Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[whereverwx]

Wow, that is pretty impressive.

[WmE]

TWD:
TROPICAL STORM BUD CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W...OR 570 NM WSW OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 11/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING IMPRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HRS WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN
ONCE AROUND THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHADOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...POSSIBLY THE
BEGINNINGS OF A BANDING EYE. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING A BIT...BUT
THIS IS A NORMAL CYCLE AND FURTHER INTENSIFCATION IS EXPECTED.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 120
NW SEMICIRCLES.

[CrazyC83]

I think we have Hurricane Bud coming shortly...and perhaps a major hurricane?

[Cyclenall]

Based on the current structure and outflow/convective pattern, it looks like Bud may be VERY close to a hurricane, if not one already. The circulation patterns and QUICKSCAT patterns support this somewhat. Current intensity is likely around 60KT to 65KT.

I agree 100%.

I think we have Hurricane Bud coming shortly...and perhaps a major hurricane?

A major hurricane could occur if Bud continues doing what he is doing currently. All I know is he is going wild. Hurricane Bud is likely at this point.

If this was in the Atlantic, everyone would be going crazy. I know I would. Also, I believe Bud is amazing me right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If this is getting an eye, Then make it a hurricane already.

[whereverwx]

Looks pretty interesting on the AVN, too...

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Here is what I think will happen to Bud in the next five days: (note I am quite aggressive on the prediction)

Current - 14.4/113.0 - 996mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 15.0/114.5 - 984mb - 80mph
24 hrs - 15.5/115.9 - 974mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 16.1/117.3 - 963mb - 115mph
48 hrs - 16.5/119.0 - 955mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 16.8/120.6 - 958mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 17.1/122.8 - 966mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 16.9/126.5 - 979mb - 75mph
120 hrs - 16.5/131.0 - 993mb - 50mph

[HurricaneHunter914]

In the Atlantic this would have been a hurricane already (because of recon).

[HurricaneBill]

I think we have Hurricane Bud coming shortly...and perhaps a major hurricane?

It is possible. Darby in July 2004 was able to reach 105 KT before moving over cooler waters.

[Jam151]

This has an eye, it should be a cane right now, don't know what the hold up is.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a pocket of dry air has made it in. But there also appears to be a pin point eye,with reds/northern eyewall starting to wrap around it...I wish the 85h data would come in to tell me more. I would say 55 knots right now.

But overall a very good looking system with outflow at all sides. This thing could bomb into something very serious.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Increasing shear over Bud.

[Thunder44]

Latest visible and infrared images from GHCC site really show the center clearing out. It looks to me like this is becoming a hurricane tonight.

[bombarderoazul]

This is a hurricane already, someone change the name to Hurricane Bud.

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 112229
TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
2230 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.1W AT 11/2230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.1W AT 11/2230Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME

[WindRunner]

We definately have an eye on us now!



EDIT: a hurricane it is!

SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5

Not often you see a special advisory in the EPAC!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoooo!!! BOMB baby BOMB!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's one good looking eye!

[clfenwi]

WTPZ43 KNHC 112234
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
330 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BUD HAS DEVELOPED A BANDED EYE
FEATURE...INDICATING IT IS NOW A HURRICANE AND IS ALSO UNDERGOING
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY...INCREASE THE
INTENSITY TREND...AND EXPAND THE WIND RADII. BUD IS SEVERAL HOURS
INTO ITS PRESENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2230Z 14.2N 113.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 114.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.3N 118.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.8N 120.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME

[HurricaneHunter914]

WOW! They expect a MAJOR HURRICANE FROM BUD!

[WindRunner]

Now the official forecast calls for a Cat 2 by tomorrow morning and almost a major by Thursday morning. Who woulda thought that this would happen? Well, actually, I think most of us were thinking that, but anyway, still amazing!