94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[HouTXmetro]

It was associated with a wave, how does such a system work it's way to the surface. I'm curious. What are the dynamics?

[vbhoutex]

My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

So you're saying your scenario is keeping it weak then?

I think it may start weak, then gradually work itself into a moderate or strong TS and then make landfall as a strong TS/minimal Hurricane. Really though, it is WAY to early to tell, I am going to let it develop first before getting real confident in that scenario. That just seems like the most plausible scenario right now.

I think as far as this scenario is concerned the biggest probability is that your track is, unfortunately, probably close. Copius amounts of rainfall is also probable with this system along its' track. Unless the shear maps have some majic in them to make what they are depicting happen, this will not become anymore than a weak TD at most if it makes that. JMHO. The shear is still killer-look at the visibiles. There may be a swirl in the clouds, but there is nothing under the former blob right now that I can see.(Just in case, I am going to look at another visible quickly, in case I have to come back and quickly eat my words ) Edit: I stand by my words above.

[The Sandcrab]

Hi y'all. I'm looking hard, but I don't see any spin, certainly not low level, and to me, it looks a little less organized over the past few frames, not more. However, some of that associated tropical moisture is moving over areas of Houston that were recently under water.

[HouTXmetro]

Hi y'all. I'm looking hard, but I don't see any spin, certainly not low level, and to me, it looks a little less organized over the past few frames, not more. However, some of that associated tropical moisture is moving over areas of Houston that were recently under water.

Welcome Sand Crab!!!!

[HouTXmetro]

My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

So you're saying your scenario is keeping it weak then?

I think it may start weak, then gradually work itself into a moderate or strong TS and then make landfall as a strong TS/minimal Hurricane. Really though, it is WAY to early to tell, I am going to let it develop first before getting real confident in that scenario. That just seems like the most plausible scenario right now.

I think as far as this scenario is concerned the biggest probability is that your track is, unfortunately, probably close. Copius amounts of rainfall is also probable with this system along its' track. Unless the shear maps have some majic in them to make what they are depicting happen, this will not become anymore than a weak TD at most if it makes that. JMHO. The shear is still killer-look at the visibiles. There may be a swirl in the clouds, but there is nothing under the former blob right now that I can see.(Just in case, I am going to look at another visible quickly, in case I have to come back and quickly eat my words ) Edit: I stand by my words above.

Don't know what it means but you don't see the intensifying convection developing along the NE side of the circualtion?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It was associated with a wave, how does such a system work it's way to the surface. I'm curious. What are the dynamics?

I'm not thinking very clearly still got the head cold.

Ok a low pressure area(Tropical area of low pressure) has the air moving into the area of low pressure. In which comes together then the warmer air(fast moving atoms/molc)rise into the Atmopshere. In which cool at 5.5 degrees per thousand feet. Once the temperature reachs it dew point=the air has expanded and forms cloud droplet on sand or something else. Then clouds form when many of these droplets come together.

As the heat forms into clouds which has mass. In which the earth at the equater moves at a thousand miles per hours...While the poles move only a few feet on a axis of 23.5 degrees. What this doe's is turn the winds across the globe to the right. In which is why the low pressure area's move counter-clockwise over the northern hem. This then as more heat/laten heat is released into the Atmosphere tightens the pressure grad forcing more air upwards=more convection and stronger winds.

Thats what I'v studied into it. Theres more.

[vbhoutex]

My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

So you're saying your scenario is keeping it weak then?

I think it may start weak, then gradually work itself into a moderate or strong TS and then make landfall as a strong TS/minimal Hurricane. Really though, it is WAY to early to tell, I am going to let it develop first before getting real confident in that scenario. That just seems like the most plausible scenario right now.

I think as far as this scenario is concerned the biggest probability is that your track is, unfortunately, probably close. Copius amounts of rainfall is also probable with this system along its' track. Unless the shear maps have some majic in them to make what they are depicting happen, this will not become anymore than a weak TD at most if it makes that. JMHO. The shear is still killer-look at the visibiles. There may be a swirl in the clouds, but there is nothing under the former blob right now that I can see.(Just in case, I am going to look at another visible quickly, in case I have to come back and quickly eat my words ) Edit: I stand by my words above.

