91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey Christy What is you link to the model I Been looking for one.

Which one?

Christy do you have a link for those forecast model graphics? It would be greatly apprciated if you could hook us up with that.

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

the Model plots for 91E

ive got to update my account with hurricane alley later on tonight.tommorow i will begin posting model plots for 91E.

Can you post a link to hurricane alley so we may have access to those links?

[cycloneye]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

SouthFloridawx here it is.

[CHRISTY]

ive got to update my account with hurricane alley later on tonight.tommorow i will begin posting model plots for 91E.and iam gonna be getting all kind of new stuff!

here is what i will have starting tommorow for the atlantic and the pacific.

1.Computer Model Output
2.Reconnaissance Flight Vortex Output
3.Spaghetti Model Output
4.Strike Probability
5.Forecasted Wind Swath and Location Impact
6.Vortex versus forecast track
7.Computer Model Forecast Analysis
8.Steering Wind/Forecast Track
9.Wind Shear Satellite over current position
10.Reconnaissance Flight Schedule


http://www.hurricanealley.net/

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

SouthFloridawx here it is.

Thanks.. I think i'll purchase the subscription.

[CHRISTY]

This thing is about to take off.here is a visible image!

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, it's being heavily sheared, and it's still within the ITCZ. Shear is around 30KT or so just to it's northwest. See the latest shear values here. There is also dry air to it's northwest.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252223
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON... AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Jim Cantore]

how long has this been an invest?

[cycloneye]

how long has this been an invest?

Only look at the first post of thread.

[Jim Cantore]

seems like longer

but then again, August 28th was a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG day

[CHRISTY]

This IR loop is from the old satellite page but u can see the convection flareing up with 91E

Here's the link...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html

[Epsilon_Fan]

looking good!

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Banding features are appearing on SAT pictures. I have know idea why the NHC says organization has changed "little".

[CHRISTY]

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH THE BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

according to the NHC no change tonight in organization with 91E...

Here a Close up IR image.

[tailgater]

Early morning Visible satetile pics are looking impressive, probably our first tropical system of the year" IMHO"
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/180.jpg
somewhere @ 13.5N 101W

[MiamiensisWx]

Poof! It's really feeling the effects of the shear now and is looking less organized. However, I think it is still possible for it to possibly slowly come back a bit by redeveloping consolidating convection a bit, especially since shear - although high at 30KT to 40KT - is slowly decreasing. Other than that, it's still in the ITCZ, and I don't see much else going for it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Aquawind]

The Early Visable zoomed loop looks unorganized..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[P.K.]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 26 2006

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED TO ALONG 101W FROM 7N TO 15N. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 10 KT. A LOW PRES IS NEAR 12.5N ALONG THE
WAVE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 12.6N99.2W.
THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE ORGANIZATION BUT HAS PERSISTED FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.