96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Derek Ortt]

unless the system were to cross the equator, then planetary vorticity would be negative and working against the relative vorticity

this will not occur, and likely enither will development of this sorry looking wave

[Ivanhater]

unless the system were to cross the equator, then planetary vorticity would be negative and working against the relative vorticity

this will not occur, and likely enither will development of this sorry looking wave

Hmm, I was taught Planetary vorticity was always positive in the Northern Hemisphere...

Planetary Vorticity

any object on earth will acquire planetary vorticity

generated by the rotating earth

is zero at equator

is maximum at pole (one revolution per day)

is always positive (cyclonic)

So, an air parcel that is stationary relative to the earth's surface will have planetary vorticity
http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met13 ... _vort.html

Edit...Could be reading your post wrong Derek, you may mean it would become negative if it crosses to the southern hemisphere, not sure

[CrazyC83]

Here's how I see it:

The main stumbling block this blob has is wind shear. If wind shear subsides in the Caribbean to very little, this could be a potentially dangerous storm (not just becoming Beryl, but possibly a major hurricane).

If that doesn't happen, this is going nowhere. That seems to be the much more likely situation.

[whereverwx]

Poof by the end of today, IMO.



Very similar to TD Ten and Nineteen when it goes poof.

[Aquawind]

At least a temporary poof..and thus lack of persistence..

Ole imageshack is popping up some nasty junk..money in the bank for me.. I hate it when they try to make it look official..

[cheezyWXguy]

ya but TD 10 became katrina...it died as 10, 11 formed by mexico, and this was renamed 12 and became katrina, so it wasnt gone for good

[whereverwx]

ya but TD 10 became katrina...it died as 10, 11 formed by mexico, and this was renamed 12 and became katrina, so it wasnt gone for good

Well, similar environment is what I mean. They were both surrounded by dry air (which helped kill it), like most other Cape Verde waves last year.

[Derek Ortt]

Ivan. what you were taught is true, because if it crosses the eq, the system is then in the SH

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041



A very slight drop in pressure but nothing to open eyebrows.The winds at that bouy at 46w are fairly brisk from the east to eastnortheast.The axis still has not passed 46w the longitud of the bouy so let's see if there are noticible changes or there is nothing abnormal.

[skysummit]

Still no 12z plots? I haven't received anything yet. Has anyone else?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Score another for 2006!!!

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater,finnally the main page of NRL has updated everything.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[bvigal]

2pmTWD
"...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 37W-45W."

I think it's too soon to either decide on development, or write this one off. On the one hand is climatology, it is only early July. On the other hand this thing has been covered with dust for 2 days, and is still managing convection, however weak.

[cheezyWXguy]

i have a feeling that it may have a chance to slightly develop to TD 2 briefly, weaken to a weak low, and once it gets to the w. caribbean in about a week it could finaly become beryl...

[Brent]

Meh. I just don't see this developing anytime soon. This year is just not impressive to me for some reason. Lots of weak and marginal invests. Not sure if I had enough last year or what...

Might be something to watch once it gets to the Western Caribbean.

[bvigal]

Still no 12z plots? I haven't received anything yet. Has anyone else?

The Canadian 12z has just come out, no sign of this as a future low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... index.html

[Grease Monkey]

i have a feeling that it may have a chance to slightly develop to TD 2 briefly, weaken to a weak low, and once it gets to the w. caribbean in about a week it could finaly become beryl...

Now how many times have we heard something similiar to this. Well I guess we'll be bound to get it right eventually.

[cycloneye]

The 12z UKMET doesn't show anything.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

As long as this wave has convection and is over water, it should be watched whether the chances of development are 0% or 100%.

[cheezyWXguy]

i have a feeling that it may have a chance to slightly develop to TD 2 briefly, weaken to a weak low, and once it gets to the w. caribbean in about a week it could finaly become beryl...

Now how many times have we heard something similiar to this. Well I guess we'll be bound to get it right eventually.

lol ya thats true...this one just gives me a gut feeling...I remember reading in an earlier post in Houston AFD that theres a chance this thing may move into the GOM