Mike Doran wrote:x-y-no wrote:
OK, so if I'm understanding you right, you're saying that a capacitive charge between the ocean surface and the ionosphere over a storm somehow influences the storm's dynamics.
So what's the total size of that capacitive charge, and what's the magnitude of the force imparted by that charge relative to the magnitude of forces imparted by the commonly understood elements of cyclogenesis and storm dynamics - surface heat, latent heat of evaporation, etc?
Specifically how does the existence of this capacitive charge influence any aspect of the storm's dynamics?
To be more complex, there are a number of relatively charged particles between space and below the ocean surface. They are connected by static fields. There is the van Allen belts, the upper and lower ionosphere and then the ocean surface and subsurface. It is well known that in general the lower ionosphere is positively charged relative to the ocean surface.
Observed voltage transiants that have been observed over hurricanes are on order of kV/m -- the exact same voltages used in the China paper linked above which describes observable morphology changes in super cooling and then freezing water in such a field. What happens is some parts of the storm experiance this capacitive coupling and other parts are literally protected from that field by their water content in the clouds. So the water vapor ends up diffusing to places where convection processes occur with cloud droplets with more symetrical, and therefore more efficient convection. So it becomes about differences in phase change energies between air that is convecting protected by clouds from the DC field and air that is not protected and subject to altered cloud microphysics by the DC field. In accumulation, these energies become substantial, because you get relatively warm air added to where convection is occurring and subsistance where it is not. This is why the tallest clouds in the world are in the eyes of tropical storms.
So the claim is that the presence of this electric field enhances normal convective process in storms? If there were some persistent anomaly in the behavior of convection in storms then this could be worth pursuing. But I'm not aware of any such anomaly - the physics of atmospheric convection is quite well understood and modeled as far as I know.
This appears to me to be a solution in search of a problem.
Examples are the difference between a hurricane over land and a hurricane over warm water. A hurricane over land experiances 1,000-5,000 times more resistance of the land compared to the salt water. Quickly the storm becomes disorganized.
Ummm ... no. Storms become disorganized over land because they lose the energy input from warm surface waters and from condensation. There's no need to invoke any other explanation.
Another example would be Hurricane Charley. I have images of a 60k plus strike event (20k per hour) in a line to the NW of the storm. It blew up two catagories and right turned against the models toward the strikes. Why?
Go back and look at the discussions on this very board as Charley was crossing Cuba and you'll find that we were discussing the likely intensification and also the probability that the track would be on the right hand side of the cone. This was all based on the normal factors considered in forecasting hurricanes - surface water temperatures, upper air environment, etc.
The landfall of Charley was well within the forecast cone, Punta Gorda was under hurricane warning for a full day before landfall and hurricane watch well before that. The forecast intensity at landfall, IIRC, was Cat 3 - a little low but not dramatically so.
Again, I don't see the problem. As far as I'm concerned, there was nothing mysterious about Charley's behavior at all.
Another example would be the W. Pacific storm currently going. Three of the past four days--60k plus events (20k per hour) in the CONUS helping to power it. Clearly thunderstorms in Asia. This is what it takes. It's fractal, but it's useful.
Also observable are larger strike events on landfalls, indicative of the capacitive mathematics involved (C-> 0, V-> high).
Again, I just don't see the need to invoke some mysterious connection with electrical activity to explain a storm which is perfectly well explained by our ubderstanding as it stands.
Who knows - you may make a fool of me - but I have to apply Occam's razor in this case and say that "there's no there there" IMHO.
