Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

[Jagno]

Here is the latest from the GFS:

-Low moves up and over Cuba, then develops out into the Atlantic between June 5th and June 7th.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^low in Atlantic^^

-Low forms in southern Gulf on June 15th, then moves north and makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Low on June 15th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml
^^Low making landfall^^

I pray that this doesn't materialize. I'm not finished rebuilding from Rita and discovered yesterday my roof is still leaking.............inside all of the exterior walls on the south side of my house.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is the latest from the GFS:

-Low moves up and over Cuba, then develops out into the Atlantic between June 5th and June 7th.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^low in Atlantic^^

-Low forms in southern Gulf on June 15th, then moves north and makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Low on June 15th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml
^^Low making landfall^^

I pray that this doesn't materialize. I'm not finished rebuilding from Rita and discovered yesterday my roof is still leaking.............inside all of the exterior walls on the south side of my house.

It's a pretty long way out... gfs is not too accurate this far out in time. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[skysummit]

I second SouthFloridawx's opinion. This is not the first storm that the GFS forecasted to hit the TX/LA border in the past few weeks. If it was accurate at long range, we would've already had 3 or 4 landfalls.

[beachbum_al]

I would have to say that this is too far out to know anything. I hope it doesn't happen but i am not going to worry either. We are talking at least 13 days on one of those forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

thats not good, it right in the worst spot at the worst time!

[Jagno]

Weather for dummies.............................any more updates on this system

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS still showing it in the long range, but I am still not going to buy it until it shows it at Day 5 or sooner.

[skysummit]

Boy the GFS is smoking something this morning!

The 06z shows a system developing near the BoC at 180 hours and then moving north making landfall near NOLA at 228 hours. All the while another system is developing in the BoC also moving north to make landfall near NOLA at 288 hours giving NOLA a 1, 2 punch.

It also begins to form a low in the Atlantic at 180 hours moving west, skirting the extreme southern Carribean and making landfall near Belize at 360 hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Boy the GFS is smoking something this morning!

The 06z shows a system developing near the BoC at 180 hours and then moving north making landfall near NOLA at 228 hours. All the while another system is developing in the BoC also moving north to make landfall near NOLA at 288 hours giving NOLA a 1, 2 punch.

It also begins to form a low in the Atlantic at 180 hours moving west, skirting the extreme southern Carribean and making landfall near Belize at 360 hours.

though the exact landfall area may not be right (and hopefully it isn't), this could be a good sign that the GFS is seeing something happen in that time frame.

[skysummit]

Maybe....wasn't it near 180 hours that the GFS began picking up on the Carribean blob? I guess we'll see just how good that bad boy is!

[tailgater]

Boy the GFS is smoking something this morning!

The 06z shows a system developing near the BoC at 180 hours and then moving north making landfall near NOLA at 228 hours. All the while another system is developing in the BoC also moving north to make landfall near NOLA at 288 hours giving NOLA a 1, 2 punch.

It also begins to form a low in the Atlantic at 180 hours moving west, skirting the extreme southern Carribean and making landfall near Belize at 360 hours.

Did someone change the name of the MM5 to GFS.

[ronjon]

Boy the GFS is smoking something this morning!

The 06z shows a system developing near the BoC at 180 hours and then moving north making landfall near NOLA at 228 hours. All the while another system is developing in the BoC also moving north to make landfall near NOLA at 288 hours giving NOLA a 1, 2 punch.

It also begins to form a low in the Atlantic at 180 hours moving west, skirting the extreme southern Carribean and making landfall near Belize at 360 hours.

If the GFS 06Z run is only half right, then the tropics are gonna heat up in the next 7-10 days. This run is probably out to lunch with all the low pressure development but the pattern looks more summer-like with the Bermuda High getting established and a deep SE wind flow over the FL peninsula. Looks like the larger atmospheric players are there to start pumping copious amounts of tropical moisture into FL and the SE.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[skysummit]

Yea, we may get to see the tropics open up in the next few weeks. I like your analogy of "if the GFS 06Z run is only half right". I didn't think of it that way.

[boca]

Is the GFS the best model out there. If it is in my opinion thats not good. The GFS is like the boy who cried wolf after so many phantom storms whose going to believe the model when a real storm develops. If its 72 hors or sooner I'll believe the model.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is the GFS the best model out there. If it is in my opinion thats not good. The GFS is like the boy who cried wolf after so many phantom storms whose going to believe the model when a real storm develops. If its 72 hors or sooner I'll believe the model.

I visited the Channel 6 (WKMG) News station in Orlando, FL yesterday and talked to meterologist Larry Mowry (who is a real met with a degree from Valparaiso university). He said that over the last few years the GFS model has been the best at forecasting tropical systems. He says that by being the "best" in no way means it is right, but that compared to the other models it is usually better. No model though is right 100% of the time though (especially beyond day 5).

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop thru 384 hours

As usual this run from GFS shows many things thru 384 hours but nothing that is bullish towards a developing cyclone.

[CHRISTY]

The CANADIAN model is showing a hurricane/tropical storm into New orleans...Thanks god its the only one!

Here the link to the canadian model...just hit play.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

Here's the image out to 144 hours...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting can't say it won't happen

[tailgater]

Thanks Christy or should I say no thanks. I could certainly use the rain but not the wind or mass hysteria.

[CHRISTY]

i really the CMC has joined the GFS on the fantasy stuff.....