Swirl over Yucatan

[tailgater]

Yes the UUL has dissipated but the trough is still there somewhat, keep a eye on the BOC Today and tomorrow.

[BayouVenteux]

Geeez....I thought we'd at least get a few drops out of this up here. We got a little rain yesterday, but that was because of a summer pop. Talk about a stingy ULL!

While there's no rain drops, at least there's a little optimism in the air. Our local (New Orleans) NWS discussion thinks we might possibly climb out of that dismal 0%-20% POP range we seem to constantly find ourselves in:

MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BEGINNING TO DRAW THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SE GULF NORTHWESTWARD FRIDAY ARRIVING HERE BY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% FOR THIS REASON BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE SOLUTIONS IN CASE THE SYSTEM OUT WEST IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THIS TO HAPPEN.

Similarly, the Lake Charles NWS a.m. discussion hints at some possible relief, although like the N.O. office, they're not overly confident at present...

HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MEAN UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...FINALLY GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AT THIS POINT AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD...AND IMPULSES LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. BOTH THE GFS/DGEX SHOW A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROMISING TIME FOR RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR NOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL...BUT ALSO HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE LIFTING OUT ON SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

If this swirl was over the Lesser Antiles it would have bombed.