TD#1 Advisories

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR
FORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF
40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT
CONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A
REGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN
24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.4N 86.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[CrazyC83]

Seems like they were playing it conservative with their language.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Being conservative? Or playing it safe?

[P.K.]

WTNT31 KNHC 110841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A
MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[P.K.]

WTNT41 KNHC 110843
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

QUIKSCAT DATA...NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A SHIP REPORT FROM
WCY8453 INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE WEST
OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK...INDEED PROBABLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE
CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION...AND INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT CMAN
STATION...NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS...REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF
36 KT SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z IN A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND...BUT I AM LOATH TO
UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE
RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/8. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. THIS SHEARING FLOW LEADS TO TWO VERY
DIFFERENT FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND
GFDL MODELS MAINTAIN OR STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION AND LIFT IT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS IS
THE SCENARIO THAT THE LAST FEW OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE FOLLOWED...
AND WHICH I WILL MAINTAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A
SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE
DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND
DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DAYLIGHT IMAGERY
AND/OR RECONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE WESTERN CENTER IS THE
ONLY CENTER...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.5N 87.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.7N 87.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0600Z 46.0N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[P.K.]

Interesting to see they also release an advisory in this form as I've also seen from the other RSMCs/TCWCs.

FKNT21 KNHC 110843
TCANT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0900Z SUN JUN 11 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060611/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: ONE
NR: 005
PSN: N2330 W08700
MOV: NW 08KT
C: 1003HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 111800 N2442 W08724
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 120000 N2521 W08712
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 120600 N2600 W08700
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 035KT
NXT MSG: 20060611/1500Z

[Thunder44]

Perhaps we won't be seeing Alberto after all.

[P.K.]

First time I've seen this one.

TCCA23 KNHC 110902
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN JUN 11 2006


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
11/0615 UTC 23.2N 86.8W 325/08 10.5 IN 6.8 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.4 IN 0.4 TO 2.9 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.3 TO 0.7 IN 0.3 TO 2.3 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.7 IN 0.8 TO 6.8 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.5 IN 0.2 TO 4.4 IN


...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)

[KWT]

Oh yes the rainfall thing, I was looking at that yesterday, very useful feature and gives a good idea of how 'wet' the system is and as you can see, its a very lop-sided system still.

[Grease Monkey]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.5N
87.0W AT 11/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 335 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST...
MOVING NW 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO
40 KT. THE MOST RECENT NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE
BEST CENTER IS W OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH IS SUBSTANTIATED
BY NEARBY BUOYS/SHIPS. HOWEVER THERE STILL MAY BE MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION LIKE
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10 MIN MEAN WIND OF 30 KT GUSTING
TO 38 KT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD GIVE IT
THE NAME ALBERTO. HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SW WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE CENTER AS THE DEPRESSION HAS LEFT UPPER RIDGING IN THE
CARIBBEAN BEHIND. A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE IT GOES AFTERWARD. HOW MUCH INFLUENCE A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ON THIS SYSTEM IS IN
DOUBT WITH SOME MODELS STILL TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATING IT OVER THE GULF
BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR. IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CUBA CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THE SYSTEM COULD BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR SOME
RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA WHO HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FROM A DROUGHT AS
LONG AS IT DOESN'T INTENSIFY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W.