **tgenius** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:04 pm

Why do the newer frames on the IR and visable make the smaller blob ahead of the bigger one growing? It looks like it's expanded in size albeit losing some steam in the process?

#62 Postby **feederband** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:12 pm

tgenius wrote:Why do the newer frames on the IR and visable make the smaller blob ahead of the bigger one growing? It looks like it's expanded in size albeit losing some steam in the process?

It's blobbing...

#63 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:14 pm

feederband wrote:
tgenius wrote:Why do the newer frames on the IR and visable make the smaller blob ahead of the bigger one growing? It looks like it's expanded in size albeit losing some steam in the process?

It's blobbing...

LOL

big time.

Rainband · #64 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:16 pm

Looks like the rain is expanding north. ABC11 was saying that most of the rain would be from Pasco south. Seems like it may expand north a bit??

#65 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:17 pm

I hope so, Rainband. We sure need it.

Javlin · #66 Postby **Javlin** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I can't tell if it has a closed circulation...the Infrared seems to suggest it does somewhat, the radar doesn't...

Only way to see a developing surface low is a VIS sat pic.

jrod · #67 Postby **jrod** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:19 pm

Javlin wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I can't tell if it has a closed circulation...the Infrared seems to suggest it does somewhat, the radar doesn't...

Only way to see a developing surface low is a VIS sat pic.

Dvorak, shortwave infrared.....

Sean in New Orleans · #68 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:27 pm

It's not tropical...if anything, it could become sub-tropical. Nevertheless, I would certainly pray it North if I could, we need the rain bad in SE Louisiana.

#69 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:30 pm

IMO this has a better chance of development than some of the other blobs ive seen so far this year; but im stopping short of saying the we will have Alberto anytime soon. Its May, and a TS or STS developing at the tail end of a frontal boundary in the GOM is not unheard of.

HouTXmetro · #70 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:31 pm

Is it just me or do I see a cyclonic flow in that blob?

Extremeweatherguy · #71 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:32 pm

I doubt this will be anything but a rainmaker.

rainstorm · #72 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:33 pm

with a huge trough sitting to its north, development is rather unlikely

Sean in New Orleans · #73 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:34 pm

Oh, it's nothing...it's really nothing. It's wayyyyy too early for drama, IMO. It's a bunch of rain and we all need it...whoever gets it is the lucky one!

CHRISTY · #74 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:35 pm

CHRISTY · #75 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:35 pm

HouTXmetro · #76 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:36 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Oh, it's nothing...it's really nothing. It's wayyyyy too early for drama, IMO. It's a bunch of rain and we all need it...whoever gets it is the lucky one!

We got it in Houston Sunday. I was caught driving in a hail storm!!!

#77 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:36 pm

00
AXNT20 KNHC 152316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL
DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
8N51W-10N56W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N24W 2N42W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE E US EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE SW ALONG 29N85W 25N96W S TO 23N97W THEN NW ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 22N TO THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W AND AND FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NE PORTION OF FLORIDA. DUE TO THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE LARGE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE E US...THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF IS MOSTLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO APPROACHING THE W
GULF.

#78 Postby **windycity** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:37 pm

stranger things have happened,but i doubt anything will develop other than RAIN!!!I am a very happy girl as i look outside and see the drops. Hope it really rains tomarrow!

whereverwx · #79 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:38 pm

CHRISTY wrote:http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/IR/isagul.gif

Just thought I'd point out that Tampa is an island in that picture... lol

Sean in New Orleans · #80 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:40 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Oh, it's nothing...it's really nothing. It's wayyyyy too early for drama, IMO. It's a bunch of rain and we all need it...whoever gets it is the lucky one!

We got it in Houston Sunday. I was caught driving in a hail storm!!!

Hail?! It's definitely not anything close to tropical!!

GOM is very active right now......

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