NW Carribean

#61 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:44 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Then again the CMC isn't really useful if you think about it.

Don't knock the CMC. I gained a lot of respect for it since it was the very first model to pick up on Alberto.

HurricaneHunter914 · #62 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:45 pm

Yeah you could say that, but then again Alberto is just one TC.

#63 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:47 pm

Posted in another thread...Accuweather is watching it..

#64 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:47 pm

I realize that, but it picked up on Alberto about a week in advance when we were all laughing at it. It also picked up on 93L trying to develop off the east coast. We all know how close 93L got. Maybe they replaced the batteries in the off season :lol:

#65 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:52 pm

While this is not developing now( outflow boundary etc. mentioned in my above posts) this has been persistent which is step #1, and is moving into a more favorable area. It also has some model support with the Canadian now on board. At the very least, it is something to keep a close eye on through the weekend. If it were to develop, my thinking is it would be a Bret, Gert type storm.

#66 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:56 pm

Something to watch since the NoGaps has chimed in.....and the Houston NWS made mention of the Caribbean Wave being drawn up to SE Texas next week.

#67 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:57 pm

yep, just saw the Nogaps...hmm..I am now issuing a Bear Watch :lol:

#68 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:58 pm

Ivanhater wrote:yep, just saw the Nogaps...hmm..I am now issuing a Bear Watch

I posted the models in the NW gulf thread.

#69 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:59 pm

And I do not quite understand the NHC on this one right now...I agree this is not developing right now but I do not think this is associated with the ULL anymore.

#70 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:01 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:yep, just saw the Nogaps...hmm..I am now issuing a Bear Watch

I posted the models in the NW gulf thread.

Yep, I am becoming more interested in this as the days go by..it has stood the test of time so far with its persistence.

HurricaneHunter914 · #71 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:05 pm

Ivanhater wrote:And I do not quite understand the NHC on this one right now...I agree this is not developing right now but I do not think this is associated with the ULL anymore.

I guess they want to take a break and are hoping nothing forms. :lol:

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:05 pm

Invest by tommorow? Depends on organization of the system.

HurricaneHunter914 · #73 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:06 pm

And the enviorment around the system.

#74 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Invest by tommorow? Depends on organization of the system.

Could be one by this weekend, I feel players are starting to come together for some type of system to develop, we have a front stalling out in the gulf with this wave moving in from the east. It will look like a big mess in the gulf in the immediate future but I think something will try to take shape over the weekend

HurricaneHunter914 · #75 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:11 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Look how this big ball of convection continues to grow, and that grey area has also continues to persist.

#76 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:53 pm

Just another vantage point:

Opal storm · #77 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:05 pm

If it moves NW I think it will have a better chance at forming into something in the BOC/SW Gulf,but if it moves west it's going to have to much land to deal with.

canegrl04 · #78 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:10 pm

This is the closest we've come yet to seeing the possible formation of Beryl.The convection has been persistently strong all day

Extremeweatherguy · #79 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:51 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Posted in another thread...Accuweather is watching it..

Jb said he is watching it, but is not overly concerned yet. He says another wave toward the middle part of next week may have a better chance. Either way, he has mentioned that TX is probably going to see some action in the early part of this season. He has said that similar seasons have brought storms to the TX coast by August 15th (Similar seasons = 1999, 1954, 2003).

Extremeweatherguy · #80 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:52 pm

canegrl04 wrote:This is the closest we've come yet to seeing the possible formation of Beryl.The convection has been persistently strong all day

I don't think it is the closest yet. A few before this one had a much better chance and failed. However, if this persists into the Gulf, then it very well could become Beryl down the road.

NW Carribean

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