the quitest season on record

[whereverwx]

Jesse V. Bass, where our you I just asked a question for you so please answer it

Message boards aren't like chatrooms, so just be patient.

[Anonymous]

Jesse V. Bass, where our you I just asked a question for you so please answer it

Maybe he stepped away from the computer?

[wxmann_91]

please note that this is a message to Jesse V. Bass or vacanechaser ONLY but any way Jesse so you are still saying that you think more east coast hurricanes than the gulf of mexico am I correct???
and there is NOT going to be a el nino am I correct and which part of the area is most likely at risk along the east coast and please tell me why that you think that, Also and Jesse I am very sorry about all this confusion with relationships but can we all just get along in this earth and be very friendly too each other please

thankyou

You can PM him the message, Will.

[marcane_1973]

If there is not a hurricane formed by the last week in August then this will be a BELOW AVERAGE YEAR!!!! I think as of right now that this will be a less active season because conditions do not look too spectacular out there and do not seem to want to change anytime soon. All the waves coming off of Africa have no chance of forming because they are simply TOO FAR SOUTH. If this does not change come September than this will be the slowest season in the last 10 years. Most past seasons we have seen 2 to 3 Hurricanes by now. We have not even seen a 75 mph hurricane out there yet. If i am wrong then let me eat all the crow there is. Every invest we are watching seems to fizzle out with the atmosphere conditions winning the 2006 season battle SO FAR.

[Normandy]

Weve had 3 storms, and a FEW that one could argue could have been close.

I don't see how anyone can call this season inactive.
Its beyond me, it really is.

[wxmann_91]

Now marcane, let's not jump the gun here. 1997 had not even one storm in August. Due to the El Nino, I believe only 7 storms formed that year, four of them in June-July.

With the possible El Nino taking shape later, and the hostile conditions at this time (which is why the situation now cannot be compared to 2004), I think predictions over 15 NS/8 HU/5 MH are in jeopardy. But, this is not a dud season by any means, and things can change rapidly.

[dwg71]

see 04 v 05 v 06 scorecard

2004 had 1 named storm at this time, granted by Thursday that will be up to 3.

There have been 4 years when we did not have a hurricane by this point (since 1995)

[Anonymous]

Weve had 3 storms, and a FEW that one could argue could have been close.

I don't see how anyone can call this season inactive.
Its beyond me, it really is.

Exactly... I believe in post-season analysis, the tropical disturbance off the NC coast in June will be an unnamed storm and there is also a chance that the area near ACK in July might be classified a storm, as well.

That is 5 storms by this time, which is well above average, if I am correct with my assumptions.

[jasons2k]

this 2006 atlantic hurricane season is the quietest on record and it will remain that way so people be thankfull that NOBODY's lives are at risk for this 2006 atlantic hurricane season

Umm, check this out:

[rainstorm]

one reason why I think that this season is going to be quiet is that there is too much ull's and wind shear so be thankfull

you make a good point. steve lyons was just on saying its much drier with alot more wind shear than last season. also, there is an ull dropping down west of 91L which wont help it chances. also, the bermuda high has all but vanished on this map. its august, and you expect a very powerful ridge, but its not there

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Normandy]

I just know that people who keep calling this season a dud and hoping for hurricanes might get more then they bargain for later.

Keep knocking on the devil's door, someone is eventually gonna answer.

[MGC]

I personally hope no hurricanes form this season. From first to worst....MGC

[rainstorm]

lets all agree to that, mgc

[jasons2k]

Shear has not been abnormally high either:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatshr.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/wcashr.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/ecashr.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/gmxshr.gif

[Anonymous]

I personally hope no hurricanes form this season. From first to worst....MGC

I want some hurricanes to form...that is not to say that I want hurricanes to hit land, mind you. I just want some out-to-sea storms that give me something to track.

