91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[no advance]

Hard to see a center I guess I pick the one over the big lake O

[drezee]

Not sure about the S one, but winds are pretty strong in the storms.
Tropical Storm force gust last hour:

25/15 MLRF1 25.0 -80.3 24.1 270 23 G 26 250 35 1013.2 1.1 28.7 MLRF1

[stormtruth]

I'm not even sure I would call this a "thing"......it's more like an "area." The idea of actually having a spaghetti model plot for this kinda cracks me up.

I think this board way overhyped this "event"...not every t-storm over water is a Katrina, Rita or Wilma in the making.

Oh well, at least it's overcast out, for once. Still only sparse rainfall, though....nothing to write home about.

The board "overhypes" a lot of events.

Yeah that's usually the case but most especially early in the season when trackers are eager for something to develop... probably in late August you won't need to overhype, an active season will help mitigate that... personally I'd rather have the overhype than any of this come to fruition... regardless, Aug and Sept should be some interesting months... lets enjoy whatever quiet we can get for the time being...

The board isn't overhyping this since it is something the NHC is talking about developing. Overhyping is when the board talks about something the NHC ignores.

[cpdaman]

this thing has no room to develop off melbourne

[TampaFl]

I see two vortices based on radar and SAT. One that everyone mentioned riding N-NW along the coast near Melbourne and another located on the south side of the big lake near the Henry/Palm Beach County line moving off toward the west. The lowest pressure is present at Vero Beach at 28.88 in.

Corrected to mean 29.88"


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... b&loop=yes

Robert

[Frank P]

If you read all the posts on the board there are other areas of convection that members are talking about that the NHC is not even mentioning, nor probably will mention, this happens all the time... there is NOT a cloud in the tropics that doesn't get noticed or discussed.... don't get me wrong, it doesn't bother me in the least, and after all, this is a tropical weather discussion forum, so this is what should happen... heck, this is the first place I go to find out what's going on in the tropics because nothing ever goes unnoticed here... which is good....but I think there has been a lot of hype associated with the posts that I've read over the years... I don't find anything wrong with it as I just relate it to the passion of the weather enthusiasts that frequent this forum....

[cpdaman]

here here

[Recurve]

OT -- Glad to see you around on the TT board Frank. Hope your recovery is progressing in Biloxi.

[cpdaman]

what a big difference in perspective between the water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

and the visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

imo i expect that weak vortex arond melbourne to spin/bend west in land around the ULL shown on water vapor i am shocked the NHC singled that out and gave it a motion (NNW at 10) but hey they are smarter than me

[cpdaman]

btw WHAT are the signs of an ULL or MLC turning into a subtropical low (since this will be a hybrid system if anything)

[rockyman]

Any chance of a center forming on the Gulf side?

This map indicates some mid-level cyclonic turning off the SW coast of Florida:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

Wind shear is much weaker over the Gulf:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

it's off cape canaveral at the 10:30 TWO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[rockyman]

Cocoa, FL down to 29.82 (just under 1010mb)--this is a "personal weather station"

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Cocoa.html

[cpdaman]

i live in wellington, FL (west of west palm) and i noticed the wind definitely pick up late this morning from the south gusty to about 20

anyone check out how much rain has fallen in the keys and parts of south florida last day or so ( spots between marathon and keywest or just offshore up to a FOOT of rain)

[Frank P]

OT -- Glad to see you around on the TT board Frank. Hope your recovery is progressing in Biloxi.

thanks Recurve... we hope to start rebuilding on the beach in Biloxi the first week in July.... but a little higher this time.... I just hope that the tropics stay quiet for as long as possible... and if they do crank up, they stay away from the MS and LA coasts... we need a long reprieve..

[Thunder44]

This is from the Afternoon tropical discussion from TPC:

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM AND VERO BEACH NEAR
27N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH THE LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN
IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN
78W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

[NONAME]

They still think it could devlop is it still offshore.

[Scorpion]

THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

Don't some high pressure systems have similar or lower pressure than that?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is Recon still flying into this the system today????!??.

[drezee]

Is Recon still flying into this the system today????!??.

..
no