Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

While the most intense convection is the linear band between about 9N-13N and 47-57W, it appears to be along a low level speed surge, which is enhancing convergence. The best sense of mid level cyclonic turning, as pointed out earlier in this thread, is back behind this area, near 9-10N and 44-45W. MHO is that is the place to watch for any TC development.

Nevertheless, it appears some nasty squalls are headed for the southern Windwards, T&T, the Venezuelan north coast, and eventually, the ABC islands, associated with that speed surge.

I agree with this. If can stay far enough south to avoid the dust cloud and the shear it has a chance to develop before reaching the islands.

[Thunder44]

492
ABNT20 KNHC 221520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[GeneratorPower]

OOOOOO000000ooooooo.....Good ole' Franklin is stepping out on a limb. J/K. At least they are ramping up the wording.

[skysummit]

OOOOOO000000ooooooo.....Good ole' Franklin is stepping out on a limb. J/K. At least they are ramping up the wording.

Yea...no joke! Go Franklin! Go Franklin! Go Franklin!

[WindRunner]

It's about time they mentioned it.

[bob rulz]

It's about time they mentioned it.

Yeah, finally.

[Derek Ortt]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

[gatorcane]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

OK Derek is saying this so my eyebrows are very much raised right now.........

[skysummit]

Oooooohhhh....Go Derek! Go Derek! Go Derek!

[tgenius]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

That's an eye opener indeed....

[beachbum_al]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

Okay you got my attention now! If Derek says something like this then I am paying attention to it.

[GeneratorPower]

So TD#4 could be the sacrificial wave that lets another get going? I wonder which one might be Debby, then.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

My thoughts exactly..

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

actually I'd much rather see TD4 develop that this storm since TD4 appears to be heading out to sea, but ut I guess ya can't always get what you want....

Is a floater over this wave?

[beachbum_al]

So TD#4 could be the sacrificial wave that lets another get going? I wonder which one might be Debby, then.

I didn't think of this until you mention that. Debby, E____, and then Florence. I don't like Florence. Something about her scares me. Maybe it was too many of those reruns of The Jeffersons that my roommate at college used to watch.

The tropics are really firing up now.

[bob rulz]

So TD#4 could be the sacrificial wave that lets another get going? I wonder which one might be Debby, then.

It's also possible that TD#4 could help that wave that's moving across western Africa right now.

Even if TD#4 doesn't do anything it could be the trigger to get this season going for good.

[Derek Ortt]

I was saying this yesterdya at HRD, but did not post publicly until I could see more signs of development, which we are seeing today

[Stormhunter27]

Interesting. I was just chatting with some of my storm chaser buddies and they were saying somethnig similar.

For some odd reason, the GEM (CMC) model seems to have a very good handle on tropical development. Figures. Only us Canadians could come up with a model that works wonders in area that has absolutely nothing what so ever to so with our climate...



M

[skysummit]

The CMC, UKMET, FSUMM5 all develop this wave and bring it into the Carribean. The NAM sees it in the Carribean.

[bob rulz]

This wave definitely has my attention if it has that much model support.