[MiamiensisWx]

you make a good point. steve lyons was just on saying its much drier with alot more wind shear than last season. also, there is an ull dropping down west of 91L which wont help it chances. also, the bermuda high has all but vanished on this map. its august, and you expect a very powerful ridge, but its not there

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006080712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

You keep stating that the eastern U.S. coast will be at a lower risk of landfalls based on what a few models show at 144 hours that can easily change or be off a bit. I'm sorry, but I think you should stop stating that the eastern U.S. coast may have a lower risk for the same reason over and over again based overwhelmingly on fluid dynamics shown and initialized in models that can change quickly.

Besides, a mean trough along the eastern U.S. coast and negative NAO often does NOT decrease the risk of a U.S. landfalling storm along the Eastern Seaboard; in fact, it tends to increase it for the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes. Florida and the Gulf coast isn't the only place that can get hit. This brings back memories of Fran of 1996 - when it began to turn off the Bahamas and Florida coast, because the synoptics did not favor Florida landfall, people began to automatically assume Fran would possibly keep turning to the northeast and miss the eastern U.S. coastline... look what happened in the end - a North Carolina landfall and coastal/inland pounding. That's what happens when you don't look at the synoptics carefully enough.

Please try to support your opinion by using the same, easily changeable reasoning over and over again.

[vacanechaser]

you make a good point. steve lyons was just on saying its much drier with alot more wind shear than last season. also, there is an ull dropping down west of 91L which wont help it chances. also, the bermuda high has all but vanished on this map. its august, and you expect a very powerful ridge, but its not there

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006080712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

You keep stating that the eastern U.S. coast will be at a lower risk of landfalls based on what a few models show at 144 hours that can easily change or be off a bit. I'm sorry, but I think you should stop stating that the eastern U.S. coast may have a lower risk for the same reason over and over again based overwhelmingly on fluid dynamics shown and initialized in models that can change quickly.

Besides, a mean trough along the eastern U.S. coast and negative NAO often does NOT decrease the risk of a U.S. landfalling storm along the Eastern Seaboard; in fact, it tends to increase it for the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes. Florida and the Gulf coast isn't the only place that can get hit. This brings back memories of Fran of 1996 - when it began to turn off the Bahamas and Florida coast, because the synoptics did not favor Florida landfall, people began to automatically assume Fran would possibly keep turning to the northeast and miss the eastern U.S. coastline... look what happened in the end - a North Carolina landfall and coastal/inland pounding. That's what happens when you don't look at the synoptics carefully enough.

Please try to support your opinion by using the same, easily changeable reasoning over and over again.

great point...

and i am getting tired of seeing these people talking about all the upper lows... they do tend to shear the system if in the wrong place at the wrong time... however, we have seen them help intensity and create a better atmosphere aloft for development and increased intensity... you people watch what happens when we get closer to the 15th and beyond... it has been this way in the tropics plenty of seasons.. then after the 15th, like a light switch it changes and we see storm after storm....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[The Sandcrab]

Hey NYHurr06, the WPAC, with Saomai, Maria, and Bopha, are waiting for you:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Anonymous]

Hey NYHurr06, the WPAC, with Saomai, Maria, and Bopha, are waiting for you:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

yes, I know that they are out there, but I really do not want to track something named Bopha. I find it much more interesting when things are in the Atlantic.

[Wthrman13]

If there is not a hurricane formed by the last week in August then this will be a BELOW AVERAGE YEAR!!!! I think as of right now that this will be a less active season because conditions do not look too spectacular out there and do not seem to want to change anytime soon. All the waves coming off of Africa have no chance of forming because they are simply TOO FAR SOUTH. If this does not change come September than this will be the slowest season in the last 10 years. Most past seasons we have seen 2 to 3 Hurricanes by now. We have not even seen a 75 mph hurricane out there yet. If i am wrong then let me eat all the crow there is. Every invest we are watching seems to fizzle out with the atmosphere conditions winning the 2006 season battle SO FAR.

Just what constitutes "too far south" to you? You do realize that tropical cyclones have been known to form within 5 degrees or less of the equator? The reason why the waves coming off the African coast have not developed yet has been more to do with dry air and shear than anything else. Also, recently, the east tropical Atlantic has been dominated by an elongated monsoon trough, and disturbances have been having a tough time breaking off of it to form. This, however, has absolutely nothing to do with the latitude of the waves that have come off the coast.