94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[skysummit]

Nice vantage point:

[Extremeweatherguy]

the cort max is moving to the WNW, and may not get far offshore

Only real chance is for a new center to form

JB says this (the system as a whole) will be moving north tomorrow.

[Rainband]

the cort max is moving to the WNW, and may not get far offshore

Only real chance is for a new center to form

96/20 blow up looks interesting. Could that be where a new center is forming derek??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

the cort max is moving to the WNW, and may not get far offshore

Only real chance is for a new center to form

Thanks...We will have to watch if a new one can develop under the MLC moving slowly northward.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not know what JB is seeing, but the system likely will be inland in about 12 hurs, assuming that it is even over the water now

[Air Force Met]

This is what the nhc should say.

A tropical distrabance over the southwestern BOC is slowly moving northward. In surface obs and satellite shows that a LLC is forming. Convection is organizing over that LLC. In a tropical depression or storm maybe forming at any time.

A recon plane is planed for later today.

This is what I plan to see from the nhc

A area of convection is over the BOC, which has upper level shear and closeness to land should make any development slow.

With no tropical storm development next couple of days.

Kind of like that.

Well...I would say their assesment of the situation would be correct...given the situation...satellite pics...and the fact the pressure is 1017mb and hasn't fallen much over the southern GOM...even during the diurnal min.

[jasons2k]

Looks like Gert2 almost

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pro-mets can I see what data you got...I know the flow would send this system into mexico. But there a upper low over Mexico with southwestly upper level flow out ahead of it north of 20 north. Look at water vapor map. Also the ob stations show a surface low of some kind near the surface very close to the coast.

I'm trying to learn how this stuff. So its always good to ask quastions.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow - that post got deleted f-a-s-t

I deleted it myself after looking at the Sat. loops another time. I will wait until the TWO until I comment on anything.

[Extremeweatherguy]

5:30pm TWO:

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE HIGH
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

and now it says "elsewhere" TS formation is not expect through Friday.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Why am I not suprised that they say "Slow to Occur".

[Opal storm]

Why am I not suprised that they say "Slow to Occur".

Well considering the conditions this thing is in,they're right...development will be slow to occur if any.

[Air Force Met]

Pro-mets can I see what data you got...I know the flow would send this system into mexico. But there a upper low over Mexico with southwestly upper level flow out ahead of it north of 20 north. Look at water vapor map. Also the ob stations show a surface low of some kind near the surface very close to the coast.

I'm trying to learn how this stuff. So its always good to ask quastions.

All I am looking at is the obs from 42055 and from the satellite imagery. I see no rotation (not enough to even hint at anything closed at the sfc) in the lower CU field. Now...given the mid-level flow forecast to develop...there could be some energy break off and head north over the next couple of days. It is something that needs to be watched...but there is nothin iminent right now...you would see the lower level cu rotating through the cirrus (which is possible by just looking at the GHCC site) to the SW of the convective blob AND the wind field would not be E-W to the east of the convective blob over the western Yuck...like it is now...there would be more cyclonic turning if there were a LLC forming.

[Air Force Met]

5:30pm TWO:

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE HIGH
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

and now it says "elsewhere" TS formation is not expect through Friday.

And there is my "SFC pressures are HIGH" comment...

"and the fact the pressure is 1017mb..."

[Rainband]

Pro-mets can I see what data you got...I know the flow would send this system into mexico. But there a upper low over Mexico with southwestly upper level flow out ahead of it north of 20 north. Look at water vapor map. Also the ob stations show a surface low of some kind near the surface very close to the coast.

I'm trying to learn how this stuff. So its always good to ask quastions.

All I am looking at is the obs from 42055 and from the satellite imagery. I see no rotation (not enough to even hint at anything closed at the sfc) in the lower CU field. Now...given the mid-level flow forecast to develop...there could be some energy break off and head north over the next couple of days. It is something that needs to be watched...but there is nothin iminent right now...you would see the lower level cu rotating through the cirrus (which is possible by just looking at the GHCC site) to the SW of the convective blob AND the wind field would not be E-W to the east of the convective blob over the western Yuck...like it is now...there would be more cyclonic turning if there were a LLC forming.

That makes sense. Thanks

[Johnny]

And there ya go...Thanks AFM.

[Portastorm]

Dang Air Force Met! ... you're always bringing facts and reality into these discussions!

[Thunder44]

They have 1007mb pressure listed for 94L here:


http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

But I don't believe it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow a 10 mb drop in 2 seconds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pro-mets can I see what data you got...I know the flow would send this system into mexico. But there a upper low over Mexico with southwestly upper level flow out ahead of it north of 20 north. Look at water vapor map. Also the ob stations show a surface low of some kind near the surface very close to the coast.

I'm trying to learn how this stuff. So its always good to ask quastions.

All I am looking at is the obs from 42055 and from the satellite imagery. I see no rotation (not enough to even hint at anything closed at the sfc) in the lower CU field. Now...given the mid-level flow forecast to develop...there could be some energy break off and head north over the next couple of days. It is something that needs to be watched...but there is nothin iminent right now...you would see the lower level cu rotating through the cirrus (which is possible by just looking at the GHCC site) to the SW of the convective blob AND the wind field would not be E-W to the east of the convective blob over the western Yuck...like it is now...there would be more cyclonic turning if there were a LLC forming.

Thanks...Airforcemet I got the obs from looking at the map of the south and western side of this. But I did not yet look at 42055 yet. Also it is likely its the conveciton making the turning. I got a bad head cold so I did not look very good. Thank you for the nice discussion.