Don't know what it means but you don't see the intensifying convection developing along the NE side of the circualtion?

Yes I see it and it is another developing complex of thunderstorms at this point and nothing else, imo. I'm not saying nothing can come of it, but I don't see anything at this point. Watch it? Most definitely!! Worry about it? Not yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

On the floater loop the spin is MUCH clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[HouTXmetro]

It was associated with a wave, how does such a system work it's way to the surface. I'm curious. What are the dynamics?

I'm not thinking very clearly still got the head cold.

Ok a low pressure area(Tropical area of low pressure) has the air moving into the area of low pressure. In which comes together then the warmer air(fast moving atoms/molc)rise into the Atmopshere. In which cool at 5.5 degrees per thousand feet. Once the temperature reachs it dew point=the air has expanded and forms cloud droplet on sand or something else. Then clouds form when many of these droplets come together.

As the heat forms into clouds which has mass. In which the earth at the equater moves at a thousand miles per hours...While the poles move only a few feet on a axis of 23.5 degrees. What this doe's is turn the winds across the globe to the right. In which is why the low pressure area's move counter-clockwise over the northern hem. This then as more heat/laten heat is released into the Atmosphere tightens the pressure grad forcing more air upwards=more convection and stronger winds.

Thats what I'v studied into it. Theres more.

Thanks for the detailed analysis. I'm still a little lost though.

[Air Force Met]

On the floater loop the spin is MUCH clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's cirrus spinning...nothing at the surface...not even close. It's much clearer on the GHCC high res than on the floater that that is what it is.

Not sure why you guys look at the floater from the SSD page for vis loops instead of the GHCC in the GOM...unless it is a bandwith problem. The images come in much more frequently and are of higher quality at the GHCC.

[Agua]

I can discern no LLC.

[Portastorm]

GHCC?

[HouTXmetro]

On the floater loop the spin is MUCH clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's cirrus spinning...nothing at the surface...not even close. It's much clearer on the GHCC high res than on the floater that that is what it is.

Not sure why you guys look at the floater from the SSD page for vis loops instead of the GHCC in the GOM...unless it is a bandwith problem. The images come in much more frequently and are of higher quality at the GHCC.

Do you have the link?

[Air Force Met]

GHCC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Set to animate...at 100%...zoom factor high...as many frames as you want...15 or 20...even 30. Then click on the area in question.

[jasons2k]

It doesn't look very impressive to me yet.

[Portastorm]

GHCC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Set to animate...at 100%...zoom factor high...as many frames as you want...15 or 20...even 30. Then click on the area in question.

Nice ... very nice!

Thanks for the link, AFM.

[southerngale]

KFDM links to GHCC and I've been using it for a few years. I like it much better and the loops load much quicker than the Java loops on the NHC site, at least for me.

If you click on the link Kevin Cho posted, you can choose VIS, IR, or WV and the area you want.

[Extremeweatherguy]

On the floater loop the spin is MUCH clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's cirrus spinning...nothing at the surface...not even close. It's much clearer on the GHCC high res than on the floater that that is what it is.

Not sure why you guys look at the floater from the SSD page for vis loops instead of the GHCC in the GOM...unless it is a bandwith problem. The images come in much more frequently and are of higher quality at the GHCC.

I'm not saying it is at the surface, but it is a spin though.

[southerngale]

On the floater loop the spin is MUCH clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's cirrus spinning...nothing at the surface...not even close. It's much clearer on the GHCC high res than on the floater that that is what it is.

Not sure why you guys look at the floater from the SSD page for vis loops instead of the GHCC in the GOM...unless it is a bandwith problem. The images come in much more frequently and are of higher quality at the GHCC.

I'm not saying it is at the surface, but it is a spin though.

There's a spin in my toilet...still doesn't mean much.

Ok, I'm just kidding you know.

[stormtruth]

Wow the GHCC rocks!